Below-normal rainfall expected across most parts of India this monsoon: IMD

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June to September), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Several rain-fed agricultural regions across the country are expected to witness deficient rainfall, it said.

The IMD has also forecast above-normal heatwave days during June over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are likely to witness below-normal heatwave days.

Climate models indicate the development of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season. El Niño generally suppresses and disrupts monsoon activity, often leading to below-normal rainfall and increased chances of drought.

The southwest monsoon entered parts of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16. As of May 28, it has advanced into parts of the south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, south Bay of Bengal, east-central Bay of Bengal, and covered the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea.

The IMD said El Niño conditions are currently weak but are expected to strengthen in the coming months.

“During June to September 2026, below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except some areas over northwest and northeast India, eastern parts of the south peninsula, adjoining areas of east-central India, and isolated pockets of east India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD said.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said, “The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), consisting of most of the rain-fed agricultural areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal.”

For June 2026, below-normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except parts of northwest India, northeast India, the south peninsula and isolated pockets of central India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.

The IMD said maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most regions, except parts of central, northwest and east India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are expected. Minimum temperatures are also likely to remain above normal across most parts of the country, barring some areas in northwest, central and adjoining south peninsular India.

The weather office warned that deficient rainfall could adversely impact agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability. It may also increase the risk of drought, heat stress and pressure on drinking water resources.

“To minimise these impacts, strategies such as efficient water resource management, promotion of water conservation practices, contingency planning for agriculture, strengthening drought monitoring, use of IMD’s early warning services, and enhanced preparedness in vulnerable sectors are essential,” the IMD said.

India received 121.7 mm rainfall between March 1 and May 27 this year.