Why Lebanon could collapse the US-Iran truce?

Tensions in West Asia have escalated after Iran warned it could target Israel’s financial hub, Tel Aviv, if ongoing military operations do not cease in southern Lebanon.

The warning comes amid a fragile two-week ceasefire understanding between Iran and the United States, following weeks of escalation involving airstrikes, missile launches and drone attacks. While the truce has reduced direct confrontation for now, analysts caution that it remains highly unstable.

A key point of tension remains the situation in Lebanon, where Israel has continued its military operations, reportedly targeting militant positions in the country’s south. Iran has linked its adherence to the ceasefire to developments in this region, raising concerns over a broader escalation.

Adding to international pressure, a spokesperson for the European Commission called on Israel to halt its operations in Lebanon, warning that continued military action could undermine efforts to maintain regional stability, reports Reuters, adding that Lebanon's Hezbollah have urged supporters not to return to targeted areas.

Experts say the Lebanon front is critical to the ceasefire’s survival. Any further escalation could draw Iran back into direct conflict, increasing the risk of a wider regional war.

The unfolding situation highlights the fragile nature of current diplomatic efforts and the complex web of alliances in West Asia, where developments in one conflict zone can rapidly impact broader geopolitical stability.

With no comprehensive agreement in place, the coming days are expected to be crucial in determining whether the ceasefire holds or gives way to renewed hostilities.