Signals from Panaji
COALITION dharma eludes the BJP-led coalition, but everyone within the Sangh Parivar has become its ardent adherent. This fact jumps out of every paragraph of the economic resolution which the BJP national executive endorsed at Panaji.

Quake and the aftermath
IT is almost 10 days since the killer earthquake struck the Garhwal region of Uttar Pradesh but spot reports from the area paint a dismal picture of the situation. Those who have survived the tremors are still living in conditions which are only slightly better than hell.

Flawed selections
SOCIAL psychologists stand a fair chance of striking gold if they were to conduct a study on why Indian cricket selectors behave the way they do. Ajit Wadekar’s contribution to Indian cricket is impressive. As a player he was the perfect team man.
As captain he had the rare ability of getting the best out of every player.

DEALING WITH JAYALALITHA
by T.V. Rajeswar
AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha remarked, after her brief meeting with Congress President Sonia Gandhi at a tea party on March 29 that the event was a political earthquake. That she was not far wide of the mark is seen from the several events beginning with her arrival in Delhi and departure for Chennai on March 30.

Railways living beyond means
by Abha Sharma
“IF the railways were a company listed on stock markets, its share price would have tumbled after the presentation of the rail budget.... As a shareholder in Indian Railways, I would vote for a new chief. It is not yet a BIFR case, but it is heading in that direction”.

Jaya’s threat: new alignment in offing?
by P. Raman
AT A RECENT interface with the media, a leading light of the BJP coalition had put a poser: Why has Jayalalitha been so nasty with us? Why is she constantly putting hurdles in our way? He was at a loss to learn what on earth she would gain by toppling the BJP coalition that had done everything possible to bail her out of the numerous corruption cases against her. Can she get a better deal from the Congress?

Kumaramangalam’s new role!
WHAT was the Union Power and Parliamentary Affairs Minister, Mr P.R. Kumaramangalam, doing at the launch of the Person of Indian Origin card scheme last week, when he had no role in it.

And now the love-pill !
by Darshan Singh Maini
THERE’S perhaps no limit now to the American ingenuity in almost any conceivable area of study, and, of course, no limit to the requirements of their sexual imagination. So, it was not surprising to see a Washington story about the new wonder love-pill which, coming at the heels of the much-abused Viagra, promises to transform the whole scene of romance and love since the story of Adam and Eve.

75 Years Ago

Taking one’s seat in Parliament
TAKING one’s seat in Parliament is amazingly like arriving at school as a new boy. Large, good-natured policemen and lynx-eyed attendants take the newcomer in charge and pass him from hand to hand with a whispered piece of advice.

Signals from Panaji

COALITION dharma eludes the BJP-led coalition, but everyone within the Sangh Parivar has become its ardent adherent. This fact jumps out of every paragraph of the economic resolution which the BJP national executive endorsed at Panaji. The Swadeshi fundamentalists, middle-roaders and no-roaders have all joined to praise the government for the achievements of others, have murmured soft but obvious warnings and sidestepped controversial issues like patents, insurance and disinvestment. The Jayalalitha-induced political tremors partly silenced them and anyway fight has gone out of them after the success of the leadership in wrenching total political control at the November Bangalore meeting. They avoided a confrontation which was certain to go against them. Yet their reluctance to raise pet issues was striking. First came the words of admiration: for the prospect of a 200-million tonne foodgrain harvest this agricultural year, price stability after it soared five months back (the allusion is to onion) and, finally, for the general feel-good factor in the Yashwant Sinha budget. In happier (read the pre-Jaya crisis) days, these half-triumphs would have lifted the spirit and sent the blood racing. She has to come and spoil the party.

Then there was an echo of the Ramakrishna Hegde-Sinha controversy at the meeting. The executive wanted utmost caution in negotiating with the WTO, asked the Commerce Ministry to seek concessions on patent laws on drugs and agricultural products and, finally, demanded a close watch on the impact of the free import of farm and consumer goods on the local market . (Remarkably, there was no protest against opening the import floodgates.) Of course there was severe condemnation of the previous governments for their blind globalisation policy and much against national interests. For obvious reason, the meeting did not spell out the details.

All this does not mean that the meeting was sober and sedate. There were angry words, withering attacks, impassioned appeals to the voters to separate the grain from the chaff and the whole works. The Congress has given up any pretentions to morality and is busy organising the destabilisation of the government, the resolution said. There was a note of disgust and it was genuine and stems from what the BJP unsuccessfully tried to do when the UF government was choking to death. The Left came a close second after the Congress in the BJP’s hate list. The Left has earned the wrath for its unconcealed efforts, so far unrewarding, to pull down the government, but then this act does not constitute a political sin in these days of anything-goes morality. Hence the charge of duplicity and anti-democratic activities.! Here too Ms Jayalalitha’s long shadow dominated the discussion and the political resolution. In the end it was all too obvious that the economic resolution was drafted by the arch political plotter K.N.Govindacharya and the political resolution by the arch polemicist, Mr Venkaiah Naidu. Even the bitter critics of the BJP will miss the soft touch of Mr L.K. Advani. The Jaya spectre is turning a lot of things topsy-turvy in the Sangh Parivar.

Quake and the aftermath

IT is almost 10 days since the killer earthquake struck the Garhwal region of Uttar Pradesh but spot reports from the area paint a dismal picture of the situation. Those who have survived the tremors are still living in conditions which are only slightly better than hell. There are many villages where relief has only now started trickling in. Those who have been rendered homeless have to spend nights in the open not only because of the fear of more earthquakes but also because they have nowhere else to go. An added problem for them is that there are wild cats like leopards in the area to which they can fall prey. But the biggest fear is that if adequate arrangements are not in place soon, rain may spell doom for them. Sunday had brought in light drizzle. If the intensity of the rain increases, the entire salvage operation will come to a naught. There is no doubt that the very scale of the disaster is so large that it is not easy to cope with it. The nature of the terrain is also very harsh. However, it is true at the same time that there is no crisis management system worth the name to cope with such calamities. Timely help is of paramount importance for the survivors but the first reaction of the official machinery is of paralysis. By the time the agencies wake up to their duties, it is already too late for many of the victims. The relief and rehabilitation drive does not go into the top gear even after that. There is mutual bickering between the various departments and the tendency to pass the buck. The corrupt ones do not desist from snatching their pound of flesh even during such times. There are several tales of individual heroism but these are more than overshadowed by the overall picture of neglect. That is what happened during the Malpa landslide tragedy, that is what happened during the Latur and Uttarkashi earthquakes and that is what is happening now. Take the Garhwal region, for instance. It is well known that there are very few land communication lines here and even those are prone to damage during a calamity. But no attempt has been made to acquire a sufficient number of wireless sets.

The administration has its own limitations. But even within those, a lot more can be done. All that is needed is the will to break free of the standard bureaucratic red tape. That can be possible only if we have in place an organisation which can swing into action in such situations without waiting for the green signal from various officers. And this cannot be a one-time exercise. It has to be a never-ending process. The Garhwal quake is not the first; nor the last. Rather, there are already warnings from experts that an even more severe upheaval may strike the whole region very soon. The country has to rise as one to prepare for any such eventuality. As they say in the Army, the more you sweat during peacetime, the less blood is shed during war. Treat natural disasters as a war and the need for remaining fully prepared becomes paramount. Many lessons can be learnt from Japan and the USA in this regard. Both countries have areas which are as quake-prone as, say, Afghanistan. But the loss of life and property there is far less than in other countries. Even China has put in place a long-term plan to cope with crisis situations. It will be over-simplification to say that a poor country like India cannot afford to take those measures. Yes, some of them are expensive indeed, but at least those which are not have to be implemented. Alas, even the warnings of experts are not heeded till it is too late.

Flawed selections

SOCIAL psychologists stand a fair chance of striking gold if they were to conduct a study on why Indian cricket selectors behave the way they do. Ajit Wadekar’s contribution to Indian cricket is impressive. As a player he was the perfect team man. As captain he had the rare ability of getting the best out of every player. In fact, his contribution as manager of the Indian cricket team for several years is largely responsible for Mohammad Azharuddin’s impressive record as captain. And yet Wadekar as chairman of the Indian cricket selection committee is showing all the flaws which prompted Mohinder Amarnath, when he was dropped after helping India win the Asia Cup, to describe the selectors as a “bunch of jokers”. Sunil Gavaskar, the perfect diplomat too was once compelled to express his dismay in public over the flawed selection of the team. Since Wadekar is now the leader of the pack of “five wise men”, he should own moral responsibility for the recent performance of the Indian cricket team and the application of an imperfect yardstick for picking the squad for the World Cup. It was clear that the players in the shortlist of 19 would be tried out during the tri-series which Pakistan won in Bangalore on Sunday.

However, would the selectors care to answer a few questions? For instance, they would have to explain why the talented Sadagoppan Ramesh was not played in all the games. He has been included in the team on the basis of incomplete data. True, he would get the opportunity to prove his temperament during the Sharjah tournament beginning tomorrow. Supposing he fails to deliver, will the World Cup organisers allow changes in the World Cup squad without a valid reason? Amay Khurasiya too has been included in the World Cup team on the strength of one good knock. In fact, the selectors have been unfair to youngsters like Virendra Sehwag, Gyanendra Pandey, Laxmi Rattan Shukla and old warhorse Vinod Kambli by rejecting them without a fair trial. The Indian selectors seem to have the rare ability of destroying the careers of potentially talented cricketers by unceremoniously dumping them after promising them a place in the Indian team. However, the strangest of all the strange selections is that of Debashish Mohanty, the promising fast bowler from Orissa. His name does not figure in the list of 19 but the selectors are confident that the World Cup organisers are not likely to object to his name being included in the squad for England. What is more intriguing is the fact that Mohanty did not play in the just concluded domestic series and is also not in the squad for the Sharjah tournament and yet has been found worthy enough to represent India in the World Cup. Vinod Kambli and Sunil Joshi, who are not in the list of 15, will, however, play in the Sharjah tournament which is supposed to prepare the team for the crucial World Cup next month. Mohinder Amarnath may have had his own reasons for describing the Indian selectors as a “bunch of jokers”, but what they consistently do with team selections is hardly funny.

DEALING WITH JAYALALITHA
Talk of political realignment
by T.V. Rajeswar

AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha remarked, after her brief meeting with Congress President Sonia Gandhi at a tea party on March 29 that the event was a political earthquake. That she was not far wide of the mark is seen from the several events beginning with her arrival in Delhi and departure for Chennai on March 30.

On her arrival in Delhi she was received by no less a person than the Vice-President of the BJP, Mr K.L. Sharma, on the tarmac. In the past she had been received by the then BJP Chief Minister of Delhi, Mr Sahib Singh Verma, a former I&B Minister, Mrs Sushma Swaraj, a former Parliamentary Affairs Minister, Mr Madan Lal Khurana and Mr Pramod Mahajan. Ms Jayalalitha’s car was parked next to the aircraft to take her to her destination immediately on alighting. This courtesy is not extended even to the Chief Ministers. Apparently, the norms were diluted because of Ms Jayalalitha’s “Z” grade security. The two Cabinet ministers from the AIADMK and the rest of the welcoming brigade, which included a South Indian Nagaswaram-Tavil team, waited outside the VIP gate. The ubiquitous TV teams were also on hand, and the visiting VIP obliged with a few remarks. She drove away thereafter followed by her Cabinet ministers, who were seen hurrying along behind her car.

On arrival at Ashoka Hotel, where a suite had been reserved for her, she was received by Prime Minister Vajpayee’s foster daughter with a bouquet. Among those who called on her in her suite, after Ms Jayalalitha shifted to the Taj because of unsatisfactory service by the Central government’s flagship hotel, was Mr Murli Manohar Joshi, former BJP President and ranking number three in the Central government’s hierarchy, after the Prime Minister and the Home Minister.

At the BJP Coordination Committee meeting Ms Jayalalitha raised the issues of Admiral Bhagwat, the continuance of Mr George Fernandes as Defence Minister, etc, as announced by her even earlier and reiterated in Chennai on April 3 in a threatening manner. There were reportedly some heated arguments but eventually the allies supported the Prime Minister in not pursuing the issues raised by her. At the end of the meeting, however, she told the media that she was not satisfied with the outcome and that she had not given up. An exclusive lunch for her was hosted by the Prime Minister on the next day, and this was preceded by a visit of the Prime Minister’s son-in-law, Mr Ranjan Bhattacharya, for an exclusive meeting with Ms Jayalalitha in her suite to sort out the various issues troubling her. However, neither this meeting nor the Prime Minister’s lunch assuaged her, and her reservations and grievances remained, which she openly expressed to the TV crew which followed her like Mary’s lamb. This time she was quite specific that either Admiral Bhagwat should be reinstated or Mr George Fernandes shifted from the Defence Ministry.

The efforts of Mr Fernandes to explain the case, with the files of the Defence Ministry which were reportedly shown to her during a 90-minute session with her, obviously failed to convince her. Incidentally, neither the extra-constitutional authority exercised by Mr Ranjan Bhattacharya in discussing state affairs with Ms Jayalalitha nor the impropriety of the government’s secret files being shown to her by Defence Minister Fernandes seem to be of any consequence to the watchful media as none of the commentators in the Capital had written on the subject.

The brief meeting of Congress President Sonia Gandhi with Ms Jayalalitha at the tea-party hosted by Dr Subramaniam Swamy on March 29 was naturally the most important event. Quite understandably no serious business was discussed by the two women leaders during their brief meeting but this did not prevent Jayalalitha from describing the event as the political earthquake. Although Mrs Sonia Gandhi dismissed it as a social occasion, it has started sounding alarm bells at the BJP headquarters. This feeling is compounded by the fact that Ms Jayalalitha has openly supported the demand of the Congress party for a joint parliamentary committee to enquire into the allegations of Admiral Bhagwat and Mr Mohan Guruswamy, former Economic Adviser in the Finance Ministry. The BJP conclave in Goa on April 1-3 discussed the various emerging scenarios.

The Prime Minister, after an emergency meeting with his Cabinet colleagues and allies on March 30, again rejected the demands of Ms Jayalalitha pertaining to Admiral Bhagwat and Mr Fernandes. However, this cannot be the end of the story since Ms Jayalalitha is persisting with her demands, clearly giving the impression that she is prepared to join hands with the Congress in respect of setting up of a JPC. She said as much when she said on return to Chennai on March 30 that the (political realignment) process had begun. What course the events would take in Parliament when it reassembles on April 15 remain to be seen. By all accounts the next phase in Parliament is bound to be more turbulent than it was earlier. There is talk of bringing in a no confidence motion, either by the Leftists or the Congress, and if that happens the realignment process would be clearly known.

While basking in media glare in the Capital, Ms Jayalalitha addressed various forums. In one of these gatherings she strongly advocated close relationship between India and China, and warned against any thoughtless move for closer links with Pakistan since it is a hostile and unreliable neighbour, as she put it. Thereby she discounted or dismissed the euphoria and the ballyhoo which followed the Prime Minister’s visit to Lahore last month. She was equally dismissive of the Defence Minister’s views on China. Her pronouncements on the rarefied area of foreign policy were a surprise to many since she had only matriculated from a Madras convent school before she entered the film world and later politics. Political muscle apparently brings in its wake intellectual pretensions.

Ms Jayalalitha’s five-day programme in Delhi, the enormous coverage given to her by the visual and print media, the solicitude shown by the BJP, from the Prime Minister downwards, contrasted by the brazen attitude and utterances of Ms Jayalalitha have left many people thinking hard. The question uppermost in their minds is whether she should be allowed to get away with all this, simply because she has 18 MPs of her party under her control. The cruel realisation that these MPs make all the difference between power and wilderness has made Prime Minister Vajpayee bend over backwards in trying to keep her satisfied. He ignored the fact that during his last two visits to Tamil Nadu, Ms Jayalalitha ignored the visits and failed to meet him. The protocol had been turned on its head in accommodating her, and Mr Vajpayee did not even hesitate to induct his family members for playing host to her.

The question which many people ask is whether clinging to power is worth all these adjustments, to put it mildly. Should the Prime Minister of the country stoop to this level just to appease her and keep her on his side, as otherwise his gaddi would not be safe? What would the Chief Ministers, leaders of various political parties and the ambassadors from various countries of the world watching the events in the Capital think of all this?

The latest spat over Minister Rangarajan Kumaramangalam’s taunt to Ms Jayalalitha, the sharp response from her senior colleague from the AIADMK asking if the Prime Minister agreed with what Mr Rangarajan had said and Mr Vajpayee’s clarification that Mr Rangarajan’s remarks were his personal views have brought an uneasy truce. Meanwhile, Dr Subramaniam Swamy has disclosed that one of the main grievances of Ms Jayalalitha is that her demand for the allocation of portfolios of Defence and Petroleum has not been accepted by the Prime Minister. All this only shows that Ms Jayalalitha’s known and unknown agenda is beyond anyone’s guess. The drama is bound to unfold in Parliament when it reassembles on April 15.

Railways living beyond means
by Abha Sharma

“IF the railways were a company listed on stock markets, its share price would have tumbled after the presentation of the rail budget.... As a shareholder in Indian Railways, I would vote for a new chief. It is not yet a BIFR case, but it is heading in that direction”.

This is how an eminent economic journalist expressed shock and dismay over the state of railway finances two years ago. Two years on, things have worsened. This gargantuan government department ends up spending a whopping 95 per cent of its total revenue receipts from freight and passenger traffic on wages (56 per cent), interest (25 per cent) and other establishment expenses. The remaining 5 per cent is too meagre an amount to fund fresh capital investment for the replacement of ageing assets or acquisition of new assets.

What could then be done to meet the capital expenditure requirement? After all, railways have to grow lest the infrastructural shortages should strangle India’s economic growth in the foreseeable future. Can the railways afford to borrow from the market at a more than 15 per cent interest rate while still struggling at the 8.9 per cent rate of return on the capital? Past experience has been none too happy. Even tax-free bonds would not be viable. Yet the market borrowings have been budgeted at Rs 3,000 crore, which constitutes about one-third of the total plan outlay of Rs 9,700 crore for the next fiscal.

Even if the Government of India were to borrow money to invest in the railways, the growing gap between the cost of capital and the railway’s rate of return would, sooner than later, render both the railways and the Government of India interminably sick, opined an analyst.

It is axiomatic that railways’ finances are in dire straits. The scope for mobilising large-scale internal surpluses by raising tariffs is limited due to the proven shift of the transport demand away from the railways. That we do not have good roads and efficient road hauliers is a different matter.

Whereas unrestrained consumption expenditure ought to be reined in and the question of lowering and ultimately abolishing cross-subsidies needs to be addressed in all earnestness, drastic steps are required to be taken to improve efficiency and productivity of labour and capital. The shortfall ought to be made good by cutting costs and making the wage-earners work more efficiently rather than up the fare and freight to cover the increase in input costs. The railways’ corporate plan (1985-2000) envisaged a 15 per cent reduction in the transport cost in real terms. This has remained a pipedream so far. The proposed 4 per cent across-the-board freight hike and the selective increase in sleeper and upper class fare do not inspire confidence in this regard.

If privatisation or corporatisation of the railways sounds too radical a remedy, the rail managers would do well to think of restructuring the behemoth having regard to its functions and activities. Instead of making everything in-house, they can outsource a good number of equipment and services. Not all production units and workshops owned and managed by the railways are being run efficiently. Indiscriminate import of inappropriate and expensive technology has not yielded the desired results.

Indian Railways is unique in being both a highly capital-intensive and labour-intensive organisation at the same time. Given its low-technology base and trade union-oriented work culture, the productivity of both capital and labour remains abysmal. And to cap it all, the largesse worth a few hundred crore of rupees is disbursed every year to the non-gazetted railway staff in the name of productivity-linked bonus. With over four lakh surplus staff still on the railway rolls, the bonus might be linked to anything but productivity!

It is high time the railways shed flab and flexed its muscle to stay sustainable and viable. Correct costing and pragmatic pricing are of vital importance in a market-led economy. The energy efficient and environment-friendly railways need to do a lot to improve the railway station environment — be it sanitation, courtesy, passenger amenities on the ambience. Declaring 1999-2000 as Passenger Year is a statement of the Railway Minister’s intent.

The phenomenal increase in pensionary commitments and other non-plan expenditure at the cost of drastic reduction in the appropriation to the depreciation reserve fund and the capital fund should send alarm bells ringing in Rail Bhavan. This is like selling household items to make both ends meet. Thanks to the prolonged recession, the freight losses this year are estimated to touch Rs 1100 crore.

It is believed that developed countries should be willing to invest in Indian Railways as such investment would enable them to claim an equivalent amount of global carbon dioxide reductions in accordance with various international agreements, if only we could assure them of a sharp reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through an integrated transport policy.

And now the love-pill !
by Darshan Singh Maini

THERE’S perhaps no limit now to the American ingenuity in almost any conceivable area of study, and, of course, no limit to the requirements of their sexual imagination. So, it was not surprising to see a Washington story about the new wonder love-pill which, coming at the heels of the much-abused Viagra, promises to transform the whole scene of romance and love since the story of Adam and Eve.

Briefly, the American medical scientists have come up with a combination of chemicals which would be a boon to all those caught in the coils of spurned, disdained or jilted love. In other words, when the pill hits the market in a few years’ time, it would be the end of all the blues and fevers emanating from the anxiety of failure, separation or loss in love. Each Jack would have his Jill, and each dreaming kitchen-maid mooning a la Bollywood would have her “prince charming” laying orchids at her door each morning to secure her hand. From this account, it would appear that the irrepressible Americans would now leave nothing to chance, fate or destiny — or, even to the Creator! “The American Dream” which the Puritan Pilgrim-fathers had set moving on arrival, it appears, is becoming more and more fabulous, more and more fantastic — and more and more absurd. Having almost legalised every kind of kinky sex and cohabitation, the making of the great love-pill — an invention more far reaching than your computer and other dazzling machines in the history of mankind — cannot but set the imagination of love aflame all over “the global village”. It’s, in sum, a pill that has a more thunderous fall-out than any nuclear dhamaka to date!

Now the Americans are nothing if not supreme shopkeepers for whom the dear dollar is an icon mightier than “the cross”. So, we should soon be seeing ads promising the love-pie in the sky, and I wouldn’t be surprised if an entrepreneur starts booking the bottles — the deal, the deal is the thing — in advance calling it Monica Lewinsky pills, if you like! No, I’m not joking: When the Bill-Monica story of furtive love in the corridors of the Oval office first saw light of the day in the American media, an enterprising Yankee soon came out with “Monica beds”, and the bookings started pouring in like “cats and dogs”, to recall a cliche. The American erotica, indeed, offers endless variations — and varieties to the imagination of obscenity.

Well, if the American merchants of Eros expect to have a field-day, there’s, at the same time, a great threat to another industry — that of the common love-stories and novels, of films and theatre, of sexual glossies and dream-magazines. Yes, sir, there’s indeed, every possibility of even the hallowed love tragedies — Romeo and Juliet, Heer and Ranjha etc — soon going out of business and books. Poetry, in particular, is in great danger, for the muses feed ravenously only on slaughtered dreams and desires. And when the pill of “paradise” on earth has for ever nullified “arrows” and “stings” of arrant love, who’s going to bother about Shakespeare’s love-sonnets, or Keat’s odes, or Yeats’s dark poems of baulked and botched love? Why, this means, even the end of the teachers of literature whose chief “vocation” would be gone! As one who spent nearly half a century waxing eloquent over Shakespeare’s “dark lady” and his heroines from the tragic Desdemona to the majestic Cleopatra, and whetted the imagination on the ill-fated heroines in world fiction, amongst other thrills of teaching, I thank my stars for the providential “escape”. The pill’ll soon be on one’s “brain” causing an unbearable neural itch, to paraphrase a D.H. Lawrence thought on the American sexuality and its obsessive voyeuristic character.

But do the American inventors know in the Orient, such potions of love made from fabulous stones and herbs and tiger-bones are already a part of “old wives’ tales”? Or that the amulets of love sought by unhappy Heers and Sohnis from fakirs and dargahs are to be had for a song often with disastrous consequences? I guess, nothing’s going to stop the Americans till some disgruntled vendors and users of the pill (still a decade away) slap an apple-pie in the face of the hopeful Nobel Prize winners!

Jaya’s threat: new alignment in offing?

by P. Raman

AT A RECENT interface with the media, a leading light of the BJP coalition had put a poser: Why has Jayalalitha been so nasty with us? Why is she constantly putting hurdles in our way? He was at a loss to learn what on earth she would gain by toppling the BJP coalition that had done everything possible to bail her out of the numerous corruption cases against her. Can she get a better deal from the Congress?

In an era of deal-based politics, such queries have special significance. Unlike Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha is neither chimerical nor whimsical to indulge in periodic emotional bouts of anger. Cunning and calculating, her initial outbursts are aimed at extracting new concessions. To describe it as a tantrum to keep herself in the limelight, as some observers have interpreted, is nothing but underestimating her real intentions. She is the one with her own constituency; a clear personal agenda and a ruthless game plan. She has never been rated as an irresponsible politician who would revel in unwanted controversies.

Jayalalitha turned intransigent the moment the BJP began ignoring what she considered her legitimate demands like the Finance Ministry for Subramanian Swamy. In 1988, it was she who had first forged an alliance with the BJP when it was reeling under the pains of political isolation. This had paved the way for others like Ramakrishna Hegde and Mamata Banerjee to jump on to the BJP “rath”. Thus Jayalalitha had from the very beginning claimed a special status for herself. Instead, according to her, she was subjected to intrigues and conspiracy by Vajpayee’s political managers. She would, therefore, never pardon Vajpayee for breaking the formidable alliance she had assiduously built at the state level.

This alone explains her persistent efforts to embarrass the Vajpayee Government at every opportunity. If she did not push it to the brink so far, it has been due to tactical reasons. Now she has reached a stage when she has extracted the maximum possible concessions from the coalition with regard to her corruption cases. No other dispensation can possibly bend the law further and misuse powers to help her out of the muddle than what has already been done by the Vajpayee Government. It has been constitutional and legal hurdles, and not political willingness, that had prevented further manipulations. By joining hands with the Congress, she can now politically legitimise all such systemic perversions.

Apparently, Jayalalitha has three reasons to throw down the gauntlet. First, by politically hobnobbing with the Congress, she can expect to blunt the Opposition criticism of the administrative meddling aimed blocking the legal process in her corruption cases. Vajpayee, who allowed the mindless meddling, cannot in any case condemn it. Now as a friend, the Congress and other Opposition parties will be forced to wink at all such judicial manipulations. This will virtually mean an “all-party consensus”, with the exception of the DMK, TMC and the Left, but not necessarily the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha. By far, this is the most effective use of one’s numerical strength for brushing the corruption charges under the carpet.

Second, even if she makes a tactical retreat from the present confrontation, it will enable her to put up a better political bargain with the both the BJP and the Congress. Third, by seeking to pull down the BJP Government, she is apparently visualising a realignment of parties in Tamil Nadu. With the lacklustre performance of the BJP Government, “marketing” of Vajpayee is no longer profitable. Every time one cannot expect a “Coimbatore blast” to come to the rescue. Her rupture with the local allies like the MDMK and Ramamurthy’s one-man party is complete. She thinks such allies had reaped an electoral harvest last time due to her halo.

The every thought of their treachery at the prodding of the BJP angers her. Every time she insists on “returning” to her the Petroleum portfolio given to Ramamurthy on her recommendation, she betrays her fury over the hijacking of her allies by the BJP. Political poaching, whether by the BJP or Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP, is the worst kind of treason in coalitional politics. For Jayalalitha, a revival of the old arrangement with the Congress is the only logical alternative to the 1998 alliance with her half a dozen tiny allies. Even on the eve of the 1998 polls, she had kept her options open until the last minute. The Congress lost the game due to delay on the part of Sitaram Kesri.

No doubt, without the Tamil Maanila Congress, the present state unit is going to prove a pale shadow of the old one. G.K. Moopanar is not likely to tolerate Jayalalitha as an ally in any arrangement. The only hope for the Congress will be the Sonia factor. But its effect in Tamil Nadu is yet to be tested. Though the TMC itself has problems with the DMK, politically and arithmetically Moopanar will find the present alliance more homogeneous. This means, there will be a three-way alliance in the state. The post-poll implications of such an arrangement are going to be complex, if the ruling party at the Centre requires the support of both for a majority.

An inevitable outcome of the Jayalalitha episode and the changing political alignments will be the heralding of an era of ethical permissiveness. The last two decades were marked by organised anti-corruption campaigns by the Opposition parties. Rajiv Gandhi began as “Mr Clean” and ended in ignominy of the Bofors scam. The Narasimha Rao Government had the distinction of being the most corrupt, both in terms of the number of scandals and the volume involved. For some time now, the Vajpayee Government, too, has been avoiding inquiries into similar allegations against its ministers. By and large, the National Front and UF regimes have been free from such scandals.

As against the 80s and 90s, political parties in India are now rapidly getting into the trap of an identity crisis of their own making. Even those parties who have managed to leave a clean record are being forced to dine with corrupt leaders. Jayalalitha’s case has been a typical one. The BJP, which still talks of the Bofors scandal, conveniently played down her corruption in exchange of her support to the government. It transferred the judges hearing her corruption cases, appointed her workers as central government pleaders\ayee did everything possible to keep her in good humour.

Every BJP ally similarly compromised on its own stated anti-corruption plank. For the Samata Party, Laloo Prasad Yadav alone is bad. George Fernandes, who had described Jayalalitha as the “mother of the corruption”, rushed to Chennai frequently to seek her blessings for the BJP Government. In early February, when Jayalalitha and Mamata Banerjee boycotted the meeting of the coordination committee, Fernandes made his last mission to Chennai. Within hours of his visit came the announcement of the transfer of her cases to a new judge. For Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha suddenly become her “elder sister”.

The Congress under Sonia Gandhi began with a clean slate. During the past one year the party has been experimenting with a new ethical culture and moral model for its workers. Despite their better chances of winning, the party denied tickets to those with a criminal record and tarnished image. By doing so, it had taken a big risk. However, compulsions of power politics made the same party to align with Jayalalitha. For those like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Laloo Yadav’s corruption is condonable. The competitive wooing of the corrupt as a strategy to wrest power will eventually lead to bestowing sainthood to the worst wrong-doers. This is the tragedy of the contemporary Indian politics.

When politics becomes a game of numbers, even those parties with a relatively clean record will be tempted to compromise on principles. In 1997, the Left had taken a bold decision to dissociate itself from Laloo Prasad Yadav following his charge-sheeting in the fodder scam. Two years later, the same parties have been forced to sit with him on a common platform, to fight what they consider a bigger evil. This time the Left refused to attend Jayalalitha’s tea party. Soon a situation can emerge when they will have to sustain a government in which Jayalalitha and Laloo Prasad Yadav will also be represented.

What will happen when political morality and ethics remain subject to relativity? Indian voters have so far exercised their franchise in such a way as to punish the wayward and the corrupt. This electoral pressure has acted as a restraint on crafty politicians. The increasing political promiscuity and ethical permissiveness are bound to deprive the electorate of the opportunity to act as arbiters of political integrity and excellence.

Apart from this, there is enough reason to fear a return of the worst kind of political manipulations and defection engineering. With Jayalalitha’s confrontation heading for a showdown, already there is talk of “splits” and offers of cushy posts for “converts”. Vulnerable members are being marked for special attention as the game of numbers seems unavoidable. As of now, the ruling alliance remains sharply divided about the strategy to meet the confrontation.

An influential section of the BJP leadership is pressing for a trial of strength which could become successful if it could lead to a realignment in the present Lok Sabha. They argue that once the party musters the loyalty of enough MPs from vulnerable groups to compensate for the loss of Jayalalitha, they could be “permanent peace”. This will enable the coalition to show real results on the basis of which it could return to power in the subsequent election. If this view prevails, it will mean a new era of defection politics at the Centre.

Kumaramangalam’s new role!

WHAT was the Union Power and Parliamentary Affairs Minister, Mr P.R. Kumaramangalam, doing at the launch of the Person of Indian Origin card scheme last week, when he had no role in it.

The function was organised by the Union Home Ministry and the date for it was fixed in advance. On the dias, there were four chairs, one for Mr M.B. Kaushal, Special Secretary (Home), Mr B.P. Singh, Home Secretary, Mr L.K. Advani, the Union Home Minister and Mr K. Raghunath, Foreign Secretary. At the 11th hour another chair was pushed in between Mr Advani and Mr Raghunath which was occupied by Mr Kumaramangalam.

It is after this function, that Mr Kumaramangalam attacked the AIADMK chief, Ms J. Jayalalitha, which virtually brought the government on its knees. Mr Kumaramangalam is known to be a pro-active player in the Home Minister’s camp which does not have the best of relations with the Prime Minister.

Political circles are wondering whether it was a ploy by Mr Advani who is reportedly unhappy over the treatment being meted out to the BJP by its allies.

It may be recalled that the tie-up with the AIADMK was arrived at when Mr Advani was the President of the party, which later on was onpassed to his chosen successor, Mr Kushabhau Thakre. Mr Advani wants that the BJP to emerge better in the new political canvas after fresh elections. Was the Power Minister made a pawn in the game?

Whatever it is, the Parliamentary Affairs Ministry in Mr Vajpayee’s government is achieving a dubious distinction. Earlier, Mr Madan Lal Khurana and now Mr Kumaramangalam had distinguished themselves by putting their foot in the mouth. Coincidentally, Mr Khurana’s outburst was at BJP’s national executive at Bangalore in January and while Mr Kumaramangalam’s attack was just ahead of another executive at Goa.

PIO for PoK residents?

The launch of the Person of Indian Origin card scheme on the last day of the previous financial year by the Union Home Minister, Mr Lal Krishan Advani, was a much-hyped affair, notwithstanding the now famous Ranga-attack on Jayalalitha.

The BJP, which Mr Advani said, was favourable to the issue of dual citizen, a consistent demand of Indians residing overseas, however, could get the closest by formally launching the PIO scheme.

After all, it was one of the first schemes announced by the government through its first budget in the Lok Sabha last year and Mr Advani’s Ministry was given the overall responsibility to prepare the document and draw up its eligibility criteria.

The document, of course, would not be available to the PIOs who are now citizens of either Pakistan or Bangladesh.

Having categorically stated, Mr Advani was asked at the formal function as to in what category would the Indian government treat if the residents of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), as it is known, apply for the PIO.

Perhaps taken aback by the question, the Union Home Minister pondered for a while before coming up with an equally loaded answer “it has to be considered, after all it (PoK) is part of the country’’.

Shiela’s birthday cake

It was expected to be a quiet birthday party before some enthusiastic colleagues spoilt it.

Well, the point in case is the recent birthday celebration by the Delhi Chief Minister, Mrs Shiela Dikshit which fell on March 31.

All was well till the time the morning dailies carried pictures of the Chief Minister slicing the cake with a knife. Well, isn’t it natural to do so? one may be tempted to ask. But, no said the BJP.

The Leader of the Opposition, Mr Jagdish Mukhi, raised the issue in the Delhi Legislative Assembly charging that the Chief Minister had sliced the National Flag.

The BJP MLAs stalled the proceedings before walking out of the House stating that the cake was in the form of the Tricolour.

The Chief Minister maintained she did not show any disrespect to the national flag and the cake which was brought in by workers of the party as a gesture of affection had a small impression of the national flag. “I had just cut a small piece from the corner and did not touch the flag’’. The Speaker, Mr Prem Singh later ruled that the Chief Minister did not insult the national flag. Quite a party it must have been.

More on tell-tale tape

More now has been learnt about last week’s tell-tale tape episode. The first information report about the incident was filed in Bijwasan police station which falls under South-West police district whose headquarters is in the same complex as Vasant Vihar police station.

So the time-bomb is ticking not in plush Vasant Vihar colony but rural Bijwasan where a businessman alleged that an unsavoury character who was picked up by the police in the past for offences under suppression of illegal traffic act. The businessman charged that the other person was trying to browbeat him citing his VVIP connections which reach the very top of the political and administrative ladder.

It remains to be seen if the Delhi Police which is stung by the adverse publicity will use the current fluid political situation to gain something positive by letting the cat out of the bag.

(Contributed by SB, KV Prasad and PN Andley)

75 YEARS AGO

Taking one’s seat in Parliament

TAKING one’s seat in Parliament is amazingly like arriving at school as a new boy. Large, good-natured policemen and lynx-eyed attendants take the newcomer in charge and pass him from hand to hand with a whispered piece of advice. They have a word of encouragement.

They pass him on until he reaches the inner lobby just outside the Chamber itself.

Here two imposing functionaries in Court dress with immense gold insignia — the two doorkeepers of the Chamber — give him a dignified greeting, point out the post office and advise him to ask for letters.

Other members begin to flow in through the swing doors.

Old members are judged by the smiles of recognition from the police and the staff.

For the most part, they snatch their letters and hurry away to the library to deal with them, but one or another, seeing an obvious newcomer, comes up, introduces himself and offers to show the “new boy” round the buildings.

They go into the Chamber and he describes how Mr Asquith or Mr Lloyd George thundered at the Government from this place or that, and explains the mysteries of the table and what you may say standing up and what you may say sitting down.