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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
![]() Friday, February 12, 1999 |
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spotlight today's calendar |
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Big
churning up again AN
OVER-BURDENED GOVT
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Gujral
doctrine one-way policy? Two
Punjabs in Sydney
Plague
at Delhi |
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Big churning up again POLITICS is once again in a deep flux. This time the spotlight is not on the BJP and its restless or mercurial allies but on the Congress and other non-BJP parties. They are engaged in an intricate political dance. The just concluded chintan shivir of the Congress at Hardwar has brought out the arresting and aggressive nature of the shift of its political focus. The party says it will keep its distance from the Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, and it is final. That means that the anti-SP tilt will be valid for at least a few months, the time needed to build on the favourable popular mood and test the viability of going it alone. The strident new stance is based on two calculations. One, the BJP has lost its base among the upper castes, particularly the Brahmins. It itself has regained the confidence of the Muslims and a section of the poor. If this assessment is realistic, its support base will be slightly more than 30 per cent, a phenomenal explosion from the miserable mid-single digit in last general election. For this to become a winning proposition, there should ideally be a three-cornered or, better still, a four-cornered contest for all seats assembly and parliamentary. So Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav should fight the elections in the company of marginal parties like the Janata Dal and the Left and keep his traditional share of one-fifth of the votes. Hence the no-holds barred attack on his party and repeated declaration that the Congress will eliminate and liquidate the outfit. There is a bonus to be had from this high-decibel war on casteist forces. It will sow confusion among the upper castes and non-Yadav other backward castes, who emotionally subscribe to the sentiment. In nominal terms, the BJP is bracketed with the SP, but Congressmen believe that the Hindutva party has lost steam and also it is essential that it takes away as many votes as the SP, to let their party emerge as the first past the post. The first to realise the Congress game plan is the Left. This explains its renewed criticism of the former ruling party and also shedding of its anti-Laloo Yadav stance. If the Left parties have to break out of the 50-seat deadend in Parliament, they have to take firm roots in the Hindi heartland and for the CPI to recapture its base in Bihar and UP. All this has created an acute dilemma for the Janata Dal. Its Bihar unit is still smarting under the body blows Mr Laloo Yadav has dealt it and it would rather commit harakiri than seek his help. It means that the UP branch has to go its own way and join the third force to retain a modicum of political credibility. The two regional parties
the DMK and the Telugu Desam Party which
lent solidity to the erstwhile United Front, are worse
off. The TDP has a major challenge in its hands. It has
to fight the assembly election in November and the main
contender is the Congress. The option of having a loose
understanding with the BJP, which polled 18 per cent in
February last year, is not open to it. A tie-up with the
Sangh Parivar will provoke the Muslims, who constitute
more than 12 per cent of the electorate, to desert it in
droves. The Left (8 per cent) has disowned the party for
the sin of supporting the BJP-led government at the
Centre. So Mr Chandrababu Naidu is making confident
noises, hoping he would win over his old base. The DMK
may well end up being friendless. That party is a sure
loser. |
Welcome poll panel steps BUOYED by the success of electronic voting in four States recently, the Election Commission has decided to expand the experiment to far more constituencies during the Legislative Assembly elections due later this year. The exact number of such constituencies has not been worked out yet, but it is definitely going to be many times more than the 16 constituencies where it has been just tried out. In fact, the more it is, the better it will be because the electronic voting machines have proved their worth so well that there is need for introducing them all over the country at the earliest. The machines were purchased more than eight years ago but remained idle because of the apathy of the officials and opposition of political parties, which was due to wrong notions in most cases. There is need to make up for the lost time. In a country of India's size, conducting elections without such latest gadgets not only leads to unnecessary delays but also encourages those bent upon fouling the election results. As we mentioned in an earlier editorial, the electronic machines are tamper-proof and also reduce the scope of booth-capturing and bogus voting. An interesting feature of the forthcoming elections will be that these machines will be introduced in a large number of rural constituencies. Critics of the advancement have been saying that the voters of these areas may not be able to use the machines properly. Exactly the opposite might come true. Even illiterate voters know the election symbols of various candidates. Pressing a button next to the symbol of a particular candidate may be easier than using a stamp. The names of constituencies where these will be introduced will be announced well in advance. Training will be imparted to those handling the machines. If at all some shortcomings are noticed, these can be easily removed before the machines are introduced on an all-India level. There may be some teething troubles but here is an idea whose time has come. The Election Commission
seems to be going in for computerisation in a big way in
other fields as well. Now that a countrywide summary
revision of electoral rolls has been ordered, it is
proposed to computerise these rolls in many places. As
most voters know, the electoral rolls can be the
repository of thousands of mistakes, removing which can
be a herculean task. Complaints of missing names abound.
Most of these errors creep in because each time the rolls
are revised, these have to be composed and printed
afresh. Naturally, carrying out any correction proves to
be a very tedious and laborious job. Computerisation can
change all that. Moreover, these will be available in a
CD-ROM format, ensuring that carrying them from one place
to another will be very easy. The information will also
be available on the Internet. District towns will be
linked with the Election Commission headquarters through
computers so that results can be declared fast. These
hi-tech advancements may not exactly revolutionise the
conduct of the elections, but these will certainly make
the exercise less cumbersome. |
AN OVER-BURDENED GOVT NO words of praise are enough for the government which finally appears to have got its act together, to begin hacking at the countrys runaway subsidy bill. The fact that with a small rollback in rationed commodities prices for those below the poverty line, the government has managed to get its allies to go along with it in reducing subsidies by around Rs 3,000 crore, is all the more praiseworthy. After all, as the Finance Secretary pointed out after the hike, ration prices for wheat and rice have not been raised for close to four years, while procurement prices have been increasing steadily. Similarly, with close to half the urea subsidy actually accruing to inefficient local fertiliser units instead of to farmers, there was really no case to allow subsidies to inflate the way they have. Unfortunately, for reasons of populism, no government in the past few years had the will to cut subsidies. Forget about cutting subsidies, the great left liberal Prime Minister Mr I.K. Gujral, gave such a huge largesse to striking bureaucrats that this brought the economies of most state government to their knees. After the Central hike, state governments are expected to shell out a whopping Rs 35,000 crore extra to their bureaucrats who are demanding, justifiably, parity with their Central counterparts. So serious is the problem that in its latest report on the Indian economy, the World Bank has said that despite the one-time windfall from last years VDIS revenues, the states will be in a very tough position this year. The bank says, Central government employees pay was raised by much more than the Pay Commission recommended (0.6 per cent of the GDP). Moreover, the award was not accompanied by any measure to increase efficiency and the Pay Commissions proposal to reduce staff by 30 per cent over 10 years and eliminate unfilled positions was rejected as part of the final wage settlement. What is unfortunately, despite last weeks wonderful performance, is that Mr Atal Behari Vajpayees government has still not really come to grips with the problem. A very small but telling example of the way in which the government continues to let its expenditure run out of control, of course, is the manner in which ministers and bureaucrats are being allowed to travel the world over for the roadshows being organised by the Ministry of Petroleum right now. Since the roadshows are being organised to attract prospective oil companies to drill for oil in the country, they should be conducted by technical experts such as the DG, Hydrocarbons, Mr Avinash Chandra and his team of specialists. What we have, along with Mr Chandra, unfortunately, is the minister, Mr Vazhapady Ramamurthy going along for the London leg of the roadshow, his deputy Santosh Gangwar in other places, and Secretary Vijay Raghavan in yet another leg of the roadshow. Doesnt the government realise that what investors are looking for are facts, not just speeches? The bill for all this first class, all expenses paid, travel, will probably be passed on to one of the poor oil companies. Mr Vajpayee, to be fair to him, did deny Mr Vazhapady permission to go for all the roadshows, and asked him to restrict himself to just one location. He did the same for Mr Gangwar. The point, however, is that he should not have allowed them to go at all. There is no earthly purpose that either of them could have served in any of the roadshows, except for wasting the potential investors time! Juxtapose this approach with the length and tortuous nature of the journey that still has to be traversed, and you know that the country is in for serious trouble if far more serious action is not taken quickly. How far the government needs to go on the subsidy front, of course, is best illustrated by the white paper on the subject prepared by Mr P.Chidambaram when he was the Finance Minister. That paper showed that of the total subsidy bill of Rs 1,37,338 crore in 1994-95, only Rs 35,193 crore was accounted for by what can be called merit goodsthat is elementary education, public health and basic infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Apart from the amount of money that the government spends on subsidies, there is, of course, the entire issue of whether or not it reaches the target audience. According to a study done by well-known agriculture economist Ashok Gulati, most of the fertiliser subsidy does not even go to the farmer 50 per cent of it is actually used to subsidise inefficient producers of fertiliser! In the case of urea, for example, it may actually be cheaper for the government to import than to pay subsidies to all the producers most of the new units, for example, are expensive producers of fertilisers and are able to survive only because they are subsidised by the government. Mr Gulatis study, interestingly, was also submitted to the Fertiliser Ministry several months ago, but no action has been taken so far. This, in fact, was revealed to journalists by Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha when he met them for a pre-budget meeting. Mr Chidambarams paper also showed that in areas such as irrigation, higher education or even health services, the government (Central as well as the states) recovers less than 5 per cent of the cost. Now subsidising the poor and the needy is fine, but there has to be some limit to the cost that the government can bear. After all, what suffers because of the government getting over-burdened by subsidies is the other growth-inducing expenditure by the state. In NTRs Andhra Pradesh, with populist schemes like the two rupees a kg rice becoming the order of the day, capital expenditure fell from 3.5 per cent of the GDP in 1990-91 to 2.2 per cent in 1995-96. From one of the faster-growing states, Andhra Pradesh began slipping badly from a growth rate of 5.5 per cent through the 1980s, to below 4 per cent in the early 1990s. NTRs son-in-law, Chandrababu Naidu, is still fighting with this legacy. Such is the duplicity of Indias politics, of course, that while Mr Naidu is battling the crippling effects of subsidies in his own state, he has opposed Mr Vajpayees attempts to cut subsidies and is threatening to withdraw support to the government. There is no point in even talking of the disgusting behaviour of parties like the Congress which, despite having been in government for so long, are aware of how severe the problem is, but are still trying to make political capital out of it. Given the severity of the fiscal deficit problem that the Finance Minister talks of almost every day now, it is likely that we will see some new measures in the forthcoming budget to cut the subsidy bill. We will also, in all probability, see a cess imposed on diesel and petrol, to raise the much-needed resource for developmental spending. Though important, all this represents just one-time savings or one-time revenue augmentation. All right. So we will save Rs 3,000 crore and hopefully a little more on subsidies in the next financial year. But, along with the whole issue of subsidies, a very important related question is that of getting the government off the public sectors back. Close to 40 per cent of
the countrys capital is invested here and the
returns are next to negligible. Tackle this area and a
large part of the countrys financial troubles will
get fixed automatically. The antics of most ministers,
however, show that public sector units continue to be
milch cows to be used for granting all manner of favours
to political bosses between Rs 2 crore and Rs 3
crore to set up schools in a ministers
constituency. If the government is really serious about
reforms, it needs to tackle this area as well on a
war-footing. Nothing could be more tragic than the
government allowing its allies or the Opposition to
prevent it from making radical changes in the gargantuan
subsidy and the haemorrhaging PSU empire. If the
government fails to do so, a Mexican or Brazilian-style
disaster is just round the corner. |
Factors behind the turmoil in
Bihar AS elsewhere in the country, the acute poverty and resultant social turmoil in Bihar can be traced to the backwardness of three vital sectors of the economy primary, secondary and tertiary. Acknowledged geographical or technological factors such as floods, drought, population growth, religio-caste conflicts, and poor developmental infrastructure do play their role. Backwardness, social upheaval, geopolitical divide, etc, are related to the inequitous and exploitative socio-economic system and almost total collapse of the administrative machinery to the extent where it is being frequently proclaimed that the state has withered away in Bihar. To understand the Bihar crisis, one has to scan first the geographical profile of the state. Bihar is inhomogeneous with regard to the distribution of natural resources and developmental patterns. It is divided into two distinct physical regions the plains in the north and the plateau in the south. The plains region is alluvial. It is further divided by the Ganga into two unequal parts north Bihar plain and south Bihar plain. The south Bihar plateau, where the Jharkhand movement has gained ground, covers 48 per cent of the states area. Its topography is undulating, rocky and forested. Despite a good rainfall, it is not afflicted by floods. The major economic weakness of this region lies in its poor agricultural base, which is unable to produce food for its rapidly growing population. Barely 30 per cent of the total land is the net area sown as compared to 50 per cent in the state as a whole. Almost 90 per cent of the cropped area is rain-fed. Forests account for 30 per cent of the total area. The composition of the population shows that 92 per cent of Bihars Scheduled Tribes are concentrated in the Bihar plateau, whereas 60 per cent of the Scheduled Castes reside in north Bihar. Currently, both parts of Bihar north and south are facing an acute socio-economic political unrest. Though there has been urban and industrial development in the plateau region, local tribal population feels alienated because of two reasons. Economic development did not change their standard of living and the tribals have been outnumbered by the non-locals whom they consider plunderers. Consequently, they demand a separate Jharkhand state (intelligently named as Vananchal by the existing Central establishment). Even the creation of Vananchal wont bring peace in the area because of two reasons. First, the Jharkhand region, which is geographically a homogeneous unit, also extends into the adjoining states of West Bengal, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh. Second, the war of attrition would start between the locals and the non-locals after its formation. In such a geopolitical scenario the incidence of poverty has become so severe that over half of the states population lives below the poverty line. The crime graph has sharply gone up. The prevailing situation is so alarming that some people sarcastically remark that jungle raj prevails in Bihar. But the truth of the matter is that the era of planned economic development and social harmony never dawned upon Bihar. The masses continuously suffered at the hands of a corrupt political leadership, inefficient bureaucracy, social apartheid and well-organised sections of government and semi-government employees. The socio-economic realities corroborate this. Truly, economic development is the offspring of a composite function of primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. The Census of India figures reveal a retrogressive pattern in the employment structure of Bihar. The share of the primary sector has increased from 80.2 per cent in 1961 to 82.3 per cent in 1991. The secondary sectors share went down drastically from 8.2 per cent in 1961 to 4.6 per cent in 1991. Similarly, no perceptible change has been noticed in the tertiary sector, as it increased from 11.4 per cent in 1961 to 13.0 per cent in 1991. This apart, Bihar also continues to be discriminated against in the allocation of licences for setting up industries in its backward regions. For example, during 1980-85 alone the backward areas of the state received only 18 industrial licences as against 173 given to Tamil Nadu, 171 to Gujarat, 153 to Uttar Pradesh and 152 to Maharashtra. Whatever meagre development that took place in Bihar remained unevenly distributed in a highly caste-ridden society. It gave birth to radical movements representing peasant, labour and caste interests that led to social strife and violence. Inter-caste wars have been witnessed in the state for the past 50 years or so. Private armies were formed on caste lines that took part in bloody inter-caste clashes. Such militant outfits as have been active from time to time include the Azad Sena of the Brahmins, the Kaur Sena of the Rajputs, the Shri Krishna Sena of the Yadavas, the Bhumi Sena of the Kurmis, the Shoshit Smajwadi Sena of the backward classes and dalits and now the Ranbir Sena. Unless steps are taken to
check the unevenness in the development of states, it
would become increasingly difficult to handle
geopolitical and social upheavals. The situation may go
out of control one day. |
Gujral doctrine one-way policy? THERE are countries which are not inclined to be friendly with India. Their degree of hostility may differ. But they can never be anything but critical and non-cooperative. This is true of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The Pakistanis consider themselves as former rulers of India and as descendants of the Afghan, Iranian, Turkish and Uzbeg conquerors. Every one of them is proud of his ancestry. No Indian can be their hero. They have generally contempt for Indians. The Bangladeshis are almost all converts. Perhaps mostly from backward castes. They had no share of the glory of ruling over India. In fact, they were not even thought of as good Muslims, and were put through a severe purification programme during the last century to purge them of Hindu elements. So it is not surprising if the Pakistanis treat the Bengal Muslims with contempt. Bhutto would not entertain the prospect of an East Bengali (Mujibur Rahman) coming to rule over Pakistan! It was an anathema to him, and he was ready to break up his country rather than allow the East Bengalis rule over Pakistan. We know all these facts. But it never occurred to us that a different approach was called for towards Bangladesh. We failed to frame such a policy. This was a great blunder. When we did come to have a different policy to the eastern wing, it was in response to a crisis. Ten million refugees (mostly Hindus), who fled Bangladesh to escape the military repression let loose by the Pakistan army, had taken shelter in India. We had to send them back and the only way to do so was by setting up the nationalist forces of Bangladesh in power. That is what we did during the 1971 war at great cost to us. But we had no clear policy to deal with the newly independent Islamic state. The pro-Pak elements turned against India. And lot of people were suspicious of Indias intentions. This was true of the East Bengal army. So, instead of following a determined policy as the Americans did in Japan to bring about democracy, Mrs Gandhi let the Sheikh handle the job. And he was a good and trusting man. He trusted everybody, even the Pak-trained officers. As a result, the fundamentalists and India-haters were able to establish themselves. But their follies (corruption, for instance) finally caught up with them and they were exposed for what they really were. They have no love for India. But the masters of the coup, which ousted Banglabandhu, did not count on the Bangla culture. It is what helped to bring back the Awami League to power. The coming to power of Sheikh Hasina, the Banglabandhus daughter, did give India new opportunity to re-shape its policies. Some credit for this must go to Inder Gujral. But Sheikh Hasina has not been able to take any new initiative. One finds an unwillingness on her part to take bold decisions. Take for example, water management. It is a vexing problem. Gujral managed an acceptable division of the Ganga waters. But what is needed is more water. For this, neither he nor Sheikh Hasina had an answer. Annual floods and heavy rains this is the lot of the north-eastern people. In all these years we have done nothing to relieve them from their annual curse. And there was only one explanation for it non-cooperation by Bangladesh. India proposed the construction of a multi-purpose canal linking Brahmaputra and Ganga to take off the surplus water of Brahmaputra and to replenish the Farrakha. This water would have kept the Calcutta port in top gear. But Bangladesh refused to cooperate. Instead, it asked India to seek Nepals help in creating reservoirs to store up water for a lean season. Similarly, one of the major problems that we have is the want of a proper communication of a rail/road/air network to link with the North-East. This could have boosted the mutual trade of the region. But again Dhaka objected. Then, again, the North-East states suggested that they be allowed to use the Chittagong port to export their goods. Again, Dhaka turned it down. It is Gujrals one way street policy in action. It is not that we have no goodwill for this country of great poverty. But how can one retain it in the face of total non-cooperation? Now Sheikh Hasina wants to create a power grid. Almost the entire burden will be on India and Nepal. Bangladesh will be a mere beneficiary. As for utilising the gas of Bangladesh for chemical and power industries, there is a strong opposition to any such deal. This is for want of trust. India is serious about promoting regional cooperation. It wants a linkage with Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal, the North-East and Bhutan. Thailand and Myanmar are important for us. It was the Janata Party which signed the five-year agreement on sharing the Ganga water at Farrakha. Again, it was the Janata Dal which took the initiative to hand over the Teen Bigha corridor in West Bengal to Bangladesh on a perpetual lease. Similarly, it was the United Front Government which signed an agreement on water sharing. This was part of the Gujral doctrine of unilateral concessions to neighbours. The Centre used even Jyoti Basu to get Bangladesh agree. The Brahmaputra is a river of sorrow. Yet India and Bangladesh failed to find a solution to the recurring floods and loss of lives. They could have the river. But Bangladesh had no will for it. It has been Dhakas case that India is taking more than its share. But a special study funded by the World Bank and produced by the Bangladesh Government in collaboration with a US engineering firm came to the conclusion that Dhaka exaggerated the seriousness and in some cases, the nature of the damages. This is not how a country fosters honest dealings with friends. Sheikh Hasina is keen about the power grid. No one can dispute it. But what contribution is she willing to make it a reality? There is no concrete proposal from Dhaka so far. It is want of political trust that had blocked the use of Nepals huge water resources in the past 50 years. In these fifty years, much could have been done to improve the lot of Nepalese and Indians. But that opportunity was missed. Nepal had no trust in India. Times have changed. The Mahakali project which was launched not long ago, will produce 4000 MW. It can meet 75 per cent of Nepals irrigation and most of its power needs. India is to share both water and power with Nepal. And it will ultimately earn major revenue from this project. The 10800 MW Karnali project is a multipurpose project and can help India irrigate 3.2 million hectares of land. I am sure the Calcutta port problem can be taken care of by these two major Nepal projects. They can also meet the power needs of Bangladesh too. Bangladesh has a power generation capacity of 1700 MW, but actual use is around 2100 MW. India has offered 200 MW from the Farakha power station. But this is not going to meet Bangladeshs requirements. Hence the need for a grid from which it can draw. Of course, Bangladesh has huge gas reserves (10 trillion cu. m.) This can be used to develop chemical and power industries. But here again there is opposition from Bangladesh. One may well ask: what is it that Bangladesh is worried about? In the meantime, India must explore the gas and oil prospects in Myanmar. Already, Thailand has established a strong presence there. Even a pipeline from Vietnam to India cannot be ruled out, now that India have given up the Oman gas pipeline. And it is in this connection that the Asian highway takes importance. Sheikh Hasina says that she is not aware of illegal immigration from Bangladesh into India. L.K. Advani says that there are 12 million Bangladeshis in India. India is not a Gulf state. We will not precipitate matters. But it is time to call up a policy from our politicians. Let us declare an annual quota for Bangladeshis. But they will not be allowed to settle in the North-East. This condition they cannot violate. All these account for why
India has denied PIO cards to Indians in Pakistan and
Bangladesh an unfortunate step. But we are dealing
with a country which is by no means reasonable. |
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