HE
American invasion of Iraq – a repetition of the war launched by the senior George Bush at the end of the last century – is certainly one of the biggest tragedies of our times, transcending in its global fallout over the Vietnam war. Some American policy makers seek a way to retrieve their immense downslide by a strike over Iran’s nuclear facility. Strange indeed are the ways of the present incumbents in Washington. But if the conspiracies hatched by Cheney and company for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities materialise, it will indeed be a tremendous farce.The tragedy of the Iraq war has been many-sided. Iraq – an oasis of secularism and modernity among the Arab lands – has been devastated and splintered, and the United States itself has suffered multiple damage; the full impact being far beyond initial reckoning.
And so, while Iraqi secularism foisted by former dictator Saddam Hussein has given way to the rise of religious revivalism – an impetus both to Shia-Sunni sectarianism as well as the Al Qaeda – the American economy has lost all round. In trade, jobs, industrial viability: a loss of several trillions of dollars. American dreams of capturing a vast oil wealth have vanished into thin air. And the downslide continues, with the bottom line still not visible.
A recession had been predicted in the United States, among others, by the great George Soros. In fact, the recession has already begun rolling out. How severe is the impact of this recession is yet to be evaluated.
To this we must add the immense loss suffered by the world at large and global economic relations. Among others, the petroleum crisis has been intensified and hastened, slowing down worldwide economic growth, emerging economies like India and China too being brought within the economic setback. The earthquake on the bourses of America, Europe, Asia’s far east, and now enveloping India too, is a barometer of the damage.
Has the tragedy of the Iraq war transformed American policy vision at the top echelon? Have the lessons been learnt? Not yet. The policy of American dominance of the globe, particularly West Asia’s oil wealth, from which emerged the Iraq war – call it neo-imperialism of the 21st century – stays.
One does not have to go far to glean this grotesque reality of the global scene. The finding fell in my lap thanks to the frank and straight answers to my queries by a leading American foreign policy exponent, Robert Kagan of the Financial Times. He spells this out without inhibition, in reply to questions posed by this writer.
Q: How is it that invasion of Iraq came just when the lessons of Vietnam were being widely accepted? Is it an underlying streak of global dominance in American policy or 21st century neo-imperialism?
Robert Kagan: Good questions, although there are many “lessons of Vietnam” and not everyone agrees what they are. But as a general matter, I would say that the Iraq intervention came at a time when the “lessons of Vietnam” had been practically expunged from the American memory…
As to your second question, the argument I am advancing in (my book) Dangerous Nation is that there is an “underlying streak of global dominance” in American policy, and always has been. You could call it 21st century neo-imperialism if you like. But I would say that American policy continues to spring from the same ambitions, the same belief in power, and the same conviction of ideological superiority that has always shaped it.
That is calling a spade a spade – no ambiguity or camouflage. However, the conclusion one derives is that we are in a period of many a ‘tragedy’ and ‘farce’, for while American intention of dominance remains, Washington has lost the ability to realise its aims and desires.
Two successive developments have changed the course of history: one is 9/11 Al-Qaeda strike on the World Trade Center in the United States, followed by the American invasion of Iraq. A new factor has begun to mould the world scene – a factor that never existed in the history of interaction among nations – the outburst of religious fundamentalism shaped by the Al Qaeda.
What is the explanation of these happenings? Memories are short-lived, but only a decade or two ago, the Anglo-American combine was playing ball to religious revivalism and merrily encouraging ‘religious fundamentalism’, precursor of the Al Qaeda. Religious revivalism was the lever to keep the Third World backwards.
It was also the stick to beat the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan with, and India in Kashmir. The Taliban was born, thanks to a joint undertaking by Washington and the Pakistan ISI. America provided the dollars and heavy weapons while Pakistan provided army leadership.
Now history bends: it has taken a sharp turn from the pattern of the outgoing decades. Indeed, the pattern of outgoing centuries. But the rulers in Washington find it difficult to adjust – to shed their illegitimate quest for dominance and their ambivalent ways. They continue to live in the world that has been lost, bringing in its wake a new turbulence rocking the American edifice. The acute struggle for change is writ large in the American presidential election scene. The Barack Obama phenomenon promises to bring a new element to the American scene. With what consequence for the world at large is yet an enigma.
All this adds up to an underlying global shift in the power structure. Imperialism, American imperialism in particular is in dire straits. It is breaking up and a new world power structure is emerging. The turbulence under the feet of the United States is becoming unmanageable. Witness the unfolding scene in Pakistan, in West Asia, and the course of the Iraq war.
The American grip over the Islamic world has been lost, if not destroyed, in the oil hub of West Asia, and in Pakistan, for long the kingpin of American operations in Asia, the lost American clout is dragging its one-time ally into an abysmal crisis of existence. To complete this traumatised picture: America’s trans-Atlantic allies in Europe are no longer partners but estranged friends.
In the new power structure, Russian economic revival has created another power centre. Along side, one witnesses an upswing in countries of the East, with China and India leading a new economic upsurge. The rapid acquisition of science and technology, notably the advanced sciences – nuclear, space and IT – by the two countries has given them economic strength which is the key requisite.
With China’s rise in the world power structure and global economic balance, it is India’s oscillating growth that leaves a question mark. An opportunity to remould the world scene is now with us. But there are also vulnerable facets. India’s new found strength was demonstrated by the much-lauded Indo-US nuclear accord.
Contrary to apprehensions voiced by the Left parties and the BJP, the nuclear accord meant a victory for India and a submission by the United States, as the tenuous course of the year-long negotiations on the 123 Agreement clearly showed.
Yet, the inability to clinch the nuclear accord on account of domestic political compulsions displays a structural political weakness that may yet pull this country away from attaining its rightful place in today’s world.
Along with the opportunity at hand for India to play a worthy role in the global mainstream, there are danger signals too. The scene ahead is packed with a critical global oil/energy crunch side by side with food shortages the likes of which have never before existed. The post-Iraq economic crisis heralds a Western financial downslide, itself a new phenomenon.
A struggle for markets is on the agenda. Indian domestic political cracks can pull this country down and away from mustering all its strength to meet the challenges ahead. That danger has to be
forestalled.