P A G E
Friday, August 20, 1999
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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
Friday, August 20, 1999 |
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Battle
of Bellary
MARKETING
AN IMAGE
Implications
of ‘no first use’ policy |
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Russia,
China, Cuba: a study in survival
In
defence of sleeping officials
Disturbance
near Moradabad |
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Battle of Bellary THERE is never a dull moment in Indian politics, especially during election time. Even the filing of nomination papers by Congress President Sonia Gandhi from the Bellary Lok Sabha constituency in Karnataka on Wednesday was full of avoidable drama and suspense. Equally dramatic was the way BJP leader Sushma Swaraj chased her political opponent and announced her candidature from the same constituency. It was, in a way, a thriller of a sort, Indian cinema style, and showed the saffron party's obsession with Mrs Gandhi. Nothing wrong with that. High-profile persons do attract notice wherever they go and whatever they do. The bahu-bahan duel apart, the fielding of Mr Arun Nehru from Rae Bareli by the BJP, the challenge posed by Mr T. N. Seshan to Mr L.K. Advani in the Gandhinagar constituency in Gujarat, Dr Manmohan Singh's contest from the prestigious South Delhi constituency against Mr Vijay Kumar Malhotra are all part of an interesting but complex electoral scene in the country. More than the personalities, several sensitive issues are bound to be thrown up in this battle of the ballot. Mrs Sushma Swaraj has already said that she would regard her contest against Mrs Gandhi as a fight for the restoration of the country's self-respect. Obviously, she is looking at the Bellary battle to focus on the BJP's favourite theme of "videshi" versus "swadeshi". In a way, this may be a narrow way of looking at the electoral contest. The people may reject or accept a candidate for reasons of emotion or otherwise. As it is, the voters in South India tend to be more emotional than those in the North. They may or may not be guided by reason or logic. In the absence of a wave, local factors and what is fed to the electorate by rival camps may prove to be decisive. Mrs Sonia Gandhi, of
course, is not Indira Gandhi. The late Prime Minister had
charisma which could sway the voters, both in the North
and the South. For the Congress President, the Bellary
seat will be a real test in politics. She may still be an
enigma for a section of the electorate. The common voters
in the North generally go by the totality of a
candidate's ability to win friends and influence people.
In the South, certain images click. For Mrs Swaraj too,
this will be a major battle in her political career from
the South. She is a good orator, but in Hindi. She has
the profile of a housewife. But whether she will be able
to evoke the right responses from the housewives in
Bellary is difficult to say at this stage. But the
contest, by and large, will be interesting. Both
honourable ladies have advantages as well as
disadvantages. There are certain built-in handicaps and
constraints for both of them. But for Mrs Swaraj, the
stakes will certainly be high since she has thrown up the
question of "swadeshi" and "videshi"
before the electorate. Any setback to her could become
embarrassing for her party after the elections. But if
she has her way, it will be a major scoring point for the
BJP. The battle is definitely tough, especially for Mrs
Gandhi since she will contest from Amethi as well. A
divided attention at a time when the BJP is shining in
the reflected glory of Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee after the
Kargil triumph will make Mrs Gandhi's job both difficult
and ticklish. Indeed, her personal success or failure
will not only decide the future of the Congress but also
set trends in the polity. To that extent, the Bellary
contest will, in all probability, provide an answer to
several issues as well as non-issues engaging the
attention of certain sections of the people. |
A human tragedy THOUGH Turkey is familiar with earthquake-related problems as it falls in an active seismic zone, Tuesday’s tremors have brought the country face to face with a crisis of great magnitude. The high-intensity earthquake that hit the western part of Turkey has claimed more than 3000 lives besides leaving thousands injured. In all, over one lakh people have been affected. It was the most devastating disaster of its kind in the past over two decades with its epicentre in Izmit, an industrial town. In fact, the entire affected region, now declared “disaster areas”, has been the hub of economic activity in Turkey. The loss in material terms, which will obviously take time to be assessed, is going to be quite destabilising. It is, however, the humanitarian aspect that has to be dealt with on a war-footing. The country is in a position to provide shelter and food to the people in distress on its own, but the gigantic proportion of the disaster may render the arrangements inadequate. Thus Turkey deserves any kind of assistance from the world community at this hour of agony. More than anything else, it is in great need of technical expertise in search and rescue operations plus a huge supply of medicines. India must come forward with all the humanitarian aid it can provide, ignoring the human rights records of the Turkish regime. It is good that the world has responded on the expected lines to the appeal of the Turkish government to come to its rescue. If the UN has promised “all forms of assistance within its means in the relief and rehabilitation efforts”, rescue and relief teams have reached the earthquake-devastated towns to save the lives of those injured. Though Turkey has not issued an SOS for financial assistance, it cannot properly cope with the horrifying situation without international monetary assistance. Thus the German gesture of making available $5,60,000 as emergency funds deserves appreciation. The International Red Cross, following a request from the Turkish Red Crescent, has launched a drive to collect around $7 million initially to help the troubled nation. Turkey is one of those
unfortunate countries which are in the world’s
earthquake-prone zones. It gets jolted by seismic
activity of varying intensity after short or long
intervals. Only last year it lost nearly 300 lives as a
result of earthquakes in June and July. But the magnitude
of Tuesday’s tremors could be compared only with
those recorded in September, 1975, when over 2,300 people
were killed. Turkey had gone through the most harrowing
experience of the century in December, 1939, when it was
visited by an earthquake measured 8 at the Richter scale,
leading to the death of more than 30,000 people. There
are a number of countries like Turkey which face death
and destruction at big and small scales caused by the
vibrations following the fracturing and movement of
crustal rocks transmitted through the earth. Yet the
world’s scientific community has so far failed to
devise a system to predict this natural phenomenon. The
scientists engaged in the task have their own
explanations to offer for the limited success, but the
unpredictability of earthquakes proves that the strange
ways of nature are even today beyond human comprehension. |
MARKETING AN IMAGE
MR Atal Behari Vajpayee is riding high on the success in Kargil. This was reflected at the colourful show organised in New Delhi to release the election manifesto of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the presence of 14 “netas” belonging to different political groups. Mr Vajpayee was the star attraction, and understandably so. The Prime Minister is no longer seen as a BJP leader. From the lofty heights of Kargil he has emerged as the tallest leader with whom everyone wishes to identify. Even the socialists,who till recently used to decry the BJP and its leaders as a Hindutva brigade, have taken shelter under the Vajpayee poll umbrella. What a change! Politics in India is made of emotional stuff. The rest is a matter of manipulation. Nothing succeeds like success in political image-building. What to talk of the NDA, the same Prime Minister, ironically enough, could not save his party from utter humiliation in the Assembly election in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh at the hands of the humble onion! Tears rolled down the cheek of many a BJP stalwart, including the high-profile Ms Sushma Swaraj. She blamed her misfortune on the infighting and intrigues which have become part of the country’s political culture. Political images are not made in heaven. They are made and unmade on the basis of the people’s response to the leader and the seriousness and determination with which he goes about the tasks ahead. The Indian people are basically an emotional lot. They swing from one extreme to another with the changing time and needs. Pakistan’s Kargil misadventure stirred the nation. Patriotism, for once, has becoming all-embracing. And Mr Vajpayee has come to symbolise the new spirit of Indian nationalism. Mr Vajpayee is not a novice in politics. A veteran of several electoral battles, he impresses the people in the Hindi heartland with his oratorical gift and the idiom in which he speaks. The post-Kargil Vajpayee, however, looks different. In his second innings as Prime Minister, he has been cultivating a sober public image for himself—an image which is liberal, secular and broad based. Mr Vajpayee has nurtured this image over a long period, beyond the Ayodhya syndrome. At one stage, it was Home Minister L.K. Advani who had an edge over him. That phase of BJP politics seems to be over. Mr Vajpayee’s stamp is now visible in whatever the BJP does or projects. In fact, Mr Advani himself is now playing a second fiddle to the Prime Minister and is singing his praise. Who says swadeshi politics is dull and static? True, Indian politics is in a state of flux. Perhaps, this is part of the manthan being witnessed for the past few decades. What will be the end result of the whole process is difficult to say. Everytime there is a churning process, hopes are aroused but sooner than later belied. Will things be different this time? It is difficult to predict in India’s complex polity. There are, certain positive points. Certain indicators are, however, disquieting. Interestingly, several political stalwarts dominating the national scene these days never lost an opportunity in the past to decry the personality cult promoted during Indira Gandhi’s days. They never hesitated to debunk the dynastic rule and the promotion of sons, daughters, daughters-in-law, etc. But what do we see now? Aren’t the same leaders promoting their “in-laws” and “outlaws”? To say this is not to criticise these persons but to underline the inbuilt hypocrisy which has become part of India’s political culture. Sycophancy is the order of the day, both within the BJP and the NDA. Just look at the NDA manifesto released by the Prime Minister in the presence of 14 “netas” sitting side by side at one long table. Every page of the NDA manifesto carries the picture of Mr Vajpayee in colour! Is this not an overkill? Will this not be seen as part of the efforts to build a personality cult around Mr Vajpayee? The Prime Minister’s remark that he would ask the publication section about it showed his casual response to this sensitive matter. Left to himself, he would not have approved of this. But then the damage has been done. I am pointing this out because I believe that any desperate attempt to build Mr Vajpayee’s personality cult would be counter-productive in the long run. We must not forget that the once mighty Indira Gandhi was dumped because of the personality cult projected during the Emergency days. We do not seem to learn from history. Nor do we learn from the mistakes of other leaders. It needs to be appreciated that history is not “a pack of tricks we play upon the dead”, as Voltaire once said. The right input from history can make a difference in the quality of the decision-making process in complex situation we find ourselves in. Sycophancy is a double-edged weapon. Those who indulge in it are doing a big disservice to the Prime Minister. Persons of substance do not need image builders. They rise in public esteem on the basis of their natural strength and performance. Mr Vajpayee actually belongs to that glorious phase of Indian politics in which persons like Jawaharlal Nehru, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, Gobind Ballabh Pant and Rafi Ahmed Kidwai dominated public life. But his earlier disadvantage was that he belonged to a party whose acceptability then was both narrow and limited. That phase of politics is now over. Everything is in a melting pot. Of course, one thing which has made a difference to Indian politics is the arrival of image-makers. This trend started during Rajiv Gandhi’s time. His whiz-kids and PR men planned a systematic projection of him among the masses as “Mr Clean”. And that became the magic word in Indian politics in 1984 and 1985. In fact, it caught the imagination of even Indian intellectuals. Rajiv then gave the impression that he wanted to remove the stranglehold of cliques and lobbies over the party and government. The advertisement campaign then organised by Rediffusion of Arun Nanda, a friend of Rajiv Gandhi, virtually “sold” Rajiv as a new “political product” under the brand name of the Congress-1. Rediffusion’s campaign was seen as a watershed in political image-building with the help of advertising. Not that political advertising was organised then for the first time. The Swatantra Party actually set the process in 1967 when it showed “political stills” in cinema halls. Even Indira Gandhi used the services of Graphics Ads to spread her message during the 1980 election. For Rajiv, however, political advertising was just one component of image-makers. They exploited the electronic media too to project Rajiv. Looking back, it was interesting to see Rajiv Gandhi’s transformation from a pilot to a politician. He took to khadi kurta and pyjamas in place of T-shirt and jeans. This new look was meant to help him click with the masses. For that matter, even Indira Gandhi used to take meticulous care about her public appearance. She had a dress for every occasion and every situation. If she addressed a rural gathering, she would cover her head and shoulders. She knew her people and their heart-beats. In fact, the real success of any leader depends on how close he or she is to the people. It is, however, a pity that we do not have very many grassroots leaders in the country. Most of our political leaders live in ivory towers basking in the glory of the office they occupy at the taxpayer’s expense. Mr Vajpayee has definitely a solid image among the people. And the Kargil success has added extra lustre to it. But herein lies the danger. He needs to save himself from cheap gimmicks of sycophants and quick-fix image-makers! True, the Indian masses can be easily taken in by any charm spell or success. But a lasting image can only be built on time-bound development plans and a committed plan of action. Mr Vajpayee has got a
historic opportunity to change the face of India, beyond
the election-time gimmicks and promises. This nation
badly needs bridges of communication and understanding at
all levels. We cannot run India as a closed shop for
limited partisan gains. A faith in the voice of reason. A
faith in a better tomorrow, away from the games of
competitive negativism. A degree of honesty, dedication
and simplicity of the system and down-to-earth approach
could help in improving the quality of performance as
well as of governance. It is time we looked beyond the
Kargil success and addressed ourselves to the basic
problems facing the people and the nation as a whole. |
Implications of ‘no first
use’ policy RECENTLY, the BBC “Hard Talk” programme ran four interviews, two each with political personalities from Pakistan and India. The interviewer acted rather forcefully in asking loaded questions which, at times, even impinged on the veracity of what those being interviewed said. The interviews were interesting and revealing about not only the respective government’s policies but also the nuances of how these were being sold to the international audiences in spite of reservations. The issue here is one of the nuclear status of both countries and how they visualise using this potent and awesome weapon. The political personalities of the two countries (the Information Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan and from the Indian side the External Affairs Minister and the Defence Minister) were asked for the rationale for their going nuclear. The answer of both was that it was meant to be a deterrent. Pakistan made it clear that this weapon was meant to overcome the conventional superiority of India. India, on the other hand, stated that the weapon was not country-specific but merely to counter any threat, and this was clarified further that India had already adopted the policy of “No First Use.” The Pakistani personalities were not ready to give this assurance, in spite of repeated questioning, and reserved the right of first use if, in the event of war with India, the need arose for its use. The implications of these statements regarding the use of nuclear weapons need some examination. The first aspect is the type of target that Pakistan, with its stated policy of first use, is likely to adopt. The broad categories are two. First the purely military targets for which comparatively smaller nuclear bombs would be used. The aim of these would be to influence a particular portion of the battlefield with lesser impact on civilian areas. Such strikes are not likely to have any major and permanent effect on the war unless a number of these are used over a wider area. The war capacity of India would certainly be affected but the echelons of command and control, political and military, would be largely immune. The vast resources of India could eventually prevail, after India has retaliated with its own nuclear strikes. The other targets that could be adopted by Pakistan are big cities. A strike on Delhi for instance, would tend to affect the government and military command set-ups and also create maximum panic among the public. Pakistan could then hope that India would be forced to sue for a cessation of hostilities on the terms dictated by it. Such a strike would also adversely affect the capability of India to bring forward its reserves in time. The targeting of a big city could well be in conjunction with the use of smaller battlefield nuclear bombs. On balance, it is most probable that Pakistan, depending upon its nuclear weapons resources, will use both targets, civilian and military, to gain the maximum advantage in the shortest period of time. The time-span for reaction by other world powers also needs to be borne in mind. The mere fact that India has adopted the policy of “No First Use,” gives Pakistan an extra impetus to use this weapon first as the threat from India has been negated. India’s nuclear strike capability, therefore, is no real threat to Pakistan unless the stated policy of India is not believed. It is imprudent for India to have adopted this policy and announced it openly. The intention of impressing the foreign powers of its good, altruistic and noble aims is misplaced in the context of its own security. Why must the option of the threat be given up? Surely, the security of the country must have priority over other things, and should not be undermined by any effort to try and convince other powers of our intentions. The other implications also need to be examined. With the first strike option with Pakistan, has India made arrangements to be able to survive such a strike? This implies the need for secure alternative accommodation for the government and military Hqs with full communication facilities. Has this aspect been taken into consideration? There is no indication of this so far, realising that such projects cannot be kept hidden for long. The procedures for marrying the nuclear weapons, delivery systems and the command and control of all this is the next aspect. From the available indications, the military is not yet within this structure though, presumably, at some stage it would have to be brought in. At what stage would this happen? The Kargil war could have turned into an all-out conflict. Were all these precautionary measures initiated? At what stage would they be activated? These and many more questions arise. While formulating the government policy of “No First Use”, was the military consulted and did it give this advice? If so has any action been taken? The involvement of the military (all three Service Chiefs) in such policy formulations is essential. The government, obviously, should not give out all its policies on security matters, but the public has to be assured that all needed actions are being taken and that the policies adopted are for long-term best interests of the country. The announcement of the “No First Use” policy is certainly not in this category. The only way the world powers can ensure that India and Pakistan do not resort to nuclear warfare is for the only super power — America — to take a stand. If the USA were to announce that in case India or Pakistan uses its nuclear weapons first, preselected targets in the culprit country would immediately, and without further notice, be engaged by nuclear weapons of America. This will bring a sense of sanity in the dealings, and even war, between the two countries. (The author is a
retired Brigadier). |
In
defence of sleeping officials SLEEPING officials is not an uncommon sight in government offices, especially during summers, when air-conditioned rooms and a fuller lunch create the right ambience for “nature’s soft nurse” to come and lull them to enjoy what was “magic” to Keats, “balmy” to young, “dewy-feathered” to Milton and “gentle” to Coleridge. The conduct rules prohibit a government servant from accepting a costly gift from anyone but sleep despite being “the poor man’s wealth” is always welcome. That government would be called ruthless which would make a rule to snatch this benefit from the officials who are heavily burdened with the onerous task of running the country. Their untiring efforts have brought for us the 132nd position in human development index out of 174 countries according to the latest UNDP report. And that too in a span of 50 and odd years. What are 50 years in the life of a country if our glorious past and development during the British period are simple words of history? Forget China and the work culture there. They have a different form of government. We are a democracy — and that too an “economy size” democracy with ample freedom to sleep, steal, sneak, scam, spit and another such word rhyming with the last one. I know you will ask, “sleep, yes. But why sleep during office hours?” Perhaps you have forgotten the saying — “After dinner walk a mile, after lunch sleep a while”. When lunch can get extended beyond the official half an hour into what are supposed to be the working hours, why can’t “silken repose” be? So stay cool as a good citizen of a tolerant state. I was a government
official myself till a couple of years ago. I confess
that, like stolen apples, forty winks during the office
hours were really sweet. Sleeping is better than raising
well thought of objections in our awakened state, like
why provide snow-boots to jawans who have to keep vigil
in those “Kargil” heights and then make the
whole world go against us. It is beyond their
comprehension that our intention was simply to help
jawans to get themselves acclimatised and develop
qualities of fighting barefoot even. Our rishi-muni sat
in the state of nakedness there and could find God, the
ultimate. But the media, the society cares not for our
thinking process and the result is we are targeted. So,
sleep, friends and filers. Bother not about those who
say, “Arise, awake and sleep not till the goal is
achieved” or “I have miles to go before I
sleep.” Go on enjoying “the chief nourisher in
life’s feast” between ten and five on all
working days. |
Russia, China, Cuba: a study in
survival THE command economy of Russia is better than its present mafia economy. You may ask: how? Because a life without fear of criminals is better than living in constant dread of them; a life with a safety net is better than facing a life of daily uncertainties and a life with an assured job is better than the prospect of long unemployment and the humiliation and degradation that go with it. All these may be after-thoughts. But they are true. The Russian people had a life without fear (the midnight knock was more a myth); they had safety nets and assured jobs. They had also health care, free education, cheap houses and transport and many things more. In fact, in spite of its serious blemishes, it was a system that cared for their life from cradle to grave. And yet it collapsed. What went wrong? The human factor. The men who led them failed them. But, then, this has always been the human experience. But we refuse to learn from it. Gorbachev knew all that was wrong with the Communist system, but he knew almost nothing on how to correct them. Yeltsin? He knew even less. He was more eager to ban the Communist Party, the only organised force, apart from the KGB, which could have opposed the mafia and anarchy. Privatisation was held out as a panacea by the IMF. But Russian reformers did not know how to privatise. They did not even know how to value their assets. The IMF and World Bank urged them speed. They had only one objective: to prevent a reversal, a return to the “bad old days.” In the meantime, the wealth of the country was being plundered. Gangsters and mafiamen, bureaucrats and partymen, managers and musclemen — all were building their empires. There was pervasive criminalisation of the economy. But this was not inevitable. It could have been avoided. Karl Marx was a great thinker. But he knew almost nothing of human nature (except that the capitalists are ogres). Lenin was a great organiser. But he knew nothing on how to keep the evils in men under check. It is not that Russia did not have intelligent people. It had. And yet such elementary facts did not occur to them that if a people without private property rights were allowed to possess property, there would be a mad stampede. This is what happened. In the scramble to acquire property, people took to criminal methods. Large segments of the economy passed into the hands of the mafia. It was a jump from the frying pan to fire. This could have been anticipated and prevented. The Russian economy today is not really a market economy. It is a mafia economy — perhaps the first of its kind in the world. It will be very difficult to dismantle it. About 40 per cent of the Russian people, who had never known poverty, live today in conditions of destitution. And large numbers of women, who had not known flesh trade, have been compelled to take to prostitution. Who is responsible for this great tragedy? The American nation. What was it, then, that ultimately crushed the Soviet system? Two factors: the fact that Russia allowed the old system to be destroyed before the new one was even thought of, not to speak of being in place, and because the Russian state lost its enforcing authority. Today, the capitalist world, more so America, is putting pressure on China to dismantle its socialist system, especially the Communist Party. I hope the Chinese are not foolish to do so, for they will be plunged into a worse plight than what the Russians have been going through. What is standing between the anarchy of the mafia and the Chinese people are the Communist Party and the Chinese army. Take them off, and China will return to the days of warlordism. Perhaps this is the secret wish of the West. China is a country of a thousand million people. No market economy can ever cope with their problems. Most of them have no property of their own. If the floodgates are now thrown open to private property, the system will collapse and the mafia will take over the country. This is not to say that private property should not be restored. It should be done with utmost caution. China follows the gradual path. Even after 20 years of reform, 80 per cent of the old economic structure remains. And the political structure is not even touched. Its authority to enforce orders remains inviolate. And yet China has had an annual growth rate of over 10 per cent and a foreign trade growth of 10-15 per cent. Today China threatens to become the number one economic power of the world. Cuba’s case was rather unique. It was facing a more difficult situation than any other socialist country. With the debacle of the Soviet Union, the subsidy which it got from Moscow ceased. And 87 per cent of its trade which was with the socialist world, was completely disrupted. And it stopped getting aid from other socialist countries, too. Above all, Cuba was facing the US embargo. Everybody thought that it would collapse. Its production fell by 35 per cent by 1993. The peso, fixed at one peso a dollar, fell to 130 peso a dollar by 1994. (As against this, the rouble fell to 16,000 roubles a dollar by October, 1998, while it was 1.7 dollars a rouble in 1990). This was the worst period for Cuba, when riots broke out for the first time. But Cuba adhered to one goal: to preserve the regime intact. Cuba never allowed the old socialist system to disintegrate. As one commentator put it, abandoning socialism was like jumping off a cliff. It only led to a precipitous fall. Instead, Cuba went for a gradual process. It started with small innovations. The country was opened up for tourism (only in enclaves) to improve the forex position. Dollar shops were opened to mop up dollar holdings of the people. The holdings were legalised. Together, tourism and dollar shops gave 37 per cent of the forex earning of the country by 1997. About 80 per cent of the Cuban state enterprises were running in loss. In Russia, they sold loss-making units to the Russians. But most of them went bankrupt. The Cubans found foreign partners for such enterprises and were able to turn them around to profitable units. Of course, they were allowed to fix prices. As for agriculture, almost all state farms were converted into cooperatives and they were given powers and facilities. But encouraging self-employment of youth was a major innovation which helped the regime overcome revolts. By 1996 about 15 per cent of the workforce was self-employed. For the first time, Cuba introduced a tax system, although it was not popular. And it gave up the vast system of subsidies. As a result, it was able to reduce the budget deficit from 30.5 per cent of GDP to 2 per cent of the GDP by 1997. Today the peso is settled at 19 a dollar, fiscal deficit has been reduced to 2 per cent and average growth rate has gone up to 3-4 per cent. This is nothing but a
remarkable achievement for a country which continues to
be under American threat and embargo! |
Disturbance
near Moradabad THE District Magistrate, Moradabad, has communicated the following to the Press:- “At Sambhal on the
night of the 11th August at about 11 p.m. a large body of
trouble makers, are reported to have attacked with sticks
others assembled in the Surajkund Temple, inflicting on
them injuries in consequence of which 17 have been
admitted to the hospital. One man was recovered from a
well in the temple compound. Two men were in a somewhat
precarious condition, but are now reported to be doing
better. The Sub-divisional Officer and Tehsildar, along
with the local police officers and a guard, arrived on
the scene and dispersed the rioters. As they dispersed,
however, the rioters are reported to have desecrated a
religious place which lay in their way. Investigation is
proceeding. |
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