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assembly elections The crucial Assembly elections scheduled for five states in November-December have the potential to alter the fortunes of both the Congress and BJP. A precursor to the 2014 General Election, these could tell which way the wind is blowing. By KV Prasad
The elections are considered to be a bellwether that will allow parties to gauge the public mood. Although in terms of the Lok Sabha these states account for 70 seats, the significance is that except for the 40 seats in Mizoram, the rest of the states will see a battle primarily between the Congress and BJP. Chhattisgarh, formed by the BJP during Prime Minister Vajpayee’s tenure, has remained loyal to the party since 2003, after it rejected the Congress government headed by Ajit Jogi. Chief Minister Raman Singh, who served as union minister in the NDA government, is an able administrator. The Naxal attack earlier this year (in which the state top Congress leadership was wiped out) also altered the political calculation in favour of the BJP. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP government of Shivraj Singh Chouhan is raring to equal the record of the party’s best-known Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, in scoring a hat trick of wins. Chouhan is known as a ‘commoner’ Chief Minister who has endeared himself to the people. Both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which account for 40 Lok Sabha seats (MP-29, Chhattisgarh-11) hold the key for the BJP. In Delhi, the Congress under Sheila Dikshit has had an unexceptionable run, having come to power in 1998 by ousting the BJP. The Congress hopes to emerge victorious for an unprecedented fourth term in the face of challenge from the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party. After wresting power from the BJP in 2008, the Ashok Gehlot government of the Congress in Rajasthan faces a strong challenge from the BJP, with former CM Vasundhara Raje mounting a campaign in the state which is central to the BJP calculation ahead of the 2014 election. Mizoram offers a different perspective as the political opponents are the Congress and Mizo National Front. Despite being in the opposition at the Centre in 2003, the Congress was on the upswing till the reversals in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan took the wind away from its sails. The victory in Delhi was a saving grace and it required political dexterity of Congress president Sonia Gandhi to stitch a coalition to bring the UPA to power. Five years later, the Congress managed to wrest Rajasthan and retain Delhi and held on to power at the Centre with added strength. Will 2013 be different? December 8, when the results will be out, could give a sneak preview of what to expect.
Chhattisgarh
Once
part of Madhya Pradesh, this mineral-rich state has large swathes of land — at least 12 of the 27 districts —under the shadow of the Maoists gun. Five years ago, the Dr Raman Singh government retained its control over the Assembly on the slogan of getting rid of the three ‘Bs’ — bhaay, bhookh and bhrashtrachar. Of the three, the most acknowledged contribution is the effort to tackle hunger, with a majority of the people entitled to benefits under the PDS that provides 35 kg foodgrains per family for Re 1 per kg under Antyodaya and Rs 2 per kg for the rest. Raman Singh earned the sobriquet of “Potli wale baba” for making available foodgrains at a low cost. Yet, there is little the government has done to remove fear. The attack earlier this year against a Congress convoy in Bastar district is a grim reminder of the challenge ahead. With Karma gone, the Congress rank and file were dejected till the party began attempts to infuse life into the campaign. A tussle is on with former CM and Congress MP Ajit Jogi eager to have a say in state affairs while Union Minister Charan Das Mahant, lone Congress MP from the state, is trying to establish his authority. Chhattisgarh does not face energy problems. The issue of increase in percentage of quota for Scheduled Castes to 16 per cent is coming to the fore in the state that has more tribal people, as is the demand for higher minimum support price (MSP) for foodgrain-produce, besides the problem of regularising the services of teachers recruited for an education mission launched by the government.
Issues at work
Schedule
Date of polling (Phase 1): Nov 11, 2013 MIZORAM
The
state is called an island of peace in the disturbed Northeast. Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla had led the party to a win in the 2008 polls and snatched power from the Mizo National Front
(MNF). The Congress hopes to retain power on the strength of its New Land Use Policy that aims at generating self-employment. The Mizo National Front led by former CM Zoramthanga is going to fight on issues of poor development, corruption and unemployment. It is exploring an alliance with the Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC) while Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP), will go it alone.
Issues at work
Schedule Date of polling: December 4, 2013 delhi
Elections
to the Delhi Assembly are barely two decades old. After the formation of the National Capital Territory of Delhi with its own Assembly in the 1990s, the BJP led by Madan Lal Khurana defeated the genial Jag Parvesh Chandra of the Congress. That was the only time the BJP could hold power in Delhi, which does not have jurisdiction over land and law and order, both being under the Centre. Yet, the tussle to control the Assembly in the Capital is an issue of prestige. The Congress, which is in power since 1998, and the BJP continue to dominate politics, but this time the ‘untested’ Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, hopes to make a splash. The BSP also marks its presence in some constituencies, with Vijay Goel as the frontrunner. Riding on the strong anti-corruption platform and buoyed by the wave of anger witnessed at Jantar Mantar in April 2010, the AAP is out to score a political point. Though largely a middle-class urban-centric population, Delhi has segments of rural areas that continue to be dictated by strong leaders representing various communities. The large ‘Purabiya’ (voters from Bihar and eastern UP) hold a distinct sway. Corruption continues to be an issue in Delhi, as it is in other parts of the country, but Congress’ Sheila Dikshit has delivered an unparalleled three-in-a-row victory for the Congress and is hoping to repeat the feat this December. The BJP, still unclear about its chief ministerial candidate, is seeking to overcome the handicap by offering sops in the form of a sharp 30 per cent cut in power tariff. A vast majority of voters in Delhi are Central Government employees and reside in colonies that voted for the Congress on previous occasions. This time there is an undercurrent against spiralling prices of essential commodities.
Issues at work
Schedule Date of polling: December 4, 2013
Rajasthan
In
the run-up to the 2003 elections to the Assembly, Rajasthan faced a severe drought when Ashok Gehlot was the CM. Congress president Sonia Gandhi asked the Congress to assist the state in its hour of need. The effort put in by the party could not win over the people of Rajasthan and the Congress was voted out. But in 2008, the party under Gehlot-CP Joshi leadership wrested power from the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government. This year the BJP is seeking do what the Congress did five years ago, but it woke a little late to challenge the government that has survived a series of issues — Bhanwari Devi scandal, firing at Gopalgarh Mosque and corruption. She made a comeback this year after launching a yatra to highlight the government’s misdeeds. The BJP released a white paper and CD containing reports of the alleged misdeeds of the government.
Issues at work
Schedule Date of polling: December 1, 2013
Madhya Pradesh
Among the major states in the Hindi heartland, the state is among the strongholds of the
BJP. In 1998, when the price of onions became the dominant issue during the Assembly elections, the BJP lost the state along with Delhi and Rajasthan. Yet, five years later under the leadership of Uma Bharti, the BJP stormed to power, forcing the Congress leader and then Chief Minister Digvijay Singh to go on a self-imposed 10-year exile. The Congress has not been able to recover lost ground. BJP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has changed it all. The Congress had lost on the bijli, sadak, pani issue. Unlike his more flamboyant Gujarat counterpart Narendra Modi, Chouhan has endeared himself to a cross-section of society, even minorities. According to some studies, if in the 2008 elections the Muslims voted for him, the average turnout of the community was at least 15 percentage points lower than the national turnout in the 2009 Lok Sabha, indicating there was greater comfort with the government in Bhopal. Though he is strong, the party faces a dilemma as some of its legislators have been indulging in corrupt activities. These influential law-makers have the resources, and denial of ticket could prompt them to join other parties. If the party retains them, it would risk its prospects. As for the Congress, after a delayed start it projected Union Power Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia as the chief campaigner. His family enjoys a formidable presence in certain pockets in the Gwalior-Chambal region; adding to it is the strength provided by senior leaders Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh. But the Congress faces a tough battle to regain power after a third straight loss. The BSP and Samajwadi Party also hold some influence, especially in constituencies adjoining Uttar Pradesh.
Issues at work
Schedule Date of polling: November 25, 2013 |
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The
While the Congress holds the reins of power in Delhi, Rajasthan and
Mizoram, the BJP runs the governments in Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh. 
The attack killed 29 persons, including founder of Salwa Judum Mahendra Karma and the then state Congress chief Nand Kumar Patel. Karma, a firebrand tribal leader, was working on a plan to counter Naxalites in the hotbed district where the BJP holds 11 of the 12 Assembly seats. 
The Mizoram Kohhran Hruaitute Committee (MKHC) has asked the Election Commission to change the date of polling and counting as the Presbyterian Church Synod and United Pentecostal Church have statewide conferences on December 4. The counting falls on a Sunday, the holy day for Christians. The Mizo Zirlai Pawl says the Centre and state must work to mobilise resources to mitigate unemployment. “Lack of job opportunities and professional education have driven thousands of Mizos to big cities,” says a leader of the Young Mizo Association. — Bijay Sankar Bora 
She is seen as a matronly figure in Delhi and has a big following among the middle-class. She is in the forefront of the campaign on the basis of solid work done by her government, be it in the form of delivery of services or development in the quest to make Delhi a world-class city. 
Gehlot countered the BJP by unleashing measures for the benefit of people, including free diagnostic tests, pensions and housing. The recent Food Security Scheme could be the game changer. The polls seem to be a clash of personalities. Gehlot is liked by the Delhi leadership. But there is resentment against Vasundhara in the party’s middle-rung leaders. 
It is this factor that has made Chouhan wary of projecting Modi as the prime ministerial candidate as it could make a difference this time around. But Chouhan, affectionately called “mama” or “bhaiya”, has the image of the man next door. He mingles with the masses and has also initiated a series of welfare measures that dole out grants under ‘kanyadaan’ scheme and holds panchayat durbars at his residence along with officials to resolve issues of the people.
