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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
Friday, December 3, 1999 |
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Unnecessary
wheat import
PLAYING
WITH THE BACKWARD CARD
Is
Indonesia unravelling? |
Why
Japan resiled from CTBT insistence
Grandmothers
chores
November 3, 1924 |
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Unnecessary wheat import THE government has done well to impose a hefty duty on wheat import. But it has to answer two questions. First, why didnt it stop this in May itself? Second, why did it allow roller flour mills to buy cheap and sell at a fancy price and rake in super profits. The landed cost of a tonne of Australian wheat was $ 120 or approximately Rs 5400. The price from the FCI godowns in the south zone then was Rs 7470, now reduced to Rs 7050. In other words, the millers enjoyed a margin of more than Rs 2000 a tonne or Rs 200 a quintal. The totally unnecessary import was canvassed and continued by misleading the political bosses that the WTO rules are specifically against a ban on import of food items or imposing duty. The WTO allows duty of up to 100 per cent and both European Union and Japan routinely levy hefty import duty to keep their farmers happy. India could have actually blocked Australian wheat by invoking the safety of plant species provisions. One lot of wheat shipment contained the seed of a wild weed which, if allowed to germinate and grow, could have become a congress grass-like menace. That is why its sale outside the southern zone, a rice producing area, was banned. Import liberalisation is now being exploited for increasing profits. As it happened earlier this year in the case of sugar and as it is happening with edible oil, essential items are bought at a lower price but sold in the market with a sizeable mark-up. This is so even in commodities in abundant supply. Until now the export route was used to meet shortages and curb undue price rise. The whole policy cries out for an urgent review. The sudden decision to
impose duty and the elaborate detail about the mounting
stock and the consequent financial burden can well be the
start of an anti-kisan campaign. One newspaper has
clearly indicated the thinking in a section of the
government. With the present level of buffer grains, it
is contended that in the next wheat season there need be
no procurement. The emphasis on lack of storage
facilities is a dead giveaway. It is the entrenched
anti-farm lobby that seems to be working overtime. It is
pressing the political leadership to first deny any
increase in the minimum support price (MSP) in the coming
season, then stop government buying of the marketed
surplus and finally hand over the foodgrains trade to the
private sector. For one thing, the MSP is not
market-driven but fixed by the Commission for
Agricultural Costs and Prices on the basis of input
costs. Diesel is an input and it now costs nearly 30 per
cent more than a few months back. And the price is likely
to go up further. Two, procurement is not about the FCI
building a buffer stock but it is to offer an assured
market for the entire surplus and at a minimum price.
This was the policy package, together with research and
extension services, that underpinned the green
revolution. Any attack on the twin props of minimum price
and ready market will damage food security this nation
has achieved. The problem of excess stock is the reverse
side of the abysmal poverty in the country a
foodgrain production of about 175 million tonnes is not
enough to nourish a billion people. The government should
devise a way to distribute the grains to the really needy
in far-off villages and city slums. The solution does not
lie in winding up the FCI and the public distribution
system. |
Dent in Mahathir's popularity DESPITE the fact that the National Front led by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has won a two-thirds majority in the country's parliament in Monday's general election, there is noticeable erosion in his popularity. A close study of the poll results shows that the political scene in Malaysia is undergoing a significant change. Malaysia's 11 of the 13 provinces had elections for their state-level legislatures too. Mr Mahathir's front suffered a crushing defeat in two provinces Terengganu and Kelantan at the hands of the Parti Islam Semalaysia (PAS). These are Malay-dominated areas, the community which has been solidly behind Mr Mahathir during the 18 years of his rule. This is a clear hint that the Mala community to which the Prime Minister belongs is no longer prepared to go along with Mr Mahathir in his efforts to continue his rule, specially after the developments that led to the sacking and imprisonment of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwer Ibrahim. PAS, a radical Islamic formation, is part of a four-party opposition group the Alternative National Front. Besides PAS, the group comprises the National Justice Party or Keadilan led by Mrs Azizah Ibrahim (wife of the jailed leader), the Democratic Action Party of the ethnic Chinese and the Malaysian People's Party floated by certain left-leaning leaders. The Opposition's
projection of Mr Ibrahim as its leader helped it win 44
seats out of the total 193 in the federal legislature,
which could have been unthinkable before September, 1998,
when the former Deputy Prime Minister was sacked for
demonstrating the guts to differ with the political
strongman of Malaysia. Mrs Azizah Ibrahim too has secured
a parliamentary seat for herself, with her party's tally
being five and her nominees getting the second position
in a number of constituencies. Of the opposition
partners, the major gainer is PAS with 27 parliamentary
seats, besides the two state legislatures coming to its
share. The emergence of PAS so prominently on the
political horizon has unnerved different sections of
society because of its fundamentalist background. But the
truth that it enjoys the company of a leftist
organisation plus the support of the Mrs Ibrahim's party
and that of the ethnic Chinese indicates that those
opposed to the autocratic rule of Mr Mahathir are ready
to make all kinds of compromises to weaken the position
of the 73-year-old ailing ruler. Mr Mahathir has been
accused of promoting corruption and crony capitalism
besides adopting a dictatorial style of functioning.
After this week's electoral shock he may be conscious
about the first two charges, but he may become more tough
in handling his opponents. Whatever he does, he will have
to learn to live with an opposition which is going to
acquire greater strength in the days to come. |
PLAYING WITH THE BACKWARD CARD
POLITICS for me is not a 100-metre dash. It is a marathon race. To win a marathon, it is necessary that you are sure-footed, remain cool and maintain a steady progress, Mr V.P. Singh once told me at Sahyadri (state guest house) in Mumbai (then Bombay) after formally severing ties with Rajiv Gandhi. A shrewd politician, VP thereafter set in motion his brand of crude caste politics, the effect of which is being felt in the country even now. He first raised the Bofors gun purchase issue against the late Prime Minister and then successfully threw up corruption as the most important public issue. His aggressive mood then was typified by his declaration directed at his critics: If VP Singh is a devil, hang him. But do not hang the nation. Brave words indeed! Who hanged whom, when, where and for what purposes is part of modern Indias political tale. Mercifully, the nation has survived the onslaughts by petty politicians. While we are still debating the Rs 1,427 crore Bofors gun deal signed on March 24, 1986, it was VPs politics of backwardness that created a socio-economic stir. The Mandal card was part of the former Prime Ministers political marathon. He rode to power in December, 1989, on an anti-Rajiv Gandhi wave. His crusading campaign against the corruption raj made him an instant hero, especially in the Hindi heartland. After the electoral triumph in the eighth general election, he saw for himself an all-time political fortune in the reservation issue. The calculation of the Raja of Manda was that the Harijan-backward-dalit-Muslim vote bank could give him a clear majority in the cow belt and ensure his supremacy in office. A number of mini-V.P. Singhs in UP and Bihar are playing the same game without understanding its serious implications. The nation today is increasingly in the grip of the new class of unprincipled politicians. Bihars RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav has already threatened to rake up the Mandal issue. In UP, politics is once again in a melting pot, especially after the suspension of Mr Kalyan Singh by the BJP. Will Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mr Kalyan Singh come together? How about Ms Mayawati and her mentor, Mr Kanshi Ram? Will the backward class and the Muslims become decisive in UPs caste-ridden electoral politics? Where does the Ram mandir issue stand in this opportunistic setting. Will Mr Kalyan Singh raise the slogan of Ram and roti? Should the latest development be taken as a beginning of the BJPs decline in the Hindi heartland? Several such issues figure in political circles in Delhi and Lucknow. Mr Kalyan Singh was once the BJPs trump card. He helped it to broaden its electoral base which, in turn, brought the party on to the centrestage of national affairs. Politics in UP is likely to take a new turn if Mr Kalyan Singh decides to float his own party. He could then emerge as a third force in backward politics, the other two being Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ms Mayawati. Mr Yadav is the shrewdest of all. He is ambitious, calculating and target-bound. He derives his strength from his sizeable Muslim base which has earned him the nickname of Maulana Mulayam Singh Yadav. Interestingly, while retaining his pro-Muslim image, he has of late shown some flexibility in exercising his political options. The entry of Sakshi Maharaj, the right-hand man of Mr Kalyan Singh, into his party during the last Lok Sabha election is a significant pointer to UPs changing political profile. Equally noteworthy is Mr Mulayam Singh Yadavs hobnobbing with the former Chief Minister. Indeed, UP is in for a realignment of political forces. Who will gain in the process may be risky to predict at this stage. But the writing on the wall is clear. First, the BJP no longer enjoys the reputation of being a disciplined party. It is as vulnerable politically as are other political groupings in India. Second, within a short period of its being in power the BJP today looks like the saffron version of the Congress, having acquired all its weaknesses. Third, the BJP lacks a viable strategy for political management. Ad hocism is the mantra of its quick-fix politics. No wonder, it is is not sure how it can pursue its long-term goals while seeking short-term advantages. Fourth, Mr Kalyan Singhs formal exit from the BJP will change UPs political complexion. Whether the partys high command admits it or not, it will surely affect the BJPs fortunes in the state. It must be said that the case of the former Chief Minister was badly handled by the central leadership. Mr Vajpayee could have avoided confrontationist postures with the backward leader. True, the latter also failed to maintain decorum and was deliberately being discourteous to the Prime Minister. This cannot be justified. At the same time, one would expect BJP leaders to give a better account of their political management skill. Perhaps, they suffer from an old political disease called overconfidence. There are also visible signs of arrogance even among advisers and key functionaries both at the party and government levels. Of course, the poor, the backward and the Muslims must be helped to come up on the socio-economic ladder. This should be a firm commitment on the part of every Indian citizen, nay, of the nation as a whole. The problem arises when politicians play games. Who gains in the process? Surely not the people in whose name they promote their interests. Public memory is short. But it needs to be remembered that the violence unleashed in the early months of 1990 showed that it was perhaps one of the darkest periods of modern India. The country was then thrown back economically at least by a decade. Ironically, VPs approach to the reservation issue hastened his exit from South Block. An ailing person now, history will one day judge him and his populist postures on the reservation issue which at one stage divided Indian society. The cycle has turned full circle. Indian leaders are today not known for ideological commitments. They are an opportunist lot. Still, they try to become martyrs. Sensitive observers of the Indian scene do rightly become suspicious of such martyrs, especially the ones who stay alive even after martyrdom! Martyrdom or no martyrdom, we should have reasons to be worried about the growing rank of mini-VPs who all the while go in for a 100-metre dash without understanding the implications of their populist postures. It is one thing to work genuinely for the uplift of the poor, the underprivileged and the downtrodden. But to exploit the poor for political purposes is a criminal act. It is regrettable that the question of poverty has ceased to agitate the ruling class. The leaders who play the reservation card hardly care to look at the creamy layer within their own castes, the people who deprive the others of an opportunity to move upward socially and economically. True, our society at all levels is undergoing change. Things are no longer static. The entire socio-economic structure is in a state of ferment. There are also stimulants fostering change. All the same, there are no-changers galore who are wedded to the status quo. Infused with their own grab-all mentality, they have ceased to become the guardians of rationality. For that matter, logic and rationality no longer guide the new VP Singhs. For them, politics is a caste-based electoral game. They thrive on stunts by mixing politics with caste and money for electoral gains. Do we have any answers to such situations? In a democratic polity
like ours, honest communication with the people can make
a difference. Our main thrust now must be directed
towards the uplift of ordinary citizens, who are still
groaning under the weight of deprivation and injustice.
They must be helped to shake off their burden. Those who
graduate into a minimum standard of economic and social
wellbeing must make room for the less unfortunate
brethren. Social justice and equality demand it. It is a
pity that politicians look at every issue through the
prism of narrow partisan or electoral gains without
really caring for the poor, the underprivileged and the
downtrodden. |
Is
Indonesia unravelling? IS Indonesia unravelling? This is a question being asked and analysed everywhere, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. And rightly so because Indonesia is the fourth largest populated country, and has the largest Muslim population in the world. It is rich in resources and straddles important sealanes between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Indonesia has been severely buffeted in the last two years, starting with its economic crisis late in 1997. The recent referendum for independence in East Timor has created fears about its Balkanisation. The most immediate flashpoint in this respect is the resource-rich province of Aceh in northern Sumatra. It has nurtured a separatist movement since the mid-seventies. Its re-activation in the late eighties invited terrible retribution from the Suharto regime, creating a reign of terror in the province. After Suhartos fall, the demand for independence re-surfaced with greater vigour, leading to more killings and tortures on the armys part. President Abdurrahman Wahid is keen to settle the issue peacefully. The Acehnese are being promised autonomy, with substantial control over the use of wealth from the sale of their oil, gas, timber and other resources. The province is said to contribute about a quarter of Indonesias GDP, but has been allocated only a tiny portion of it for its own development. This has been a major source of contention between Aceh and the Jakarta-based central government. The Acehnese are also practising Muslims and want to model and govern their society according to their strict religious code. President Wahid has no problem with this. He is also inclined to put some of the military on trial for violation of human rights in Aceh, though that might create problems with the armed forces. But all these overtures might be too little too late. As things stand, the Acehnese do not want to settle for anything less than independence. Therefore, President Wahid is dangling the referendum carrot to buy time, and to hopefully win over the moderate political elements. But his referendum proposal, reported here and there in the Press, is vague and open to contradictory interpretations. Going by the East Timor example, it should include a choice between autonomy and independence, which doesnt seem likely. Even if Mr Wahid were inclined to consider independence, he would not be able to deliver. He would have a revolt on his hand from the military and a substantial part of the countrys civilian establishment. According to Major-General Sudrajat, the chief spokesman for the armed forces, A referendum on autonomy is fine. But a referendum on independence no, because it will lead to a Balkanisation process. Yesterday Timor; today Aceh, tomorrow Irian Jaya and the day after tomorrow Kalimantan. He has, indeed, warned that the army will defend the nations sovereignty, to wipe out separatism. Aceh, according to him, does not only belong to Acehnese. There are, therefore, calls at higher military levels for the declaration of martial law in the troubled province. At this point of time, the referendum question looks like a matter for the Indonesian political and military establishment to sort out before the Acehnese even come into the picture. And that simply means future trouble. President Wahid, though a well-meaning leader, is a mercurial figure. He is known for saying and meaning different things to different people. For instance, he was simultaneously opposing and supporting Megawati for the countrys presidency and ended up grabbing it for himself. He is a political wheeler and dealer which might not be much appreciated in Aceh, where they do not trust Jakarta. Aceh, therefore, remains a big question mark. And with it is tied up the territorial integrity of Indonesia. Unlike Christian East Timor, a former Portuguese colony, Aceh was integral to Indonesias freedom struggle against Dutch colonial rule. It is predominantly Muslim, like the majority of the Indonesian people. Therefore, its separation could have a disastrous effect on Indonesias territorial integrity. Even as he wrestles with the question of his countrys territorial integrity, an equally, if not more important, task for President Wahid is Indonesias economic rehabilitation and reconstruction. He is trying to deal with it at a number of levels. First, he is seeking to restore the confidence of Indonesias battered Chinese community. His appointment of the ethnic-Chinese Kwik Kian as Indonesias economic tsar is intended to send the right signals for the return of ethnic-Chinese capital. The mob violence against Indonesias economically influential Chinese community had led to the fight of Chinese capital and business people. Wahid has good rapport with the Chinese in Indonesia. The appointment of an ethnic Chinese as economic coordinator in his Cabinet should have a salutary effect. But it will take time and some semblance of stability. President Wahid is simultaneously working to activate IMF and World Bank loans and aid as well as bilateral assistance from the USA and Japan. He has visited both these countries with encouraging signs. If he is able to make headway in this direction, Indonesia should start attracting foreign investments, although its banking mess is still a serious problem. He has also to contend with the difficult Suharto legacy. People want justice done to Suharto and his family for stealing untold wealth from the country. Mr Habibie had quashed further investigation on the ground of lack of evidence. Mr Wahid is promising to press ahead with the judicial process of determining Suharto and his familys guilt, though he has promised to pardon the former President, but not his family. Mr Wahid said in the USA, Mr Suharto still has big followers (most notably in the armed forces), so we have to be careful not to, lets say, topple the cart. There is, therefore, a very delicate power balance between the army and the new political order be it on the Suharto question (a free-wheeling judicial enquiry could implicate a number of top- ranking army men as well as Mr Habibie), the Aceh referendum, the likely trials of army officers and so on. Above all, there is the
massive problem of widespread poverty and unemployment.
With a quarter of the population in poverty and the
economy still in doldrums, the situation is quite grim.
Indonesia has a safety system of sorts in place since the
middle of last year, but it has been full of holes and
rampant abuses. The Wahid government will need to put it
in proper and effective shape to ensure some level of
social stability. Without that, the country might simply
collapse from within. |
Why Japan resiled from CTBT
insistence IS JAPAN reconciled to a nuclear-armed India? Not yet, but it realises that India is too big and great and too important a country to be pressured into doing things it does now want to do. This is realism. But it has come too late, when a nuclear India has already become a fait accompli, when the nuclear powers are already reconciled to Indias nuclear status. It took years for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to take shape. Controversies were acute. There was much prodding and pushing to make nations sign it, even threats. After all that, two of its three sponsors the USA and Russia refused to ratify the treaty! A joke? No. It was as simple as that. And yet Japan insisted that India should sign the CTBT if it wanted sanctions against India to be lifted and its blocked credits release. Tokyos climb-down since then has been very apparent. India refused to sign the treaty because the treaty did not address itself to Indias security concerns. Besides, the treaty is discriminatory. While it gives the monopoly to the nuclear-haves, it denies nuclear weapons to the have-nots. And yet the treaty has made no provision to prevent nuclear blackmail. India had serious apprehensions of a blackmail by its two neighbours Pakistan and China which have been inimical and are nuclear-armed. Under these circumstances India had no other option but to arm itself with nuclear weapons to prevent blackmail. Kargil proved how this blackmail could have worked. And yet India showed enormous patience. Between Pokhran I and II, there was a gap of 24 years. India refused to cross the Rubicon. The world knew that Pakistan was engaged in making the bomb and that China and the USA were encouraging Pakistan. No one bothered about Indias anxieties then. But the moment India carried out nuclear blasts in May 1998, there was an effort to put India on the dock. India is and has been an advocate of a world free from nuclear weapons. It is, therefore, opposed to the perpetuation of a nuclear weapon regime, which is what the NPT and CTBT are really after. When India tested nuclear weapons, the reactions of the nuclear-haves were interesting. The USA and China, the countries which helped Pakistan, were most vociferous: The USA imposed sanctions and Britain expressed its displeasure in no uncertain terms. France took a more understanding view. So did Russia. But Japan was almost vindictive. It started punishing India by blocking loans. Why? What was it that Japan was worried about? Was it fear of a nuclear-armed India? This is absurd; for there is no conflict of interests between Japan and India. What is more, Japan is under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella. Then, what was it that alarmed Japan? Was it the prospect of having too many nuclear powers in Asia? Was it because Japan had voluntarily given up the nuclear option? Or could it be that Japan was under the impression that India did not count much in US calculations? This is reflected in Japanese investment in India a mere pittance of $ 310 million in all these years. No new projects have been launched after 1998 with Japanese assistance. And yen credits have been frozen for 18 current projects. Japan has blocked $ 2.5 billion official assistance and $ 12 billion loans from the members of the Aid-India Consortium. What is worse, Japan cut off all contacts with India. Jaswant Singhs visit to Tokyo was made conditional to Indian acceptance of the CTBT. In the event, it was Japan which climbed down. Once the US Senate refused to ratify the treaty, Japan became red-faced. There are other developments. There is a persistent demand in the USA that it must arrive at a strategic partnership with India. Such a possibility seems possible. America wants to create a new balance of power in Asia with a more powerful India to face the weight of China. Although such a coming together will have no military implications, it will have significant implications for Indias economic development. Be that as it may, it is a fact that there is a change in US policy. And Pakistans adventure in Kargil and the military coup there must have contributed much to the change in stance. Personal predilections played a role. The earlier US response reflected President Clintons prejudices. Similarly, Japanese reactions reflected the view of Prime Minister Obuchi, who was in 1998 Japans Foreign Minister. I do not subscribe to the view that Japan did not have a clear perception of Indias problems and that it was Jaswant Singhs presentation of Indias case which won the day for India. The Japanese are meticulous. Even then the security dialogue proposed between India and Japan is welcome. But this was proposed some years ago. Obviously, there was no interest in it, which explains why it was not followed up. The proposal to set up an economic commission is a different matter altogether. It is important and one wonders why such a commission was not set up earlier. Japan is Indias second largest trading partner and the fifth in investment. Japan is still in favour of India signing the CTBT. It says that India can delay the ratification! This may be a way out. But it can also be a trap. Whatever it may be, India cannot sign the CTBT without a consensus within the country among the political parties. This is a democratic country. As regards its nuclear ambition, Japan has been highly secretive. Information shows that Japan can switch to nuclear weapons and missiles within hours. It will be recalled here that Japan has already violated the three nuclear principles to which it is committed. it has already breached two of them. It is not for nothing that China is concerned over the recent US-Japan security agreements, under which Japans role in East Asias defence has been enhanced. Japans participation in the US theatre missile defence programme has been a matter of great concern to China. All these have provoked China to upgrade its weapon systems. This has, in turn, heightened the threat perception of India. Japan is not a nation
with a surfeit of moral commitments. India is. It is,
above all, committed to a nuclear weapon-free world.
Japan is not. This fact should not be forgotten. |
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