Akali split
THE Akali Dal and its oft-proclaimed enemy number one, the Congress, have a common trait. They split periodically whether they are the ruling party or are in opposition.

Deceptive truce in UP
TO many it would appear that the UP BJP's war of supremacy between the two interest groups — one led by Chief Minister Kalyan Singh and the other by the party's state unit chief Rajnath Singh plus two senior ministers Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon — has come to an end as given in newspaper reports.

World Cup security
INDIA made it to the Super Six of the last cricket World Cup of the millennium by the skin of their teeth, as it were.They should count themselves lucky that they would be playing against the team placed second in group "B" without any major injuries to the players.

THE RESIGNATION & AFTER
by S. Sahay
THE high point of the recent AICC session held at Talkatora Gardens was not the expected resolution thanking Mrs Sonia Gandhi for withdrawing her resignation from the presidentship of the party, but the speech of Mr S.C. Jamir in which he suggested do’s and don’ts for the party.

Indonesia: troubled times ahead
by S. P. Seth
THE seventh of June will be a momentous day in Indonesia’s history. The country will elect a new parliament to usher in a democratic political order. The Suharto era will be formally buried on that day.

Ill-effects of globalisation on Third World
by P. Raman
IN this era of consumerism- driven globalisation, it may be too unfashionable to quote Karl Marx, especially after the collapse of the Soviet edifice in 1991. But what the grand old man, now forgotten, had said in his Communist manifesto (1848) still remains very-prophetic.

Astrology delayed NCP naming
WHY was the naming ceremony of Nationalist Congress Party delayed by a day? Well, reports doing the rounds in the Capital say that although the name was selected in time, the reason for delaying the announcement was astrological.

Goodbye to a Keatsian
by D. R. Sharma
“ROMANCE of words” was the topic he loved to speak on whenever his old students of English literature teaching in different colleges in the state invited him to interact with their classes. There was something uncanny about his treatment of a subject, be it the stature of a tragic hero, or the plain chemistry of love.

75 Years Ago

No conference with Indian leaders
LONDON: As will have been seen from a Reuters telegram published in our last issue, the Premier stated in the House of Commons that there was no truth in the report that Mahatma Gandhi and other leaders had been invited by the British Cabinet to a conference in London.

Akali split

THE Akali Dal and its oft-proclaimed enemy number one, the Congress, have a common trait. They split periodically whether they are the ruling party or are in opposition. It is only a coincidence that the Akali Dal has broken into two on Sunday barely two weeks after the Congress went through a similar process. In both cases a smaller and weaker part has walked out angrily, claiming itself to be the real thing. Again, the division will weaken the mother party. both organisationally and in terms of popular support. The damage to the Badal-led Akali Dal will be much more than it will be for the Congress, since it is a one-state party and its tormentor-in-chief, Mr Gurcharan Singh Tohra, is no push-over. True, he is not as popular a mass leader as is Mr Parkash Singh Badal, but then he has the hugely influential Sant Samaj on his side and also the extensive patronage network he has built during his long years as SGPC chief. Former Akal Takht Jathedar Ranjit Singh is among his vocal supporters. He is sure to exploit these advantages in his no-holds-barred struggle to retain his Panthic base. It is the privilege of a weaker leader to throw everything he has into the battle, and Mr Tohra is not the one to give up a privilege easily.

A tireless campaigner, Mr Tohra can be expected to criss-cross the state in the coming weeks and months filling the air with his two stated charges and an unstated one. He has accused Mr Badal of gathering all powers — organisational, religious and administrative — in his hands and of being unwilling to delegate authority. The second charge is likely to hurt the Chief Minister more. The government is just not functioning and many Ministers look and act as though they are jaded and lack motivation. There are exceptions but not enough to counter the overall negative image. What Mr Tohra insinuates is that Mr Badal is engaged in building a dynasty, a term subjected to much ridicule at the national level.

Mr Tohra’s success will be in direct proportion to the popular response to these charges. Ever since that fateful December day when Mr Tohra asked the Chief Minister to shed his responsibility as the party chief in the wake of the stunning Adampur defeat, Mr Badal knew he had a major battle in his hands. Such has been the pattern of relation between the two leaders. but unfortunately, he did not take even one step to puncture the inevitable Tohra charges and today looks vulnerable. The first priority of the former SGPC chief will be to prove his clout in a negative manner. He will like to cut into the votes of the Badal Akali Dal in the coming Lok Sabha election. Going by his past record, he will simultaneously attack the record of the present Punjab Government and the alliance with the BJP. He is bound to tap the historic mistrust between the urban trading community and the rural farming community. That may also seriously damage the electoral prospects of the ruling alliance by hindering easy and assured transfer of votes. The Akali Dal is an authentic Punjab party and its weakening will go against the national trend of effective federalism. Mr Badal can still prevent it; he has only to free himself of unwanted responsibility and get on with his first job which is to give a dynamic and responsive government. That, even his supporters will agree, is easier said than done.

Deceptive truce in UP

TO many it would appear that the UP BJP's war of supremacy between the two interest groups — one led by Chief Minister Kalyan Singh and the other by the party's state unit chief Rajnath Singh plus two senior ministers Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon — has come to an end as given in newspaper reports. Or it will be revived only after the coming Lok Sabha elections. This is, however, not the truth. Since the dissident MLAs, numbering at least 25, have assured the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, that they would suspend their anti-Kalyan Singh drive to make the party appear before the electorate as a "monolithic unit" during the September-October parliamentary elections, they will not issue statements reflecting their unhappiness with the "Chief Minister's style of functioning". But there is no reason to believe that they will work for the party to emerge as the major gainer in the ensuing battle of the ballot. Even if the the BJP succeeds in recapturing the 57 seats it had won during the previous elections this would give more political strength to Mr Kalyan Singh which no dissident would ever want irrespective of the promises made before the Prime Minister. In fact, they may do everything possible , though in a very subtle manner, to ensure that their party's tally goes down. This will help them to revive their "remove Kalyan Singh" campaign with added vigour.

The ground realities are, however, not comforting for them. A close look at the available permutations and combinations makes one believe that the BJP may not be a loser in UP despite the loss of face it has suffered owing to the consistent efforts of Mr Kalyan Singh's detractors within the BJP. While his hold over his Dalit vote bank has not weakened, he is faced with a weak challenge from his adversaries in other parties — mainly the Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, the Bahujan Samaj Party of Ms Mayawati and the Congress led by Mr Salman Khurshid. The situation is such that the non-BJP votes will get divided between its three main challengers whereas those who have been committed to the saffron party are unlikely to discontinue their patronage to it. Of course, some of the upper case voters — representing 15 per cent of the total electorate — may shift to the side of the Congress because of the continuing control of a Dalit leader — Mr Kalyan Singh — over the UP unit of the BJP. But this loss may get neutralised owing to the division of the non-BJP votes. This is despite the entry of the Sonia factor into the play. Thus even if the BJP's central leadership has made up its mind to bring about a change in the leadership of the party's legislature wing after the elections as a result of visible (from the camp of the dissidents) and invisible (from the Sangh Parivar) pressures, it will be confronted with a dilemma: should it go according to its undeclared plan, or ask Mr Kalyan Singh's opponents in the party to accept the fait accompli? The second option will be a shattering scenario for the BJP dissidents. If they are able to foresee this configuration they may try to break the truce on some pretext even before the elections. But it all depends on how far they can go in their fight for protecting the interests of their group, composed of mainly upper caste leaders.

World Cup security

INDIA made it to the Super Six of the last cricket World Cup of the millennium by the skin of their teeth, as it were.They should count themselves lucky that they would be playing against the team placed second in group "B" without any major injuries to the players. In fact, they should offer special prayers for the safe return of Venkatesh Prasad to the pavillion after Javagal Srinath on Sunday took the last English wicket which made Edgbaston into a cricket stadium in India. It was not a pleasant sight to see Prasad being pushed and jostled by enthusiastic Indian fans. Of course, the supporters were only expressing their jubilation over India's emphatic 63 runs victory against hosts England in the last match of group "A". For some inexplicable reason the organisers have taken an indefensible stand on the question of better crowd control. A crowd is a crowd, whether in a celebratory or angry mood, which can go out of control for no apparent reason. The argument that the crowd coming onto to the field at the close of a match is an English tradition which "we would not like to change" is an open invitation to disaster. Both Mohammad Azharuddin and Steve Waugh have been more vocal than the rest in demanding improved security for players. The organisers of the biggest ever cricket carnival since the one-day game gained universal popularity evidently do not know, or pretend not to know, the difference between a World Cup match and a county game in which few spectators turn up to applaud the teams.

Azharuddin expressed his displeasure over lax security after Rahul Dravid and he were jostled by an angry Indian supporter when his team lost the match it should have won against South Africa. Steve Waugh had the same experience in the game against Scotland. Since he has seen crowd misbehaviour from a distance too close for personal comfort during Australia's tour of the West Indies he is, perhaps, more sensitive than others to being pushed around by enthusiastic fans or angry spectators. Instead of appearing to defend a "grand English tradition of field invasion" by spectators the organisers should take such steps as may be necessary for ensuring improved security to players because the intensity of the heat is likely to increase manifold at the Super Six stage of the tournament. They must remember that fans from the subcontinent, even if they have taken British citizenship, tend to get passionately involved in the games in which their teams figure. Indian and Pakistani supporters are likely to raise the physical and decibel levels of their involvement in the tournament because teams from both countries have entered the Super Six stage of the tournament. If the organisers continue to be as indifferent as they have been to the need for improved security for players, they would have only themselves to blame in the event of crowd violence in the game between India and Pakistan at Old Trafford on June 8.

THE RESIGNATION & AFTER
Contrast between two Gandhis
by S. Sahay

THE high point of the recent AICC session held at Talkatora Gardens was not the expected resolution thanking Mrs Sonia Gandhi for withdrawing her resignation from the presidentship of the party, but the speech of Mr S.C. Jamir in which he suggested do’s and don’ts for the party.

Those who have known the Congress for long, or who have been out of it, were certain that the theatricality of the resignation, especially the protestations of “we-die-without you” could only end one way: the withdrawal of the resignation by Mrs Sonia Gandhi after she had established her undisputed sway over it.

This is not to suggest that Mrs Sonia Gandhi was not shocked by the fact that no one came to her defence when Mr Sharad Pawar, Mr P.A. Sangma and Mr Tariq Anwar raised the question of her foreign birth, but then had she not been a novice in politics, she would have known that Congressmen, perhaps more than other politicians, had permanent self-interest but no permanent icon.

Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel understood this well. When his personal secretary, Mr V. Shanker, talked to an ailing Patel about the latter’s contribution to the party and the country, Mr Patel told Shanker that he knew the Congressmen better than his P.S. He had no doubt that, after his death, he would be speedily forgotten.

Nehru was great in many ways but he thought differently when Congress leaders, big and small wanted to rush to Bombay to pay their last respect to the Iron Man of India. He did not look with favour the idea of President Rajendra Prasad going there.

Mrs Sonia Gandhi seems to have the illusion of now knowing who her friends are. If by this she is referring to the leaders who submitted their farcical resignations to her and not to the appropriate authorities, to those who enacted the drama of immolating themselves, to those who camped at 10, Janpath, then it seems she is living in a dream world of her own.

At one stage she is reported to have peevishly said that her misfortune was that she was not Nehru’s daughter. Misfortune or not, certainly it has been a disadvantage. Indira Gandhi learned the hard way how her mother was ill-treated in that highly westernised family. She learnt to her cost that Vijayalaxmi Pandit considered her dumb, perhaps an idiot — a fact she was never able to forget and for which she never forgave her aunt.

Indira Gandhi had the great good fortune to have closely known Mahatma Gandhi and even endearingly be called the princess.

Her married life was far from happy and even by choice she decided to run her father’s household. She came to know all those who mattered in public life. She visited places, mixed with people and what is more, she never talked down to people nor looked down upon them. She knew her partymen individually and most of them by name. She knew and understood India. It is a different matter that she twisted the party and the institutions created by the Constitution to serve her family ends.

Contrast this with Mrs Sonia Gandhi. It is now a proven fact that it took her 14 years after marriage to become a citizen of India. Initially neither her husband nor she was interested in politics — all that interested them was good life.

Did Mrs Sonia Gandhi ever accompany her mother-in-law in her innumerable tours? How many villages did she see during Indira Gandhi’s time or spend a single night even in one of them?

The trauma that she experienced was caused by the dastardly murders of her mother-in-law and her husband. She deserved the nation’s sympathy on that score. But, then, there were compensations too. It is precisely for the reason that she was the wife of the slain Prime Minister and the favourite daughter-in-law of the slain Indira Gandhi that the party offered her the leadership, something she had the wisdom to turn down.

A possible reason could be the fear of the safety of her children, even her own. It is well known that she was averse to Rajiv Gandhi accepting Prime Ministership, but her husband impressed on her the necessity of his responding to the call of national duty.

After her refusal, Mr Narasimha Rao bacame the Prime Minister, but being the shrewd politician he is, he chose to show deference to Mrs Sonia Gandhi while at the same time chipping away the influence of the Nehru-Gandhi family in diverse ways. Mr Rao succeeded in lasting a full five-year term but in the process he weakened the party, especially after the demolition of the Babri Masjid and the subsequent Bombay riots. The Dalits had begun to leave the Congress even at the time of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, but the Muslims turned their face away after the destruction of the masjid.

What the Congress men cannot live with is failure, especially at the hustings, of their leaders. And Mr Rao had cooked his goose by calling upon those against whom charge-sheets had been filed to resign from ministership. Once a charge-sheet had been filed against him too, he had no alternative to standing down and handing over the reins of the party to Mr Sitaram Kesri.

Those loyal to the Nehru-Gandhi family got an opportunity to regroup themselves and the forcible manner in which Mrs Sonia Gandhi got herself installed as the party chief is still fresh in people’s memory.

Mrs Sonia Gandhi has obtained what she wanted: total surrender of the party to her personally. But, then, she is required to deliver the goods — to lead the Congress to success at the hustings.

As of now, this may not be easy. Mr Sharad Pawar and Mr P.A. Sangma are grassroots leaders, unlike some of those who surround Mrs Sonia Gandhi or proffer her advice. Their decision to form a new party, the Nationalist Congress Party, does not presage well for the Congress. They have reinforced the question of her foreign birth as an election issue. Add to that the issue of her experience and competence.

It is perhaps to neutralise the influence of Mr P.A. Sangma in the North-East that Mr S.C. Jamir was asked to move the AICC resolution and even allowed to suggest do’s and don’ts.

He suggested that no leader duly elected by party workers should be sidelined, and the election of leaders should be in accordance with the party procedure. He wanted internal democracy to prevail and matters freely discussed in the Congress Working Committee. He wanted the CWC to share Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s burden instead of shifting all the burden to her. Above all, he wanted that state leaders be given due importance in the party.

If all these welcome suggestions are adopted, where would the coterie surrounding Mrs Sonia Gandhi be, or she herself who has told the partymen in no uncertain terms either to follow her or to quit. The exaggerated assumption is that she is the party — an assumption possible only from the airconditioned seclusion of 10, Janpath.

Indonesia: troubled times ahead
by S. P. Seth

THE seventh of June will be a momentous day in Indonesia’s history. The country will elect a new parliament to usher in a democratic political order. The Suharto era will be formally buried on that day. A few months later the new parliament will elect the country’s President. And Indonesia will hopefully be a functioning democracy.

The 700-member new parliament will still have appointed members. Only 462 members will be elected. The rest (238 members) will be appointed or chosen by restrictive groups. For instance, 38 members will be appointed by the armed forces, and another 200 will be chosen by provincial assemblies and “ functional groups” like retired soldiers, women and students groups, etc. This will, of course, distort the country’s democratic process. But, at the moment, most political parties (48 of them are in the electoral fray) are more concerned with fighting the elections.

The Golkar party, the official political vehicle of the Suharto era, is very much alive and kicking. It has already nominated the current President, Mr B.J. Habibie, as its presidential candidate. The new parliament will convene later in the year to elect the country’s President. Mr Habibie’s close links with Suharto as his Vice-President and political successor will be a liability, both for him and his party. Polls show his popular support below 10 per cent.

His two high-profile rivals for the presidential office, Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri (daughter of Indonesia’s founding President Sukarno), leader of the Indonesian Democracy Party for Struggle, and Mr Amien Rais of the national Mandate Party, rate in the double figure of over 20 per cent.

Why then nominate Habibie and invite electoral damage? One can only speculate. First, as incumbent President he looks like the consensual choice within his party — one with the least contention. Second, he is probably the most dependable in terms of safeguarding the vested interests of the Suharto clique — and that includes almost everyone (including Mr Habibie himself ) who is anyone in the ruling establishment.

Third, Mr Habibie and his Golkar party are hardly a political write-off. They have the largest political network in the country, with most funds to disburse. And the party hacks and functionaries at the local and regional levels are already busy distributing their largesse.

Indonesia held its last free elections in 1955. Since then people have learnt to vote only by direction. The Golkar party is still the ruling establishment, with its functionaries (particularly in rural and regional heartland) not averse to using that advantage.

Fourth, Golkar can also count on political fluidity following parliamentary elections. They will be able to manage/ manipulate a fair segment of elected members (of other parties) and appointed seats to become a significant factor in the inevitable search for a coalition regime. And one shouldn’t completely write-off Mr Habibie as a light-weight consensual President in the midst of strong competing egos of his political rivals.

A Habibie presidency would obviously be an unfortunate outcome for Indonesia. With Mr Habibie as the consensual President beholden to an array of political interests, the country will be in an even bigger mess. Other alternatives are not terribly encouraging either.

Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri as President, in coalition with Mr Abdurrahman Wahid’s National Awakening Party, might seem a popular option, as she is also likely to have the support of the armed forces (ABRI) with the induction of General Wiranto as the country’s Vice-President. But the problem with Ms Sukarnoputri, apart from the fact that she is completely untested, is that she might come to represent the worst of Indonesian nationalism. She betrays signs of being a revamped version of her father, given to dangerous national and international grandeur.

There is, of course, the possibility that General Wiranto might eventually emerge as the consensual presidential choice on a national unity ticket. But that will be an exercise in desperation and might take the country on the path to military dictatorship. Indonesia is trying to escape this in the first place.

Solutions to Indonesia’s long-term problems lie in working out a federal democratic polity based on mutual accommodation and shared political and economic stake. But this is easier said than done.

Goodbye to a Keatsian
by D. R. Sharma

“ROMANCE of words” was the topic he loved to speak on whenever his old students of English literature teaching in different colleges in the state invited him to interact with their classes. There was something uncanny about his treatment of a subject, be it the stature of a tragic hero, or the plain chemistry of love. He never let Cambridge come between him and his listeners, though he worked there for a degree in the late thirties. Once we asked him to address our postgraduate students on Classicism and Romanticism. Even Francis Bacon, the master of aphorism, would have blushed when Professor Ish Kumar remarked: “Classicism, ladies and gentlemen, is like the control and cohesion of a salwar, while Romanticism is like the mysterious folds of a saree.”

I had just joined the university when I got a message from my boss to see Professor Kumar at his campus house. I got a bit nervous since a month or two ago I had alienated him by confessing my admiration for Alberto Noravia when some expert asked me in the interview which modern writer I had been lately reading. Since he loved poetry, tolerated drama and loathed fiction, I knew he would rate me low in the selection committee meeting.

So it was with considerable trepidation that I called on him. After the usual small talk at tea, he picked up his gun and fired the first shot: “What do you want to achieve in life?” he asked. I must have babbled something since soon after, with an eyeball-to-eyeball contact, he went for the jugular. And then came the second shot. It appeared that he knew quite a bit about any emotional history. “Young man,” he remarked, “I know that you are a good friend of my friend’s daughter, but is it going to be art for art’s sake or...?”

We value the book he presented to us as our wedding gift — Letters of John Keats. On the fly page had inscribed a quote from Voltaire counselling us to be “friends for the whole life” and not just be “lovers for a few days.” As a secret-sharer of my late father-in-law, Professor Kumar must have monitored my comings and goings after marriage.

The more I got to know him, the deeper grew my affection for Professor Kumar who was mistakenly called by some as a time-bomb. Yes, he never varnished his comments on men and matters and he never indulged in double speak. Not that he carried no scars or didn’t know who caused them, but he knew how to transcend them with a quatrain from Keats of a couplet from Iqbal or Ghalib.

In a few months Professor Kumar would have been centenarian. When we read about his death, the remembrance of things past began to rewind itself —his passion for bread pudding and long walks —and brisk, lively, conversation. His image as an athletic walker in shorts, with a baton in hand, stands out in our album of memories. His one grievance against me was that, despite being an early morning caller, he could never catch me in my pyjamas. Whenever he arrived he found me dressed up for the day. And my regret is that I denied him the opportunity to chide me on my sloppiness —something he must be still looking for from his “city celestial.”

Ill-effects of globalisation on
Third World

by P. Raman

IN this era of consumerism-driven globalisation, it may be too unfashionable to quote Karl Marx, especially after the collapse of the Soviet edifice in 1991. But what the grand old man, now forgotten, had said in his Communist manifesto (1848) still remains very-prophetic. He had said: “The bourgeoisie, by the rapid improvement of all instruments of production, by the immensely facilitated means of communication, draws all, even the most barbarian nations into civilisation. The cheap prices of its commodities are the heavy artillery with which it batters down all Chinese walls ... It compels all nations, on pains of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode; it compels them to introduce what it calls civilisation into their midst, i.e. to become bourgeois themselves. In one word, it creates a world after its own image.”

The spread of “mallcondo” commercialism with all its sweeping consequences on the people’s lifestyle all over the world, comes in sharp contrast to the increasingly uneven economic growth and development. The contradiction is so sharp. What the old man had 150 years ago described as heavy artillery of the bourgeois, has created such cruel contrasts as “obesity” of exclusive areas and under-nourishment in the adjoining slums. Reckless consumption, a recent study by the Indian Council of Medical Research says, has made half of the prosperous Delhi’s population overweight. The figure is as low as 10 per cent in the adjoining Haryana where sales-induced “effluenza” is yet to spread in an epidemic form. Sheer over-consumption has created the hitherto unknown problems like the widespread “child obesity” with all its consequences when the bulky generation grows up by the next decade.

The paradox is more pronounced in those developing countries which have embraced reform earlier than India. An increasing number of them are caught between the epidemic of “effluenza” on the one hand and a lower growth rate, deteriorating living conditions and adverse trade, on the other. The forced hi-tech marketing and lack of capacity to buy generates painful psychological clashes in individuals. This fatal conflict invariably leads to social tension, rise in crime and violence. James Gustave Speth, administrator of UNDP, warns the West against the ill-effects of such contradictory developments on developing countries like India.

Economic declines, he says, inevitably translate into political instability and social unrest. Sporadic rioting and looting have already broken out in East Asia, along with attacks on ethnic minorities. What began as a financial crisis has spread, and is tearing at Asia’s social and political fabric. “The world has become more polarised, both between and within the countries. The risk of a huge global underclass undermining international stability is quite real,” he says in a review in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs.

Even the World Bank has estimated that if the current recessionary trends continue the number of poor in East Asia will spurt from 40 million to more than 100 million in two years. The fall in the growth rate is not confined to the Asian “tigers” alone. In the case of Africa, it fell from 4 per cent to just 2.2 per cent and the forecasts for Latin America are down from 5.3 per cent to 2.6 per cent. See what the hasty and unfavourable kind of globalisation has done to the world. In the past 15 years, the per capita income has declined in more than 100 countries. Similarly, individual consumption has dropped by about 1 per cent annually in more than 60 countries. Of the 440 crore people in the developing world, three-fifths are living without basic minimum sanitation.

One-thirds do not get safe drinking water, one-quarter lack proper housing; one-fifth are under-nourished. About 130 crore people live on less than Rs 40 a day. In a large number of countries, life expectancy is still 40 years. Even those developing countries with relatively stronger growth rates are struggling to survive. The distortions in growth and unfavourable trade make them desperate. The external debt burden of the developing countries now totals $ 2.2 trillion. Of this, two-thirds is long-term public debt. This makes the crisis more serious. African governments now transfer four times more money to international creditors than they spend on basic health care and education.

Apparently, the globalisation did not have the desired effect on the developing countries. Two-fifths of the US trade goes to the developing world. Yet US development aid to them is declining rapidly. In 1960, four per cent of the US budget went to development and international affairs. Now it has gone to less than 1 per cent. “The costs of neglecting the rapidly growing international class divide will be immense, reaped in environmental harm, humanitarian disaster and economic growth,” James Speth warns.

An UNCTAD study says the overall effect of foreign direct investment on the balance of payment has been negative in India, Colombia Mexico, Iran, Malaysia, Kenya and Jamaica. Foreign direct investment accounted for only about a quarter — $ 350 billion out of 1.4 trillion — of the capital mobilised by transnational corporations. Still worse, much of this foreign direct investment is illusory because these were merely mergers or takeovers of existing companies.

We will no more be able to ignore the fallacy of forcing the market-driven consumerist culture of the developed countries on the third world without a corresponding minimum rate of growth and flow of capital. Such a process will only heighten the present dilemma. The tragedy has been that while our rich and upwardly mobile classes are madly falling in for the emerging Western culture, we have badly fallen behind in coping with their industriousness and commercial cunning and deceit. In 19th century, the French had derisively called the English a “nation of shopkeepers”.

Even James Twitchell, an apologist for consumerism, admits: “We (the Americans) are developing and rapidly exporting a new material (consumerist) culture.” And he merrily recognises the fact that the developing countries are “playing a frantic game of catch-up”. The burst of what Twitchell calls “mallcondo” commercialism has happened very recently. And it is spreading around the world at the speed of television. Television, because it is the most effective tool to spread it across the world. On this depends business — from cosmetics and beauty business to drinks and eats.

This spread is not accidental but an integral part of globalisation. In the process of the spread of this “effluenza”, they also export the epidemic of depression, the despoliation of cultural icons, the corruption of politics and the carnivalisation of holy events like Christmas. On carnivalisation, no one can beat us Indians — from Divali to local festivals. Take the mad consumption spree. Now the average American consumes twice as many goods and services as in 1950. In fact, the poorest fifth of the current population buys more than the average fifth did in 1955! Their new home on an average is now twice as large as the ones built in early ‘50s.

Even according to the US standards, this sudden resort to the mad culture of acquisition and consumption change in USA has been quite startling. What has happened in India and other third world countries has been only a reflection of this trend. No doubt, communication revolution and improved technics of marketing and the overbearing resources of the transnational firms have made this transplantation rather rapid. The comparison is striking. Recently, a US analyst said for its new consumerist classes, freedom meant freedom to buy and wear anything they liked.

“Without soldiers he is no king. Without a BMW there can be no yuppie; without tatoos no adolescent rebel; without Volvos no academic intellectual,” he says. BMW was quite quick to reach for our yuppie. We have apparently borrowed another trait from our counterparts in the West. The richest nation in the world has the lowest rate of voter participation among the industrialised countries. This apolitical attitude, disinterest in voting, is also so discernible in our own fashionable colonies during the elections.

Robert Frank in his new book, “Why Money Fails to Satisfy,” says that since 1980, the market for fine wine in America has grown by 23 per cent annually. The average size of new houses has increased to 2,000 square feet from 1,100 square feet in 1950s. That too of a nucleus family. While the top earners accumulated ever-larger fortunes, median family income dropped two percentage points between 1990 and 1995. Frank discounts the laissez faire economic theory of percolation and concludes that though the rich had spent more on luxury items, the society as a whole has not benefited from this.

Frank compares the mad pursuit of conspicuous consumption to the male deer which had through generations evolved ever larger antlers to allure females and thus propagate the species. In the process the male deer also got entrapped in the thick forest and perished. To prove this human equivalent of antlers, he says that to pay for larger homes and luxury cars, the modern consumers immerse themselves in debt, work through evenings and weekends, and like unwieldy bucks, find life increasingly difficult to navigate. He provides elaborate figures to establish that even in the richest West, the gap between the rich and poor is rapidly widening.

We still do not know the actual consequences of the information age. In 1960s, 33 per cent of the jobs were in the manufacturing sector. Now it has come down to 17 per cent. The head of the Washington-based Foundation on Economic Trends Mr Rifkin, estimates that by 2025, just 2 per cent work force will be factory workers. However, many contest such predictions based on the effects of computers and robots.

Astrology delayed NCP naming

WHY was the naming ceremony of Nationalist Congress Party delayed by a day? Well, reports doing the rounds in the Capital say that although the name was selected in time, the reason for delaying the announcement was astrological.

The leaders had proposed announcing the name of their party first on May 26, but pushed it back by a day stating that they would like to get clearance from the Election Commission first before making it public.

Finally, on the appointed day some leaders of the party went to the commission and handed over the necessary papers to start the process of registering the party.

Later, a “havan” was performed at the office of the new party, which happens to be the official residence of a former Congress MP from Wardha, Mr Datta Megha, who threw in his lot with Mr Sharad Pawar.

Amid chanting of hymns, Mr Pawar broke a coconut signalling an auspicious start before stepping into the new office which was decked up with flowers.

However, the ceremony amused some of the leaders in the parent party, (Indian National Congress) with one senior AICC General Secretary quipping about the havan. “I can understand it for Amar, but what about Akbar and Anthony”, an obvious reference to the trio of Mr Pawar, Mr Tariq Anwar and Mr Purno Sangma being referred to after a superhit Hindi movie of the seventies.

Right vs left hand

Mr Pawar and Co by naming their outfit Nationalist Congress Party have managed to link their identity with the parent party. The competition does not end here.

On the day the party was officially launched, the original flag of the Indian National Congress, the tricolour with the charkha in the middle, adorned the dais. Moreover, the NCP officials were claiming that it was now a fight between the “real” Congress and the Sonia Congress.

An element of drama was added when they pointed out that their headquarters too was No 10. The clash is between number 10, Bishamber Das Marg and 10 Janpath, the residence of Congress chief, Mrs Sonia Gandhi. As for the symbol, the party has yet to get it as it is under the EC’s consideration.

A political observer quipped that considering the commonalities of the two parties, one should not be surprised if the NCP goes in for the “left hand” as its symbol. This would be the perfect reply for the right hand symbol of the Congress.

Special website for poll

Considering the frequency with which it is occurring, a leading opinion poll and psephological agency has launched a specialised website on elections.

Development and Research Services, which is now one of the few frontline agencies that have spanned during the last decade and a half, is first off the block in this elections.

The website (www.drsonline.com) offers exhaustive information about the voting trends at national, state and constituency levels, analyses the extent of the volatility and swings, etc. The information pertains to general elections in the 1990s as the DRS chief GVL Narasimha Rao maintains that historical trends during the earlier years had little relevance insofar as their relevance is concerned for providing any pointers to the future.

Relevant information can be downloaded from the website which is free and does not require any membership. In order to make it interactive, the site has a webpage on Netizens Forecast where visitors can register their own forecast for the forthcoming parliamentary elections. The DRS will provide the average forecast.

Apart from the website, the agency has also prepared a CD-ROM which offers all this and much more data with in-depth analysis which could be a previous tool for all those who follow elections closely.

BJP bid to evoke sympathy

No sooner had the BJP-led government lost the vote of confidence, coloured posters with a gloomy Atal Behari Vajpayee appeared on the walls of Delhi carrying a message “What was the fault of this man?” The strategy behind the poster campaign was to evoke sympathy for the razor-thin defeat of the Vajpayee government.

No sooner, was the election announced, a big hoarding was put before the party headquarters at 11 Ashoka Road which asked “what was the fault of these men”. The hoarding had on the one side Vajpayee’s face while on the other there was Lal Krishan Advani.

Knowledgeable party stalwarts observed that possibly party president Kushabhau Thakre’s picture on the hoarding would have been in order but Advani’s face looked somewhat incongruous. It is only indicative of Advani’s hold on the party, a scribe said.

Trio to Indian eves’ rescue

The trio of Mr Pawar, Mr Sangma and Mr Tariq Anwar seems to be all hung up on the the issue of the Indian status of Congress supremo Ms Sonia Gandhi.

At a recent press conference held at Mr Pawar’s residence, the issue came up again when they announced their plans to float a new party and what would be its objectives.

During the briefing Mr Sangma pointed that one of the main objectives of the new party would be to ‘empower women’, which prompted one of the scribes to counter that the three had just ‘disempowered’ a woman. A smiling Sangma shot back immediately: “I am talking of Indian women”, which had newsmen in smiles.

(Contrubited by SB, Satish Misra, T.V. Lakshminarayan, K.V. Prasad and Girja Shankar Kaura).

75 YEARS AGO

No conference with Indian leaders

LONDON: As will have been seen from a Reuters telegram published in our last issue, the Premier stated in the House of Commons that there was no truth in the report that Mahatma Gandhi and other leaders had been invited by the British Cabinet to a conference in London.

The statement will cause no surprise in India where the report had not been credited. At the same time, it is just possible that the report was not absolutely without foundation.

It is not improbable, for instance, that somebody in England, somebody perhaps in close touch with the Cabinet, wrote to some friend in India, that it would greatly ease the present anxious situation in India if Indian leaders were to go to England, where opportunities could doubtless be found for an informal discussion of the Indian problem between them and members of the Cabinet.

It may also have been added that the cabinet would doubtless welcome such opportunities. But whether this is so or not, what we would ask in all seriousness is why the Premier contended himself with giving merely a negative reply to the question.

He could scarcely have been unaware that the Secretary of State had stated in another place in the most unambiguous terms that the Government earnestly desire to avail themselves of the “Swarajist’s disposition towards effectual consultation.”

What prevented the premier from stating in what precise way the government desired to avail themselves of this disposition if a conference was not to be held with the Indian leaders either in India or in England?