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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
![]() Thursday, June 10, 1999 |
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This pressure business Ban is not the answer South African polls
Strategic triangle
IDEA Reforms under scrutiny |
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Tackling burning issues her
passion
Tricks of the trade Sanitation and public cooperation |
Strategic
triangle IDEA When Russian Prime Minister Primakov, regretfully replaced now, visited Delhi in December last year he spoke of a strategic triangle consisting of China, Russia and India in the interest of regional stability. Mr Primakov came at a time when the USA and Britain had resumed the bombing of Iraq, bypassing the UN Security Council, and this had no doubt influenced the Russian thinking about the need to check the growing dominance of Western powers represented by NATO and led by the USA. Explaining his concept, Mr Primakov said that the triangular partnership could provide greater stability not only in the region but also in the entire world. Commenting on Mr Primakovs proposal, certain Western analysts had said that despite all the convergence of interests, the Asian traiangle appeared to be a difficult dream since India had a long history of tension with Pakistan as well as with China. Though China cold-shouldered the concept, it did not totally oppose it either. In India itself there was surprisingly very little discussion or debate on the idea. The international scene has witnessed dramatic changes after NATO powers militarily intervened in Yugoslavia in March this year. Yugoslavias economy has been devastated and its overall condition is compared to what prevailed in 1945 at the end of World War-II. While sooner or later NATO bombing will stop, several other crucial issues have been thrown up by the recent events. At the fiftieth anniversary celebrations at Washington NATO leaders came out with a new strategic concept whereby the military alliance could intervene in volatile regions even beyond its jurisdiction. NATOs intervention in Kosovo itself and its intensive bombing of Serb cities were without the UN authorisation. A new nuclear-oriented NATO doctrine was also put forth. It was affirmed that conventional forces alone could not ensure credible deterrence and nuclear weapons remained essential to preserving peace. NATO also declared that there would be no adherence to the no-first-use principle as it would tempt its adversaries to launch pre-emptive aggression against it. With this, the no-first-use principle in any countrys nuclear doctrine gets a permanent burial. Russia has been exercising restraint, not by choice but forced by its dire economic crisis. Under pressure from the Duma and army Generals Russia had announced that it was revising its military doctrine to face the new threat emanating from NATOs intervention in Yugoslavia. Plans for dismantling a certain number of Soviet missiles have been abandoned, and the development of advanced nuclear weapons authorised. President Yeltsin declared that the entire technological chain of the nuclear weapons complex from the scientific research in the field of nuclear weapons to carrying out of nuclear tests, to the production of such weapons would be taken up. These unexpected developments in the Russian defence doctrine, in response to NATOs intervention in Yugoslavia and its subsequent announcement of a new aggressive defence philosophy for NATO seem to have ended any hope of universal nuclear disarmament in the forseeable future. Thereby within a period of two months, at the turn of the second millennium, the NATO powers, led by the USA, have drastically changed the strategic climate not only in Europe but also the whole world. President Clinton has since put forth the Theatre Missile Defence system which is intended to throw a protective shield around Americas East Asian allies through the development of a series of spy satellites and missiles. Japan plays a crucial role in this scheme and it has now abandoned its pacifist role in Asia, forced upon it by the USA at the end of World War-II. The Japanese military has now been authorised to play an active role in assisting US forces deployed in the region. The other Asian allies are Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. Having watched these alarming developments, China has quickly changed its stance towards India. Its ambassador in Delhi, who was critical of India last year after he had just arrived, recently appeared before a well-known TV network advocating increased cooperation between the two countries. The Joint Commission led by Foreign Secretary Raghunath had useful and very friendly discussions at Beijing. A former Chinese ambassador to India hinted that the long-standing irritant of China not recognising Sikkim as part of India would be resolved to Indias satisfaction and that India should consider opening the historic trade-route across Nathu La. All these developments are significant and hold prospects of better cooperation between India and China. In Russia itself the power struggle at the top resulted in Mr Yeltsin appointing a loyalist, former Interior Minister Stepashin, as Prime Minister. Mr Yeltsins special envoy Chernomyrdins efforts on Kosovo had earlier been ignored by NATO but now they seem to be heading for a successful outcome. Russias status as the second largest nuclear power in the world cannot be overlooked. Mr Primakovs strategic triangle concept was recently reiterated by Russias Deputy Head of the presidential administration, Mr Sergei Prikhodko. Neither Russia nor China can forget that they have large ethnic minorities, mostly Muslims, in the far-flung regions of their respective countries. Russia would not like to have another Chechnya crisis nor China a repetition of what happened in its Uighur-dominated Xinjiang region. In short, the problems facing Russia, China and India in some respects, especially in the matter of border regions inhabited by ethnic and religious minorities, are common. After eight rounds of talks between Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh and the American Deputy Secretary of State Talbott, the negotiations have not made any worthwhile progress. The question of signing the CTBT by September is meaningless because of the elections. Signing of the CTBT or any other treaty pertaining to fissile material or missile production and deployment etc, has to be reviewed afresh in the wake of the NATO nuclear doctrine, the Theatre Missile Defence system announced by the Americans, and the Russian announcement of a revised nuclear programme. The extensive use of cruise missiles in Yugoslavia has also added a new dimension to the doctrine of war, with the indispensability of missile technology both for tactical and strategic use having been clearly demonstrated. India has been trying to come out with its nuclear doctrine in the near future but it would certainly call for extensive rethinking and revision in the light of the recent developments. After India carried out the Pokhran-II tests, the U S attitude has been totally negative to the extent of wanting to condemn India more or less permanently to the status of a non-nuclear power. The USA is not prepared to concede India a credible nuclear deterrence programme, combined with an improvement in and the deployment of missiles. In the context of all these major developments in the West and the East, the Primakov concept of strategic triangle assumes special significance. During Foreign Minister Jaswant Singhs recent visit to Moscow he was assured of Russias keenness in promoting a strategic partnership with India. Russias Security Council chief Vladimir Putin announced that a document on strategic partnership with India would be finalised by the end of the year. These are positive developments, and hopefully they will fructify without any hitch. The Pakistani adventure
in the Kargil sector and the determined efforts of
Indias armed forces to throw back the intruders and
secure the heights on the Indian side of the LoC are
escalating into a serious conflict. It has all the
potential of becoming a local war but wars do not remain
localised for long. If Pakistan opens new fronts
somewhere on the Rajouri-Poonch sector, the situation
will get further aggravated. In the background of this
potentially dangerous scenario, India has to seriously
consider ways and means of securing its long-term
strategic security interests. The strategic
triangle concept holds considerable promise in this
direction in the forseeable future. |
Reforms
under scrutiny IN view of the upcoming battle at the hustings, this is the season for writing election manifestos. A major issue on the economic policy front is whether the country should continue on the path of liberalisation and deregulation, or there should be reversal to a regime of preponderant state intervention. Votaries of liberalisation, who are in majority, argue that the reforms initiated in 1991 have freed the country from a moribund Hindu rate of growth and stimulated the economy. The sceptics, most of whom belong to the left of the political spectrum, contend that the liberalising reforms have not ameliorated the condition of the poor. It is thought-provoking that the World Bank has come out with a poverty update which seems to justify the contention of the sceptics. Referring to India, the Bank says: Preliminary evidence through 1977 shows increases in the number of both the rural poor (from 224 million in the early 1990s to 250 million in the mid-1990s) and the urban poor (from 72 to 73 million) in the post-reform experience. Two points are noteworthy. One, the increase in the number of Indias poor is largely ascribable to rapid growth in the countrys population. Two, the trickle down effect of economic growth in a liberalised economy takes time to percolate to the grassroots level. In the initial stages the well-off sections of the population derive more benefit because they have greater competitive ability than the underprivileged people. Therefore, it is absolutely essential that a policy of economic liberalisation should be accompanied by what is called a safety net for the poor. Safety net means that in a liberalised milieu the government does not abandon the poor to the mercies of a free market but, on the contrary, dutifully takes specific measures to provide the poor with their essential needs. The Indian government, while injecting doses of liberalisation into the economy, has failed miserably to provide a safety net for the poor. The public distribution system, which benefits the rich more than the poor, is a long-standing fraud. Implementation of the various anti-poverty schemes is riddled with inefficiency and corruption. Reliable estimates point out that only 15 paise out of every rupee spent reach the poor. If the country is to persist with liberalisation, the powers that be must realise that it is their altruistic duty to put in place a proper safety net for the poor. In his budget speech the Union Finance Minister, Mr Yashwant Sinha, declared that the time had come for a second generation of reforms. The Union Finance Secretary, Dr Vijay Kelkar, has picked up the thread and spoken about the second wave. The National Council of Applied Economic Research and the Confederation of Indian Industry have produced papers, the latter having sent its magnum opus to 22 political parties. Below are some of the reforms being discussed in the national capital: (1) Parliament should enact a fiscal responsibility Act limiting the revenue and budget deficits and safeguarding the economy from falling into a debt trap. (2) The Centre and the states should increase user charges for electricity, water and public transport. This is easier said than done. Several states, notably Punjab and Haryana, give heavy concessions in respect of electricity and water to keep the farm lobby happy. Various attempts to increase the charges have resulted in violence and arson by farmers. (3) The entire public sector, barring enterprises in such strategic areas as atomic energy, space and defence production, should be privatised. The CII would like to have a disinvestment target of Rs 15000 crore per annum up to 2001 and Rs 25000 crore thereafter. The unions and the Left parties are totally opposed to privatisation. (4) No investment proposal should need more than 10 approvals at the central and state levels, a process to be completed within 90 days. Transparent laws and procedures must be introduced to attract $ 10 billion of foreign direct investment in 2000-2001, rising to $ 15 billion by 2000-2003. (5) The Reserve Bank of India should be given more autonomy of the kind enjoyed by the US Federal Reserve and the Deutsch Bundesbank. (6) Administrative
reforms should be ushered in. The Gujral-led United Front
government succumbed to the blackmail of unions and
triggered a countrywide chain reaction which resulted in
the doubling of the salaries of government employees. But
it was too pusillanimous to attempt reforms. |
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