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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
![]() Wednesday, May 12, 1999 |
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spotlight today's calendar |
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Kargil
sets the pace BOFORS
TO THE FORE AGAIN
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Murder at home, assassins abroad Of cuts, kind and unkind
Civil Justice Committee |
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Kargil sets the pace THE increasing disquiet across the
Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir is primarily
the result of the troubles Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif is facing at home. Ms Benazir Bhutto is leading
what she calls a "jehad against the present
autocracy". The Press is angry and the majority of
the people are facing an unusually tough time in respect
of the availability of essential commodities. The
industrial situation has worsened. Even the judiciary
does not find itself in a state in which the dispensation
of justice can remain uninfluenced by internecine
political feuds. Afghanistan has ceased to be a
diversionary factor. The only way to drown the discontent
of the citizens is to increase the tempo of the proxy war
in India's troubled northern state. Since Sunday, the
Pakistani troops have shelled several Indian positions in
the Kargil sector of the frontier region of Ladakh.
Kargil town has suffered considerable loss in terms of
life and property. (Two days ago, there was a calculated
attack on an ammunition dump.) Shells continue to pound
the countryside. These are not skirmishes. These are
artillery assaults. Remember the 1997 attack by Pakistani
troops in the same area? This time the scale of
aggression has become larger. It is necessary to note
that the highway is being targeted fiercely. The
construction work on the bypass road has to be speeded up
and the districts of Baramula and Kupwara have to be
provided greater security in accordance with their need.
More than a dozen civilians were killed in Kargil on a
single day. The number of those injured is agonisingly
high. The Pakistanis are trying to damage the
Srinagar-Ladakh road to snap the supply line to forward
positions. Attempts at helping militants to enter
sensitive Indian suburban areas have been foiled by the
new dispensation of round-the-clock vigil. It is unlikely
that many more soldiers will succumb to Pakistani
violence now. The ones whose bodies were found recently
showed the desire to trust the tranquil element in the
dialogue between the commanders on both sides. Finding
the Kargil belt seared with heavy-weapon scars, the
defenders of Indian borders have rightly employed heavy
and powerful guns with a long reach. The destruction such
arms can cause to Pakistani positions in the occupied
territory can be immense. Since Pakistan does not reduce
the severity of its assault, a proactive reply has to be
given to every warlike move without let or hindrance.
Confidence cannot be built by bombshells. There is an
element of self-destruction in Pakistani moves to rouse
anti-India sentiments among the Pakistani people. When Mr
I.K. Gujral and Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee initiated
concrete steps to pave the way for peaceful neighbourly
relations, they often felt happy about the limited
triumph of well-intended diplomacy. But they have
forgotten on crucial occasions that success is a journey
and not a destination. Pakistan-watchers have predicted
the intensification of technologically upgraded
aggression in September and October. If the silencing
reply given to the Pakistani troops from Kargil, Uri,
Baramula and Kupwara is any indication, a determined
phase of action has begun on the Indian side. Here is a
word of advice for politicians in charge of military
affairs: "Before you judge your neighbour, please
walk at least a mile in his moccasins." |
Stock market smiling again POLITICS is going through a painful process of regrouping. Economics, however, is casting off its two-year-old lethargy and moving up in a brisk way. Stock markets across the country are flashing unmistakable signs of buoyancy and bounce. And unlike in the past, this time around the bull run, as market men call this phase, is likely to last long thanks to several factors. Though the market regulator, SEBI, has not fully neutralised the 20-odd big time speculators who run the Bombay Stock Exchange, the biggest in the country, as their fief, it has given enough indications that it would crack down, as it did in the case of former BSE president J.C.Parikh. That has had a salutary effect on small fries and the mood right now is to remain on the right side of regulations. This is the chief reason why bear pressure has ceased to be so severe or sustained as has been the case in the past. Then there is clear evidence of economic recovery and a smart increase in the collection of excise duty. Industrial turnover is up but profits are down thanks to high interest rates. In March exports went up, growth touching double figures. Above all, there is the record rabi crop, taking the foodgrains production beyond the magical 200 million tonne-mark. The resultant increase in rural purchasing power should give a push to fast moving consumer goods, strengthening the revival impulse in the economy. All these factors do not
explain the dramatic rise in the sensex, up by about 425
points or 15 per cent in three days. The biggest
contributor to the stock market rally is the well-known
fact that share prices in India are highly undervalued,
in many cases even those of bluechip companies are traded
at half their book value. This powerful cause remained
inert during the long bear hold, but has surfaced
strongly right now. Coupled with improvement in economic
health, Indian stocks hold great attraction. Western
investors, particularly pension and hedge funds, are
flush with money and looking for profitable places to
park them. India competes honourably with other Asian
markets and there has been a steady influx of dollars; in
April alone $225 million or Rs 1000 crore came in.
Analysts believe that this will continue as well the
heavy purchase by mutual funds. With buying interest
remaining intact, prices can go in only one direction
up. There is talk of the sensex touching 4000
points within a few months; the more optimistic ones talk
of a steep climb to 7000 points by the end of 2000. Even
at 3825 points the stocks in the BSE have cumulatively
gained nearly Rs 60,000 crore during the last few days,
wiping out the earlier loss of Rs 40,000 crore. It was
this amount that Mr Vajpayee talked of in his television
address. Is there a political link to the stock market
surge? Yes, say some experts. A caretaker government
cannot take any major decision and hence there is
absolutely no threat of a negative policy adding to
business worries. Nor can individual politicians issue
inane threats causing mirth in some quarters and fear in
others. It is obvious that politicians are the best loved
lot, whatever the reason. |
Hope for Muslim women THE right to maintenance granted by the judiciary in the famous Shah Bano case was considerably diluted by Rajiv Gandhi through the introduction of the Muslim Womens (Protection of Rights on Divorce) Act, 1986. The retrograde law was implemented primarily to appease Muslim fundamentalists as part of an ill-conceived vote bank politics. Mr Arif Mohammad Khan was the only Muslim leader in the Congress to leave the party as an expression of displeasure over Rajiv Gandhis anti-women policies. As subsequent events showed Muslim fundamentalists did extract their pound of flesh but still deserted the Congress in favour of a new political formation represented by Mr V.P. Singh. However, as far as Muslim women were concerned, the new law once again placed them at the mercy of their husbands in the event of divorce. Nearly 13 years after the retrograde law was passed, there may be some good news for divorced Muslim women fighting for an adequate amount as maintenance from their former husbands. The Bombay High Court has reinterpreted an important clause of the existing Act to provide some hope of a secure future to an illiterate and poor Jaitunbi Sheikh, deserted in 1979 and divorced in October, 1986 the year Rajiv Gandhi introduced the anti-Muslim women law. The provisions of Section (1) (A) were uptil now interpreted in favour of the husband whose maintenance liability was presumed to be automatically over after the mandatory period of iddat which ended after three lunar months. The Bombay High Court
has in effect reinvented the provisions by
stating that the Section in question actually puts an
important obligation on the husband to make arrangements
for the secure future of the divorced wife within the
iddat period of three months. Of course, the
fundamentalists are not happy with the interpretation of
the Bombay High Court and they may even urge the former
husband of Jaitunbi to challenge it in the Supreme Court.
As of today, the high court has directed the lower
judiciary concerned to work out by December the amount of
money to be given to Jaitunbi by her former husband from
the date of divorce in 1986. To be fair, the verdict, as
reported, suffers from several infirmities. Just two
questions. What yardstick the courts would henceforth
apply to work out the lifelong compensation package for
the divorced wife to be paid by her former husband within
the iddat period of three months? And, would
the woman be entitled to retain the amount she receives
as full and final settlement for her entire
future from her former husband even after she
remarries at the expiry of the iddat period?
What the Indian Muslim women need is a set of fresh and
progressive legislation to undo the damage caused by the
1986 Act. The Bombay High Court has, at best, provided a
ray of hope which may not last, unless the full verdict
has much more to say on the subject. |
BOFORS TO THE FORE AGAIN THERE are two ways of looking at the Vajpayee governments decision to prosecute a former Congress External Affairs Minister, Mr Madhavsinh Solanki, for his intriguing role in the apparently unending Bofors affair. One, that the resolve hasnt come a day too soon; the other, that the decision is driven by political motivation and might not have been taken at all if the BJP-led government hadnt fallen and fresh elections ordered. Ironically, both views seem valid even though they are diametrically opposed to each other. About the political motivation of the BJP there can be little doubt. For 13 long months lets not forget that in politics even a week is a long time the whole matter had lain before Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee and his colleagues and allies. They didnt move a little finger to bring the guilty men of Bofors to the book. It is no good for any defender or apologist of the saffron camp to argue that previous governments had been similarly inactive about Bofors for years on end. Surely, it was unrealistic to expect the government of Mr P.V. Narasimha Rao to take any action against any Bofors suspect, leave alone Mr Solanki. The subsequent governments of Mr Deve Gowda and Mr Inder Kumar Gujral were totally dependent for their existence on the oxygen of the Congress support from outside, and therefore paralysed on Bofors. The BJP government was not only different but also deeply committed to carry on a crusade against bhrashtachar (corruption). It may had compulsions to go out of its way to protect Ms Jayalalitha from the numerous and serious cases of corruption against her. But surely it was under no such constraint regarding Bofors. Nor can anyone claim that Mr Solankis prosecution was delayed because the necessary sanction from the President was not received in good time. The truth is stark and telling. The file to seek the Presidents approval for a former ministers prosecution was sent to Rashtrapati Bhavan only at the time when the Vajpayee government, after losing its majority in the Lok Sabha, also mustered enough determination or courage to prosecute the Defence Secretary at the time of the Bofors deal, Mr S.K. Bhatnagar. No wonder then that in the highly polarised and inflamed atmosphere it is generally believed that the decision to bring the Bofors issue to the fore is connected with the BJPs grand strategy of making Mrs Sonia Gandhi the main target of its attack. Whatever Mr Vajpayees views, the Hindutva hardliners have already made Mrs Gandhis Italian origin their main plank of assault. The arraignment in a court of law of Mr Solanki on the one hand and of Mr Ottavio Quattrocchi, a family friend of the Gandhis, on the other, would surely add to the punch packed in by the BJP-led forces into their anti-Sonia campaign. R.K. Laxmans cartoon, depicting the Bofors issue as a pre-historic monster being let loose on the Congress, says it all.However, all this and more having been said, the fact also remains that if anything is to be done about the canker of corruption in the Indian body politic it is better late than never. Let the right thing be done for wrong reasons rather than not at all. But even here a qualification is needed. To launch a series of prosecutions in connection with the Bofors kickbacks is one thing. To pursue these cases is quite another. It is no accident that not only in this country but also all over the Indian subcontinent dozens of cases of corruption are launched against the high and mighty in politics, and until six weeks ago not a single case has ever ended in conviction. To Ms Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan goes the rare but dubious distinction of being the first prominent political leader, and a former Prime Minister to boot, to be sentenced to prison and disqualification for holding public office. She continues to be outside her country, and in case she returns home, would almost certainly appeal against the Ehtsab (Accountability) Courts verdict. But that is a separate matter. The pertinent point is that in India, where flagrant corruption on a mindboggling scale has become the nations name, none of the high-profile looters and freebooters has ever been meted out his just deserts. It is against this bleak backdrop that some of the puzzling and complex features of the sordid Bofors saga need to be examined. The first and foremost of these is that bribes to the tune of Rs 64 crore were indubitably paid for the purchase of the Bofors fieldgun in spite of the ostentatious abolition of middle men in defence deals by the Rajiv Gandhi government. Secondly, while emphatically denying that either he or any other member of his family or anyone close to him had benefited from the Bofors deal, Rajiv, all through, gave the impression that he had something to hide. He and his best friend, Mr Arun Singh, then Minister of State for Defence, fell out because of Rajivs refusal to threaten the cancellation of the deal to force Bofors fully to reveal the names of those who had taken Bofors money. Thirdly, the Bofors scandal doubtless contributed to Rajiv Gandhis defeat in the 1989 general election, and Mr V.P. Singhs rise to power. While Rajivs reluctance to disentangle the Bofors mystery was understandable, Mr Singhs declaration that within 15 days of assuming power he would expose and punish the guilty men of Bofors was nothing but an empty boast. In the event Mr V.P. Singh remained in power for 11 months, but nothing about Bofors bribes was revealed, nor was anyone proceeded against. There was no let-up in the very high decibel noise on the subject. However, week after week, month after month, sensational disclosures were promised. But none ever materialised. In fact, it is no exaggeration to say that well before Rajiv Gandhis assassination Bofors had become something like King Charles head that makes its appearance at moments of political strife and then disappears for long intervals. For instance, it is no secret that whenever the wily Mr Narasimha Rao felt to be under pressure from 10, Janpath, he would instigate Mr V.C. Shukla (who else?) to start throwing dark hints about progress in the Bofors case. With the BJP and other parties bitterly opposed to the Congress and even more to the dynasty, it was an article of faith that Bofors would be enough of a deterrent to Mrs Sonia Gandhi from plunging into politics. She surprised everyone by jumping into fray during the 1998 elections and then stunned friends and foes alike by ousting Mr Sitaram Kesri and taking over the reins of the Congress party. She told her opponents to bring out into the open whatever they had about Bofors. The BJP has nearly six months to respond to that challenge. Three other points need to be made though this will have to be done tersely. First, Mr Solankis case is different from that of those who have got the lotely lolly from the Swedish firm. No one has accused him of any financial gain. But what he did was disgraceful and for that he should have been brought to book long ago. Instead, Mr Narasimha Rao and others, to their discredit, swallowed the ridiculous lie that the former External Affairs Minister does not remember the name of the lawyer who gave him a note which Mr Solanki duly delivered to the Swedish Foreign Minister. He pretends that he does not know the notes contents. The wide world knows it advised the Swedes to go slow on Bofors investigations. Secondly, Mr Quattrocchi is not the only one alleged to be a beneficiary of the Bofors money. So are the Hinduja brothers. But nobody says a word about them. Thirdly and finally,
utterly shameful though the Bofors scandal, is worse
things have happened. The urea scam, in which close
relatives of Mr Narasimha Rao are alleged to be involved,
is twice as large as the Bofors bribes. Bofors at least
delivered the guns which have served the Army well. An
amount of Rs 133 crore was despatched to international
crooks for urea, but not a flake of which has yet arrived
in this country. Nor a penny of the loot has been
recovered. |
Of cuts, kind and unkind CAN there be a kind cut and a friendly injury? Yes, we cops, and doctors too, know them. But for a common man, it is really difficult to even comprehend what these two terms mean. Let me explain. A kind cut is always from an enemy but an unkind one is from a friend. Remember Julius Caesar, when the well beloved Brutus stabbed him? That was the most unkindest cut of all...! Hindu scriptures abound in instances when a satanic hero, the wrongdoer, is killed by the Avtars and is thus redeemed in poetic justice and liberated in matters of salvation. About the unkind cut, I will dwell upon later in this piece but before that a friendly injury deserves treatment. Well, this one gets inflicted on its own, when you have your little finger chopped off, to be in line with those seeking martyrdom (apologies for the literal translation of Ungli katake naam shaheedon mein likhana) There is yet another nuance (?). If you want to make an equal or stronger case against your detractors, you get this injury with the help of a doctor for the assistance of a cop. Understandably you will have to first invoke an itch on the palms of both of these arbitrators and then grease them. The doctored injury thus polices your adversary and earns for itself the veritable status due to a friendly injury. And now about the unkind cut. A widowed mother in her forties with the active aid and assistance of her paramours, gets her 19-year-old son liquidated, since the latter had threatened her. The victim is transported on a two wheeler about 20 kilometres, and his body is thrown in a sugarcane field. The entire episode did not disturb me since cops and doctors after seeing the bodies almost daily are said to have overpowered what is known as the vaso-vagal attack or syncopy-temporary loss of consciousness on seeing blood and wounds. The burnt skin of the foot of the victim which had kept dragging on the metalled road shook me to the core. I asked the reason from a knowledgeable friend. He informed me that since I probed the burnt skin aspect and came to know the mode of execution of the darkest designs in lecherous humans scheme of things, hence the prick in the conscience. Even with persons who witness bloody scenes very often, certain still unusual revelations disturb their boldness. Another instance I remember is that of my brother-in-law being on his deathbed due to kidney failure. My nephew with a village-doctor was attending on him in the night. The last-minute efforts of the doctor to locate the veins did not yield any results. He asked my nephew to bring a blade. He gave an incision on the lower portion of the leg near the ankles called venesection in medical parlance. No blood oozed out. No vein was found. The wound was all white. My brother-in-law died. My nephew was in a state of shock at the death of his father but in a fit he screamed and screamed, almost tearing his vocal chords, No blood uncle, no blood! Poor boy had seen only blood oozing out from wounds all those small number of years in his life and a white wound sans blood was a strange sight to him. Sorry, readers, for all that blood and gore in the narration but the truth of life lies well tucked in the bodies of living beings. Unkind or kind cuts only bring the reality of life to surface. Human beings can safely blame this on bestiality. A wound with blood and
flesh throbs with life, maybe coming to an end, but a
white wound nauseates, may be this is a strange sight.
Kind or unkind, a cut is a cut; a cut above all. |
Destructive ways of the IMF WE are told by the IMF, and the World Bank and their second-tier institutions like the Asian Development Bank that foreign investment will work as a catalyst in the domestic economy. It will supplement the efforts of domestic capital, not compete with it. Unfortunately that is only doublespeak. Once a country has adopted a foreign-investment-led-strategy, these institutions see to it that domestic business is killed and the country is left entirely to the mercy of foreign capital. The ADB has reviewed the East Asian crisis in its recent Asian Development Outlook 1999. It has raised the question whether the IMFs policy of asking the Asian countries to pursue a tight monetary and fiscal policy may have been responsible for the deepening of the crisis. There are arguments on either side. But they can be better appreciated once we see them in the light of domestic versus foreign investors. Tight monetary and fiscal policy implies that inflation is likely to remain under control. If a government were to continue printing notes, there would be too much money chasing the same amount of goods, and prices would shoot up. Domestic inflation would bring forth a corresponding depreciation of the home currency. A tight policy would lead to the stabilisation of their currency. The impact of this policy on foreign and domestic investors is entirely different. This can be gauged in terms of three factors: exchange rates, interest rates and domestic demand. The foreign investor is more concerned with exchange rate stability, for example, say, the Ford Motor Co makes a billion dollar investment in India. That is equal to, say, Rs 45 billion at the exchange rate of Rs 45 to a dollar. Then the rupee depreciates, say, to Rs 90 a dollar. Now the investment of Rs 45 billion is worth only half a billion dollars. Tight monetary policy means less printing of notes by the government, less inflation and less chances of depreciation. It is beneficial to the foreign investors. A strong domestic currency does not beget domestic investors any such advantage because their purchases, sales, investment and debt are all largely denominated in domestic currency. Governments have to raise interest rates as part of a tight policy. The high interest rates lead to an increased interest burden on domestic borrowing. The demand for their production of iron and cement, say in the construction of roads, also declines. Such an increase in domestic interest rates is of less importance to foreign investors because they have access to low-interest foreign lending. They are also more export-oriented and less dependent on government contracts as domestic business. As a consequence, a tight economic policy hits at domestic investors and favours those of the foreign variety. The IMF pushed these countries towards a tight policy in the hope of wooing back foreign investors. Putting all ones eggs in the foreign investors basket was fraught with risks. The tight policy would cut domestic investment with certainty. But whether the confidence of foreign investors would be restored and they would come back would remain uncertain. Should such a change of sentiment not take place, as indeed it did not, then tight policy becomes entirely counterproductive. Domestic public investment does not take place due to a tight policy, domestic private investment does not take place due to high interest rates, and foreign investment does not come because sentiment remains unfavourable. This is what explains the continued difficulties of the erstwhile Asian Tigers. The impact of an expansionary policy would have been entirely different. Inflation would have increased and the domestic currency would have to be devalued. This devaluation would hit at foreign investors directly. This would make the environment unfavourable for the foreign investors but not for domestic investors. Inflation is not all that bad. World Bank economist Stiglitz has pointed out that inflation of up to 40 per cent does not destabilise the domestic investment. In fact, increased public expenditures pull up domestic private investment with the bootstraps. The expansionary policy also implies low rates of interest which favours domestic businesses. This is what the IMF should have done. Let domestic investment take over where foreign investment has left. Alas that was not to be. The ADB gives three further counter-arguments against an expansionary policy. One, that it will lead to an increase of foreign debt. This is not quite true. The real value of debt remains unchanged. Two, the ADB says that a crisis ridden country would need foreign exchange for meeting the demands of capital flight. Therefore, they should reduce their domestic demand and imports to conserve forex earnings for flight. But why not let the foreign investors lose more money? Three, the ADB says that
domestic governments need funds for bailing out their
banks and cannot fritter it away in other public
expenditures. Why not let the banks go bust instead? Let
the foreign investors, which have lent heavily and
abetted the profligate spending, share part of the
losses. |
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