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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
![]() Wednesday, May 26, 1999 |
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Return
of Sonia Gandhi POLITY'S
FRIGHTENING FLAWS |
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Four
years of Beant Singh assassination case Marriage:
a duet or a dual?
The
Prince and South Africa |
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Return of Sonia Gandhi THE suspense is over. Mrs Sonia Gandhi is back as Congress president after one week of high drama, which must have been reassuring to party loyalists but somewhat puzzling to onlookers. But then politics in India is never a simple affair. It is always guided by a spirit of mela and New Delhi has seen plenty of it in the past few days. In a way, it is part of Congress culture. Its operative mantra has of late been not high principles but leader-centric loyalty. Except the voices of dissent of Mr Sharad Pawar, Mr P.A. Sangma and Mr Tariq Anwar, most Congressmen throughout the country have publicly demonstrated where their loyalty lies. With this show of unity and solidarity, Mrs Sonia Gandhi returns to the party to take it over in a more reassuring frame of mind than probably was the case when the rebel trio raised some inconvenient questions, including the desirability of having a person of foreign origin as Prime Minister. Mrs Gandhi has given a spirited reply to this matter in her speech at the AICC special session. Her speech was both emotional and forthright. This should clear the anxiety of Congressmen who felt orphaned with her exit. For them, Mrs Gandhi occupies a special position not only because she has been part of the Nehru-Gandhi family but also as a charismatic person capable of getting them votes in the next election in September-October. The followers of the "charismatic leader" are invariably dependent on her for help in the process of actualising the electoral support in their respective constituencies. The critical test for Mrs Sonia Gandhi actually begins now. She now has a party which is expected to go fully along with her. In the process, a personality cult is born. This means that the 114-year-old party has to swim or sink with its undisputed leader. The repercussions of these developments will be far-reaching, not only in terms of the future of the Congress but also in terms of the country's electoral politics. The seal of legitimacy affixed on Mrs Sonia Gandhi's leadership by the CWC and the AICC does not mean that the issue of foreign origin will just evaporate. If anything, this matter is bound to be exploited by the BJP and some of its allies as well as by Mr Sharad Pawar's group. In fact, it will be one of the live electoral issues. The one disquieting aspect of this matter is a further division of the already fragmented polity. How adroitly and tactfully the Congress handles this matter remains to be seen. A lot will depend on Mrs Gandhi's personal response. She has said that she will leave the question to the public for a verdict. Looking beyond, much
will now depend on how Mrs Sonia Gandhi in her new avatar
reorients the party and takes up the real issues facing
it and the country at large. She has to insulate herself
against sycophancy and coterie politics which have been
the bane of the Congress for quite sometime. At one time
the Congress drew its strength from its grassroots
support. Things are not all that reassuring for the party
on this count. Laurels from the loyalists are fine but
they can hardly be a substitute for mass support and a
sense of direction for tackling the problems that affect
the man in the street. It will be worthwhile for Congress
leaders to do introspection and draw an honest
balancesheet of the desirable and not-so-desirable
happenings of the recent past. Mere euphoria cannot win
them the crucial election ahead. |
Upstarts as killers A MINISTER'S son and his bodyguard were arrested in Lucknow for allegedly killing a boy working as a domestic servant at the minister's residence. In Etawah, Anupam Yadav, son of Samajwadi Party Rajya Sabha member Ram Gopal Yadav, was arrested for allegedly shooting his younger brother. About a fortnight ago in another bizarre incident a DSP's son killed an ice cream parlour attendant for not giving him the flavour of his choice. Add to these incidents the "BMW killings" involving the grandson of a former naval chief and the recent murder of a high society model by the son of a Chandigarh politician and the picture which emerges is as frightening as the one which is haunting American society. The Littletown school massacre forced President Bill Clinton to make a public statement although opinion on the easy availability of guns is still sharply divided. However, there is a vital difference between the "factors of violence" in the USA and the acts of senseless killings in India. America is evidently paying the price for discarding the time-tested family values in favour of a permissive lifestyle. In India the roots of the problem lie elsewhere. The democratic process has given birth to a new political class which for centuries was at the receiving end of the power structure. The new bureaucratic, political and business elite is finding it difficult to cope with its self-discovered and self-sustained sense of importance. It results in an upstart youth mowing down pedestrians with his BMW and makes a young man from a well-connected political family put a bullet through a model's head for refusing him a drink. What should be a source
of worry for civil society is the obvious lack of
interest of the law enforcing agencies in at least
ensuring the conviction of the upstarts for the sin of
throwing their weight around all the time and killing if
necessary. Someone has rightly observed that in the 50
years since Independence India has moved away from swaraj
to "connection raj". In each one of the recent
incidents of senseless killings the suspects are from
well-connected families. The ice cream parlour killing in
Lucknow took place next to the office-cum-residence of
the District Magistrate. He was himself a guest at the
wedding where the DSP's son was caught by the video
camera to be literally performing a "revolver
dance" before he had the uncontrollable urge to
visit the parlour. First reports suggested that the
domestic servant was thrown from the sixth floor by the
minister's son with the help of the bodyguard. The
servant was first beaten up to make him confess to having
stolen Rs 15,000. The new police version is that the
servant jumped out to escape the beating. Initial reports
had it that Anupam Yadav had shot dead his younger
brother. The new version is that the gun went off
accidentally while Anupam, a nephew of Mr Mulayam Singh
Yadav, was cleaning it. While the progeny of the
well-connected go about killing people at will, the
Indian Prime Minister has other urgent issues to discuss
rather than debate the sins of the "connection
raj". That is the difference between American
democracy and the one which India claims to be
practising. |
Kosovo: USA in the dock THE US policy on the Balkan crisis is in tatters. It has been questioned by many thinkers, including two well-known foreign policy experts former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and ex-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. Dr Kissinger, who came to be referred to as Man Friday of the late President Nixon, during whose tenure the impasse in Sino-US relations came to an end, has taken the Clinton administration to task for its failure to foresee the limitations of airstrikes, even if by the combined military might of two-thirds of the world's firepower that is what NATO represents today. In his latest article in Newsweek magazine, if he calls the strategy of "graduated escalation" in air attacks as a futile thinking he is not unjustified. Even after two months of NATO action it began on March 24 against Yugoslavia there is no sign of its President, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, approaching any of the NATO leaders begging for peace, as was expected by at least Mr Clinton and his Secretary of State, Ms Madeleine Albright. The USA along with other NATO powers intervened to tackle the Yugoslavian crisis citing the pretext of large-scale human rights violations in Kosovo, the rebel province of the Balkan country. But with the NATO entry into the arena, the situation has only worsened. Lakhs of people have been rendered homeless. In over 26,000 sorties NATO jets have brought about unimaginable devastation in Yugoslavia, using more than 15,000 bombs or missiles so far and killing at least 312 persons. Yet there are no reports of the shattering of the morale of the Yugoslavian troops. That is why Mr Gorbachev, in a radio interview, says that NATO has failed to cripple Yugoslavia though it has broken "all its teeth" in the process. If this is what NATO could achieve while dealing with a not-so-strong Balkan nation, it will suffer greater humiliation in the event of a military engagement with Russia, China or India. Mr Gorbachev is not wide off the mark when he declares that it is a moral and political defeat for the USA and other NATO powers. The US strategists are
finding it difficult to come out of the Balkan morass.
While there is dwindling public support for the air
campaign (a decline of 9 percentage points since April),
any negotiated settlement at this stage may not be to the
satisfaction of the US policy managers. This is one clear
message from the G-8 countries latest efforts, yet
to reach the stage of fruition. If the G-8 initiative
results in a fiasco, there will be the only option left
for NATO: the use of ground forces. This will be
unavoidable to achieve the creation of conditions for the
return of the refugees to their native place, the primary
objective of the USA under the circumstances. But that
will mean sending back home bags full of bodies of
American soldiers, the most dreaded scenario for the
Clinton administration. Hence its reluctance to such a
course, though the so-called NATO consensus is showing
cracks mainly on this issue. |
POLITY'S FRIGHTENING FLAWS IT does not matter which way the current crisis in the Congress is getting resolved. If Mrs Sonia Gandhi has withdrawn her resignation from the party presidentship, it is because hordes of her heart-broken followers were begging her to do so. She could have stuck to her decision to go on working for the party without accepting any office in it, a resolve born of deep hurt over her patriotism being questioned because of her birth in Italy. In any case, Indian polity will not be the same as it was before May 15. Mrs Gandhis refusal to return to the Congress gaddi could have much graver consequences for the party and for its plans to bring the country back to its time-honoured secular and pluralistic moorings. It could, in fact, lead to the Congress defeat at the hustings, if not to its disintegration before the polls. Even if she has heeded the plaintive pleadings of her partymen, who made no bones about the fact that they were feeling orphaned, much of the damage already done to the Congress would remain irreparable. To say this is not to pretend that the revolt of Mr Sharad Pawar, Mr Purno Sangma and Mr Tariq Anwar, inevitably followed by their summary expulsion from the party, has dealt an unbearably shattering blow to the Congress or would necessarily lead to a vertical split in it. How many adherents Mr Pawar and his two cohorts attract outside Maharashtra remains to be seen. But whatever erosion they might be able to cause cannot be dismissed with a flippant wave of the hand by a party whose share of the national vote had plummeted to the historic low of 25 per cent 14 months ago. Moreover, the exodus from the Congress, as in the late eighties, can now be staggered. The distribution of the party ticket at election time invariably converts the disappointed ones into migratory birds, to borrow Mr Arjun Singhs felicitous phrase. At the very least, the post-expulsion situation has aggravated the besetting flaw of Indian polity, its frightening fragmentation, beginning in 1989, that has assumed alarming proportions since 1996, as painfully underscored by quick fall of four governments in succession in just three years. There is no way this gnawing problem can be evaded. Moreover, recent events, especially their tone and tenor, have rudely shaken the hope that many Indians were trying to nurture. Fragmentation of Indian polity, they believe, is unavoidable. The hope of a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha, leave alone the development of a two-party system, they hold, is unrealistic. But they were drawing some comfort from the expectation that the country might be moving towards a pattern of two loose coalitions, one around the BJP or more accurately, around Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee and the other around the Congress, headed by Mrs Sonia Gandhi, the two charismatic leaders constituting the two poles of the polity. Some plausibility was invested to this belief by what happened during the turbulent week when the Vajpayee government fell by the wafer-thin margin of a single vote. Notwithstanding lucrative inducements the two rival and evenly balanced combinations, with all their internal contradictions, did manage to remain intact. This state of affairs is unlikely to last. Already, several of the BJPs allies, such as Ms Mamta Banerjees Trinamool Congress, Mr R.K. Hegdes Lok Shakti and Telugu Desam, have openly welcomed the prospect of talking turkey with Mr Pawar and eventually coalescing with him. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party is delighted at the prospect. The AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, abandoning Sonia Congress, may join hands with Mr Pawars formation. In short, the revival of the Third Front, which appeared a pipedream a week ago, is a distinct possibility, which means that the incipient bipolarity of the polity looks like turning into a return to a triangular pattern of politics. It was this pattern which led to the felling of Mr V.P. Singhs promising regime at the hands of the BJP. This was well before the Congress brought down successively the luckless governments of Mr Chandra Shekhar, Mr Deve Gowda and Mr Inder Gujral. Instability of this kind, and the prospect of its continuance even after the September election, is bad enough. What makes it daunting, indeed dangerous, are two other major flaws in the Indian polity (sadly mutually reinforcing) which have been brought to the fore forcefully by the inflamed and often bizarre events surrounding the revolt within the highest echelon of the Congress and its ruthless suppression of Sonia loyalists, under the ugly mob pressure and in sheer disregard of established procedures for taking disciplinary action in a party which is 115 years old. Of the culture of sycophancy displayed for days on and around the complex in Lutyens Delhi where both Mrs Sonia Gandhis residence and the AICC headquarters are located the less said the better. Since Indira Gandhis heyday this coarseness has become an integral part of the Indian scene. In fairness, it must be added, however, that the cult of one party, one undisputed leader may be most noticeable in the Congress even if it is by no means confined to this party alone. How is the situation different or less off-putting in the AIADMK whose members prostrate themselves before Ms Jayalalitha with the same gusto which Congress stalwarts display during their daily genuflexion to Mrs Sonia Gandhi? Nor are things much different in parties like Mr Mulayam Singh Yadavs SP or Mr Laloo Yadavs Rashtriya Janata Dal. Come to think of it the doctrine of sole leader or vote-getter is not confined to political parties alone. The country has reconciled itself also to the notion that but for Sachin Tendulkar there can be no cricket team, just as, in the words of Mr Arjun Singh and other leading lights of the party, without Mrs Sonia Gandhi there is no future for the Congress. It is in this context that the third disastrous, indeed catastrophic, flaw in Indian polity stares us in the face. The Congress complaint to the President, and Prime Minister, Vajpayees broad agreement with it, that because of a hate campaign, the already high threat to Mrs Gandhis life has increased manifold is a cruel reminder that sycophancy on the one hand and hatred on the other are fast becoming the two sides of the same coin. The Congress alleges that the same clique that assassinated the Mahatma is now plotting to eliminate Mrs Sonia Gandhi. The governments reply is that it is cognisant of the danger, that it was Mr Vajpayee who had conveyed the intelligence warning to her, and that her security has been beefed up. That is good as far as it goes. But can this be a foolproof answer to the grim problem. After all, both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were also supposed to be heavily protected. Moreover, how is the lunatic fringe expected to behave when respected political leaders make a 180-degree change in their long-held positions merely because of their implacable personal hatreds? This having been said,
one must add that Congress leaders must also do some
introspection. The kind of mob intimidation, hooliganism
and violence (including the burning of effigies of not
only the rebel trio but also of Mr P.V.
Narasimha Rao) they orchestrated is a blot on their
copybook. The bashing up of Mr Sitaram Kesri, a former
party President, must make every Congress leader hang his
or her head in shame. On her part, Mrs Sonia Gandhi must
enforce discipline among the thugs masquerading as her
loyalists. |
Mixed outlook for the economy ELECTIONS in the middle of the new fiscal year (1999-2000) have cast a shadow on the economy, which has already experienced low industrial growth and the loss of export dynamism for three years in a row. It cannot be entirely a coincidence that these negative trends have persisted when unstable coalitions were in power at the Centre. Apex chambers have attributed the current woes of the economy to political instability. Not that the United Front government (1996-98) or the BJP-led coalition in 1998-99 failed to give high priority to economic growth and reforms. While these governments were long on policy pronouncements, effective implementation became the casualty in most areas, notably the control of fiscal deficit, infrastructure building and financial sector reforms. They lacked in fashioning a strategy to reverse industrial stagnation and the export slowdown. It is the dismal performance in industry and exports bringing down Indias competitiveness, together with the inexorable deterioration in fiscal balances in these three years, that have given rise to serious concerns about achieving a higher growth of the economy through essential policy reforms in the absence of a stable political regime at the Centre. While long-term assessments about India emerging a major global player, given its potential in human resource and endowments, are highly favourable, the next decade will be crucial in setting in motion the processes of structural transformation of the Indian economy. Part of Indias present difficulties are relatable to the Asian financial crisis and the world economic slowdown which impact on trade and capital flows. The coalitions of the last three years were in a state of dithering in implementing sensible and less controversial reforms in the areas of infrastructure, public undertakings restructuring, and disinvestment on which a commission had given a series of reports. Power and telecommunications have been the worst-affected sectors by procedural bottlenecks and departmental resistance. The Department of Telecommunications was allowed to become a stumbling block in implementing the telecommunications policy. A new government hopefully more stable than the recent dispensations would have to face up to the challenges of putting together a new policy framework which would help India overcome its economic stagnation and move on to a higher growth path and at the same time of mobilising the resources for conquering illiteracy, providing basic health care and drinking water, and generating massive employment opportunities. It is unlikely that such new policy measures as the post-election government might unfold in October-November would produce significant gains for the economy within a few months. Considering the limited vision of the 1999-2000 budget that the Vajpayee government presented at the end of February, 1999, and the inability of a caretaker government to push through more proactive policies, growth prospects for the current year are not rated high. This must be seen against the background of the unrelieved gloom on the industrial front during 1998-99 with manufacturing output down to 4.1 per cent from 6.7 per cent in the previous year. Barring capital goods and consumer durables, other industrial categories recorded lower growth rates. The official data for March, 1999, released recently do not thus validate the governments claim that industrial revival has begun. Apart from the lowest industrial growth in five years, 1998-99 also saw a further setback in exports which totalled $ 33 billion, a mere 3.7 per cent increase. In the mid-1990s, with growth averaging 18-20 per cent, India was hoping to hit a 75 billion dollar target in exports by 2001. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), investments will continue to be minimal during a period of political uncertainty, but agricultural growth, low inflation and recovery in exports, noticeable in the early months of 1999, could make up for the lacklustre industrial performance in the current year. Inflation has remained low for some months. Such low rates of price rise have to be viewed in the context of the decline in demand and the fall in global commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves at $29 billion also provide substantial cushion for the economy. The election year should
inevitably worsen the fiscal position of both the Centre
and the states which would go to the polls in the current
year. With many states already showing huge deficits, a
visiting IMF team has voiced heightened concern over
Indias high fiscal deficit which it sees as a major
constraint to the economy realising its potential to grow
at 7 to 8 per annum. IPA |
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