Signals from UP, Bihar
IF a storm howled through Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, a severe earthquake jolted Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, leaving deep cracks in the edifice of the ruling parties.

The new anti-Christ
THE election process is over and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition has secured a comfortable majority in the 13th Lok Sabha.

From poor to poorer
BEING near or past the billion-mark in the population race is bad enough. What is worse is the fact that the condition of the masses is on downward slide.

INDIA’s ELECTORAL SYSTEM
The flaws and remedies
by R. Venkataraman
A PARLIAMENTARY democracy requires a representative government, which will truly reflect public opinion or, as Mill called, the ‘‘general will” of the people. An ideal democracy is one which functions in consonance with the public opinion in the country.

Will gold glitter more?
by Bharat Jhunjhunwala
GOLD prices flared up last week from around 4200 to 4800 per ten grams. The immediate reason was an announcement by European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg that 15 European countries had committed themselves to restricting the sale of gold to 400 tonnes per year.

Wanted: new style, new approach
by P. Raman
AS Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee settles down at the South Block for the second time, his first concern is naturally going to be the formation of his new Cabinet. Rumblings had begun even during the victory celebrations. Understandably, the new team cannot be a photocopy of the same old one. He will have to give representation to so many persistent claimants within his party and the two dozen allies. Some like the Trinamul Congress had declined ministership earlier when it found it did not get the right portfolio.

A thankless task
by Raj Chatterjee
THE utter unpredictability of women is proverbial. Ignore her, be downright rude to her, deceive her with her best friend, if she is your wife (and not a heavyweight) put her across your knees and spank her bottom. She will hang round your neck like a branch of ivy or honeysuckle that clings to a wall.

75 Years Ago

October 12, 1924
Causes of Floods
SINCE the debate on the causes of floods took place in the Legislative Assembly, more serious floods have occurred nearer the seat of government and Simla itself has suffered from their destructive effects.

Signals from UP, Bihar

IF a storm howled through Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, a severe earthquake jolted Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, leaving deep cracks in the edifice of the ruling parties. In Bihar Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav not only stands alone but faces the prospect of large-scale defection of party MLAs. The misery of Mr Kalyan Singh, Chief Minister of the Uttar Pradesh, is easily understandable. UP provided “the big story of the election”, as a TV anchor was fond of saying again and again. The BJP tally came crashing down from 61 (including four MPs the party supported last time) to 29. What is worse, 40 sitting MPs are among the losers. There are several reasons for the eminently forgettable performance of the saffron party. Internal dissension is the chief cause. Mr Kalyan Singh’s supporters and detractors fought an open battle, and until the polling day. This was most evident in Lucknow from where Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee won with a reduced majority. The Kalyan Singh faction was involved in this election campaign only half-heartedly, forcing the Prime Minister to call in reinforcement in the form of Mr Madan Lal Khurana of Delhi. The second reason was the revolt by a saffron-clad sadhu who stripped the party of the Lodh community’s support. This led to devastating defeat in several constituencies of UP. The Jats of western UP deserted the party and the Muslims in eastern UP resorted to tactical voting with the sole aim of defeating the BJP nominees. Mr Kalyan Singh is in deep trouble, even though the party is safe and stable for the present. The election to the Assembly is due only in 2001 and there is time to put the house in order.

The agony of the BJP is the joy of the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress. The three parties have gained at the cost of the BJP. The SP has picked up six additional seats to the utter surprise of pollsters and media analysts. The BSP has added 10 more seats to its tally — from four to 14. The Congress is reborn in UP with 10 seats and a 16 per cent vote share. A significant pointer emerging from the election is the fact that the BJP is no more unbeatable and the second biggest party in UP — the SP with 26 seats — is within the striking distance of the BJP.

Bihar’s Laloo Prasad Yadav is the most anguished man in the country. He has not only lost 10 seats; he has also lost the aura of being the unquestioned Yadav chieftain. His party could send only one Yadav (Mrs Kanti Singh) to the Lok Sabha while the JD (U) sent as many as six. In the days to come there is a threat that his party MLAs may leave in droves, paving the way for the collapse of the Rabri Devi government and imposition of Central rule. What must be giving him nightmares is that the next election to the Assembly is due in March next. He does not have much time to revive his much vaunted “Laloo lehar”. Is it then time for Laloo sunset, as his ardent rivals hope for?

The new anti-Christ

THE election process is over and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition has secured a comfortable majority in the 13th Lok Sabha. The soul-mates of the BJP in the Sangh Parivar have not wasted time in putting on the front-burner and on high flame their anti-Christian agenda. The scheduled four-day visit to India of Pope John Paul II from November 5 has provided the right platform to the RSS, the Bajrang Dal and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad activists for stepping up their campaign of hatred against conversion and related missionary work. They are opposing the Pope’s visit on the ground that he has yet to renounce attempts to “force” tribals and members of other Hindu sects to embrace Christianity. He has also not indicated his stand on the related missionary work of Christian nuns and priests in all parts of the country. If the Sangh Parivar’s conditions for letting the Pope visit India are accepted, he would, among other things, have to “tender an apology for forced conversions and atrocities committed against Hindus”. As if to indicate that they mean to stop the Pope from visiting India, the members of the VHP have decided to start a 15-day yatra from Goa to Delhi on October 20 which would cover Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. Their list of “don’ts” for the Vatican’s head includes taking part in religious functions. The logic for putting the condition is simple. If he is visiting India as a Head of State, he should not participate in religious functions; if he is coming as a religious head, he should not be treated as a State guest. The VHP’s claim that it has opened “ekal” [single-teacher schools] for keeping an eye on the activities of missionaries is not an empty boast.

At least in Punjab, where the SAD-BJP coalition is in power, the Sangh Parivar has succeeded in getting official support for their demand for a “close scrutiny” of Christian activity. As of today, a 12-day prayer meeting from October 6 organised by local Christian organisations in Jalandhar is in the eye of a storm. The RSS, Bajrang Dal and VHP activists have succeeded in pressuring the local administration into investigating the “hidden agenda” of the organisers. For instance, Christian leaders have been reportedly asked to inform the administration about the veracity of the claim that an agenda for the millennium includes the conversion of 50,000 Hindus to Christianity every week and that funds are pouring in from all over the Christian world for the implementation of the project. Understandably, there is fear as well as resentment among members of the Christian community in Punjab over the “help extended to the Sangh organisations by the administration.” The response of the Centre to the revival of the anti-Christian rhetoric of Sangh members would be known only after Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee is sworn in as Prime Minister on October 13. During the Manoharpur outrage he had supported a nationwide debate on religious conversions rather than unequivocally criticise the killing of Graham Staines and his two sons by Dara Singh and his men. An issue which needs explanation is the shift in the anti-minority stand of the votaries of Hindutva. So long as Indian Muslims were at the receiving end of their ire, the Christian world seldom reacted even to specific atrocities. Now it sees the votaries of rabid “religiosity” who oppose conversion and other missionary work as more dangerous than the original anti-Christ it has been fighting for the past 14 centuries. The report prepared by a US group against the anti-Christian acts of the Sangh Parivar was the first polite warning. If the hotheads are not reined in, the second warning may be more sharp. And the anti-Christ are seldom served a third warning by those who have made Islam look like the most retrograde faith in the world.

From poor to poorer

BEING near or past the billion-mark in the population race is bad enough. What is worse is the fact that the condition of the masses is on downward slide. A recent World Bank report underlines the hopelessness of the situation when it says that India has become home to the majority of the world’s poor and the rate of poverty reduction in the country has slowed down dramatically in the current decade. The poverty amelioration scenario is even worse in the rural areas, because humanitarian assistance is waylaid when channelled through corrupt state systems. Small wonder that there are hundreds of millions of extremely poor people in the country. Some may try to dismiss the “Poverty trends and voices of the poor” report as western propaganda except that it has been diligently prepared after surveying 60 countries and interviewing 60,000 men and women to hear the “voices of the poor”. Moreover, it has been prepared by an Indian, Deepa Narayan, and other staff of the Bank’s poverty reduction and economic management and human development networks. The real worrying part is that the vicious circle of the rich-poor gap is spinning faster and faster. The already yawning gaps are now so phenomenal that it would require a superhuman effort to bridge them. Unfortunately, there is no man or woman in sight who can fit the bill. The report does not say so but one of the reasons for the hopeless situation could be the long bout of political instability. The poorest of the poor have come to be treated as cannon fodder in the battle of votes and no party commits itself to ameliorating their lot.

Better education could have brought about some improvement but even that light has more or less diminished. There is already a 16.6 per cent difference between the school enrolment of girls and boys aged between six and 14 years in the country. That is why 15 to 19-year-old children from the richest 20 per cent of the households have completed, on an average, 10 years of schooling. On the other hand, hold your breath, children from the poorest 40 per cent households have had no schooling on an average. Women are losing out vis-a-vis men by a big margin. Obviously, those belonging to the economically weaker sections, particularly if they are of the “weaker sex” to boot, have very little appreciation of their rights and are, therefore, exploited to the hilt. “Poor women spoke of having to bribe forest officers for each bundle of firewood they collected and railway policemen for coal dust they gathered from railway tracks,” laments the report. Anyone who has moved among the poorer people would admit that there is no exaggeration in such allegations. It is just that many of those who have to suffer such indignity day in and day out have reconciled themselves to the “inevitable misfortune”. In place of castigating the Bank for the “bias”, it is necessary to apply correctives at once!

INDIA’s ELECTORAL SYSTEM
The flaws and remedies
by R. Venkataraman

A PARLIAMENTARY democracy requires a representative government, which will truly reflect public opinion or, as Mill called, the ‘‘general will” of the people. An ideal democracy is one which functions in consonance with the public opinion in the country. A House constituted by electoral malpractices such as booth-capturing, rigging, bribery or coercion of the electorate can hardly be called “representative” of the people. Likewise, an electoral system which does not reflect the majority view of the electorate cannot be called democratic, notwithstanding the holding of periodical elections and maintaining the trappings of democracy.

For instance, direct elections through territorial constituencies in a multi-party system where the candidate who gets the highest number of votes (but not the majority of the votes cast) is declared elected, produces a Parliament representing a minority of the voters and is not a representative House. Let us take a parliamentary constituency in which four candidates belonging to different political parties contest the seat. The votes are so split that no one gets a majority of the votes cast. If in that constituency 10,000 votes had been cast and that candidate “A” secures 4,000 votes, “B” 3,000, “C” 2,000, and “D” 1,000. The candidate securing 4,000 votes is declared elected while 6,000 votes in the constituency were not in his favour. A House constituted with members elected on a minority of the votes cannot be called a representative Parliament.

An analysis of the votes secured by the ruling party in India in the past shows that no ruling party did secure 50-plus per cent votes in any election. When the Congress secured 415 seats in the Lok Sabha in 1984, it had polled only 48.1 per cent of the votes cast. When the Janata government in 1977 secured 297 seats, it had polled 43 per cent of the votes cast. In my view the entire distortion of the Constitution occurred because neither the Lok Sabha nor the government was at any time constituted with the majority of the votes.

The Law Commission has fully taken note of the weakness in the direct election through territorial constituencies in a multi-party system. To remedy the hiatus between the votes polled and the seats secured, the commission has suggested the adoption/adaptation of the German electoral system which provides for 50 per cent seats to be filled by territorial constituencies, and the other half by proportional representation from the list filed by parties according to the votes polled in the general election. The commission has suggested that the Lok Sabha should be enlarged by 25 per cent of its present strength, and that 25 per cent should be filled by proportional representation, according to the votes polled by the various parties.

Apart from the scheme being too complicated for our electorate, I am not sure that 25 per cent of the seats filled by proportional representation will correct the distortion caused by 75 per cent of seats elected on the principle of first past the post. Secondly, a person chosen from the list by proportional representation may be undesirable, criminal, or corrupt. The citizen has no right or opportunity to vote him down. The Lok Sabha is the custodian of the national finances and it is the House that has the power to appoint or dismiss a government.

The Lok Sabha members are answerable to the electorate. To induct into the Lower House a member who has no constituency to face and not direct obligations to the people is to dilute the primacy of the Lower House, recognised in all democracies in the world. I am not sure whether this rule in Germany is part of the constitution drafted by the occupying powers or a later amendment. I wonder if there is any other democracy which has indirectly elected members in the Lower House.

As part of the reform, the Law Commission has suggested the adoption of the rule in the German constitution that if a party secures less than 5 per cent of the votes cast in a general election, these votes shall be transferred to other parties which are qualified and distributed in proportion to the votes secured by them. I paused and tried to imagine the situation and the consequences. I am a radical and I voted for the radical party and got elected to a seat from a constituency. My party did not secure 5 per cent of the votes cast. So my vote was pooled with others and distributed to the conservative party in accordance with the proportion of the votes it got. The result? A vote cast in favour of a radical manifesto goes to strengthen an opponent in political ideology!

How can a radical’s vote go to strengthen the conservative party? A vote is the symbol of the political affinity of the citizen. It is not a chattel to be transferred with or without his consent. In a single transferable vote the voter expresses his next preference. Whereas in the scheme envisaged the votes of one party are transferred to other parties without his knowledge or consent.

Another suggestion of the Law Commission is that if a party does not score 5 per cent of the votes polled, then the member of that party elected in a territorial constituency will forfeit his seat and his seat will be taken over by the candidate who polled the next largest number of votes. This provision appears neither theoretically sound nor practically wise. To deprive an elected member of his seat, except on a judicial finding of commission of election offences is an affront to the constituency and the electorate. As one who has faced the electorate several times, I feel the suggestion would be least popular.

Another suggestion of the Law Commission that non-party candidates should be debarred from contesting elections, I am afraid, will be violative of the fundamental rights of the citizen. In any event, it will have absolutely no support from any political party or the people. I am not unaware of frivolous candidates cluttering up the ballot paper and causing confusion to the voters. I had earlier suggested that in order to meet the situation it may be provided that the minimum votes for saving deposit be raised to 20 per cent of the votes polled and the candidate who forfeits his/her deposit in an election to the legislature of the Centre and the states should be debarred from seeking election to any statutory body — from the panchayat to the level of the President of India — for a period of six years.

The elaborate recommendations of the Law Commission based on the German model appear to me to be unnecessary. For over a decade I have been suggesting that in order to ensure that each member represents the majority in a constituency we may adopt the system of a second vote. In France, a candidate securing 50-plus per cent of the votes polled in his/her constituency will be declared elected to the National Assembly immediately. If no candidate gets the qualifying percentage there is a “run off”, a repoll within a week between the top two candidates and the winner is declared elected. This system ensures that in all constituencies of the National Assembly the member secures a majority and thereby the National Assembly represents the majority of the votes polled. But in India, as I explained earlier, the Lok Sabha has been constituted by a minority of the votes cast for the past 50 years.

I am happy to note from Press reports that the Law Commission has endorsed the idea and I hope it will be accepted by the country. This scheme will completely eliminate the need for constituting Parliament with members partly directly elected and partly elected through proportional representation as suggested by the Law Commission.

I had been suggesting this for over a decade, but neither the political parties nor the intelligentsia picked it up. It appears that the political parties have developed a vested interest in the continuance of the present confusion, so that even parties with a little over 10 per cent membership of the House may hope to have their Prime Minister.

One more suggestion I would like to give is to make voting compulsory for the Union and the State Lower Houses. At the first sight it may look a formidable and forbidding task. But if we look at the issue from the grassroots level, it will prove that the scheme is eminently feasible. For instance, the biggest panchayats have around 8 to 10 thousand population while small ones have 500 and above and the number of voters, excluding minors, may be around five thousand. Is it such a formidable task for the local authority to ensure that these five thousand people attend the polls? Instead of candidates distributing slips containing the name and number of the voter and the polling booth, the panchayat itself may undertake the task and also ensure the voter exercises his franchise.

The advantage of compulsory voting is that the voter realises that he is not conferring a favour on the candidate but exercises his duty as a citizen. I advocated compulsory voting during the general debate on the Representation of People Bill on the Provisional Parliament in 1951. Dr Ambedkar, who was piloting the Bill, while expressing sympathy for the idea, felt it might be a great burden. True, it might have been difficult in 1952 when we were introducing adult franchise for the first time, but it should be no problem after 52 years of Independence. Compulsory voting has been in vogue in Australia for several years.

I welcome all the other suggestions of the Law Commission and I compliment the Chairman on the comprehensive report presented to the country. It may be advisable to have two separate Acts: the Political Parties Registration Act; and the Political Parties Regulation Act.

Secondly, in the rules regarding the no-confidence motion put forth by the Law Commission, I would suggest a small change that instead of two resolutions — one expressing the want of confidence and another proposing the new incumbent — there may be a single resolution expressing the want of confidence and proposing the new incumbent so that when the resolution is carried, the new incumbent would have already secured the vote of confidence of the House.

(The article is based on a speech delivered recently by Mr R.Venkataraman, former President of India, at the India International Centre, New Delhi.)

Will gold glitter more?
by Bharat Jhunjhunwala

GOLD prices flared up last week from around 4200 to 4800 per ten grams. The immediate reason was an announcement by European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg that 15 European countries had committed themselves to restricting the sale of gold to 400 tonnes per year. But by historical standards these “limited” sales are quite large. They do not quite explain the increase in the price of gold. The real factor which may have led to the increase in the price is that the US dollar has been weakening and, therefore, gold is once again being seen as safer than the greenback. And if the US economy continues to come under stress we may see a further rise in the price of the yellow metal.

Let us first dispel the notion that the present rise in the price of gold is due to the “reduced” sales. The price of gold does not show much correlation with such sales. Between 1990-95 the (net) official sales were to the tune of 954 tonnes but the price of gold rose to $ 400 at the beginning of 1996. Since then gold sales have continued at the same steady pace. During 1995-99 (up to January) the sales were at nearly the same level at 992 tonnes but the price declined to the low of $ 250. Sales have continued at the same pace of about 200 tonnes per year. But during 1990-95 prices increased while during 1995-99 they declined. This indicates that these sales are not the key determinant of gold prices.

Neither do the sales explain the jump in gold prices in September-end. All that the European banks committed themselves to was to limit gold sales at 400 tonnes per year in the next five years. That excludes sales by non-European Central Banks such as those of Argentina, Australia, Canada, Czech Republic and Venezuela which too have sold more than 50 tonnes of gold each in the last few years. The total sales from all central banks combined in a five year period then will continue to exceed by more than twice the 200-odd tonnes that were sold in the preceding decade. If these sales were decisive, the sale of 400 tonnes gold per year should have led to a decline in the price of gold; not an increase. We have to look elsewhere to unravel this mystery.

Our suggestion is that the price of gold has more to do with the weakening of the dollar. In fact, the swings in the price of gold are better explained by the fortunes of the dollar than by official sales.

During 1990- 95 the price of dollar had been declining against the yen. A dollar was worth 145 yen in 1990. It was worth only 85 in 1995. This decline in the dollar may have cajoled the investors to put their money in gold. We saw the gold prices rise to $ 400 per ounce. During 1995-98 the tendency was reversed and the dollar rose against the yen. In mid-1998 the dollar was again trading at 145 yen. This was accompanied with an opposite movement in the price of gold which fell to $ 250.

The price of gold rises as that of dollar falls and vice versa. During 1990-95 gold prices were on the rise while the dollar was falling. During 1995-98 gold prices were on the decline while the dollar was strengthening. The price of gold, therefore, is more sensitive to the value of the dollar rather than to the sale of gold by the Central Banks. The present increase in the price of gold may likewise be linked to the increasing pressures on the dollar. Since mid-1998 the dollar has been on the decline again. Currently the dollar is trading at about 105 yen. No wonder the price of gold has shot up.

The picture is complete except for the delay. While the dollar started weakening in mid-1998, the price of gold has flared up only in mid-1999. This delay can certainly be attributed to the heavy sales of gold by various central banks in this period.

The conclusion then is that the present increase in the price of gold is more a reflection of the weakening of the dollar, and less so of the announcement of limits on the official sales of gold. Certainly Duisenburg’s announcement that the European Central Banks will sell no more than 400 tonnes of gold a year may have been the immediate trigger which unleashed the upswing but that was not the underlying cause. Official sales at 400 tons-a-year by the European Central Banks alone are still unprecedented.

The fundamental problem is that investors are looking for a safe warehouse for their wealth. The dollar looks like a good bet as long as it is on the upswing. But once the downslide starts people can get panicky. A study by the World Gold Council shows that over long periods of time gold retains its purchasing power while that of Government bonds can erode. In Germany after World War-I and France during World War-II, for example, the value of investment in government bonds eroded because of hyper inflation but gold retained its value. Similarly, in Japan during 1940-49 the return on blue-chip stocks was 14.9 per cent while that on gold was 73.6 per cent.

There is a tradeoff between gold and paper securities. Gold provides protection against a potential crisis like that of the world wars. Paper securities provide better returns as long as the currency is stable. But if the currency destabilises then the gains of decades can be wiped out in a jiffy.

The present upswing emanates from the fact that the G-7 countries have not committed to intervene in arresting the slide of the dollar. In the last week of September the Finance Ministers of G-7 agreed that the yen was overvalued and that the dollar’s decline was not healthy. But they were unwilling to sell their own holdings of the yen to bring it down. They wanted Japan to weaken the yen by printing more notes. The USA was unwilling to reduce the printing of dollars to prop it up. This reluctance among G-7 to put their house in order indicates a basic shakiness of their economies, including that of the USA. It is this weakness of the dollar that lies behind the increase in the price of gold.

What should the Indian investors do? This is the million dollar question. The answer rests on one’s perception of the US economy. If one sees the dollar coming out of its difficulties then one should invest in paper securities. But if one sees the dollar in danger then it is time to buy gold, despite the present increase. Although it is hazardous to make a guess, I am not optimist about the dollar and would not be surprised if gold touches the figure of Rs 7,000 in the next year or so.

A thankless task
by Raj Chatterjee

THE utter unpredictability of women is proverbial. Ignore her, be downright rude to her, deceive her with her best friend, if she is your wife (and not a heavyweight) put her across your knees and spank her bottom. She will hang round your neck like a branch of ivy or honeysuckle that clings to a wall.

Worship her, run errands for her day and night, hand over all your worldly goods to her, including your monthly pay-packet, call her your “devi” and put her on a pedestal — and you are lost. You will be sneered at as half a man, or not even that.

If you try to be the perfect husband, full of solicitude for your wife, your marriage is doomed from the start. Bear in mind Oscar Wilde’s dictum: “Women love us for our defects. If we have enough of them they will forgive us everything, even our intellects”.

And long before Wilde made himself the darling of London’s society hostesses (till they discovered one or two “defects” in him) Thackeray had said: “When I say that I know women I mean that I know that I don’t know them. Every single woman I ever knew is a puzzle to me as, I have no doubt, she is to herself.”

Hear also what Byron had to say on the subject. He, as you know, knew more about women than any person dead or alive with the possible exception of Dr Marie Stopes.

Byron said, “There is a tide in the affairs of women which, taken at the flood, leads God knows where”. There must be millions of men all over the world with the same question hanging on their lips.

I did not get up from the wrong side of my bed this morning to be writing in this vein. I was sitting on the verandah, sipping the cup of tea gently and respectfully placed by my side by the woman I married nearly 60 years ago and to whom I have been anything but a perfect husband. Hence the gentleness and respect.

Along with my tea, I was scanning the foreign news in my morning paper. In it was a report from Berlin which, instead of surprising me, only strengthened my belief in regard to a husband’s proper role in a successful marriage such as mine.

I read that a woman living in the town of Lueben, wherever that might be, has divorced her husband because he was a model of perfection in everything he did in the house — cooking, baking, cleaning, washing-up, shopping, baby-sitting and window-washing.

“After a while it drove me mad,” she told the judge. “What was there left for me to do?”

The poor, deluded, milksop of husband was so “perfect” that he did not even contest the action for divorce!

In contrast, nearly 60 years ago, when my wife asked me to change our eldest child’s nappy I said, ‘That’s your job. I’ve done mine.’

Wanted: new style, new approach

by P. Raman

AS Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee settles down at the South Block for the second time, his first concern is naturally going to be the formation of his new Cabinet. Rumblings had begun even during the victory celebrations. Understandably, the new team cannot be a photocopy of the same old one. He will have to give representation to so many persistent claimants within his party and the two dozen allies. Some like the Trinamul Congress had declined ministership earlier when it found it did not get the right portfolio.

Apart from the intense lobbying for the prized positions — the JD(U) itself has at least six strong nominees for senior Cabinet posts — Vajpayee will also have to ensure that important portfolios are in the best available hands. In Indian coalitions, once a ministerial team is fixed, it would be an uphill task to recast it at a later stage as it might invariably open the floodgates of more conflicting demands. Vajpayee himself had faced a similar dilemma. The importance of the Cabinet formation exercise is that it will give us an idea about the new pre-eminence achieved by Vajpayee within the coalition and the increased complexities of the new alliance and the emerging balance of power within it.

This apart, it is imperative for the new BJP dispensation emerging around a more powerful Vajpayee to redefine the nature of coalition it is called upon to lead. It also calls for a redrafting of the essential rules of coalition. The BJP never had a well defined concept of coalition or front and had always dealt with the issue in a perniciously ad hoc manner. While the Congress is yet to reconcile to the very thesis of coalition, the BJP had initially taken to it only as a means to expand itself. During the L.K. Advani era, the party had experimented with the Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra. It has been an exceptional case. Even while doing so, the BJP had ridiculed the UF as khichdi, and considered coalitions as a source of instability.

The BJP’s attitude changed only after it faced a total isolation during its ill-fated 13-day government in 1996. Even during the 1998 elections, it only had a seat adjustment with the allies. How cavalier has been its understanding of the coalition is evident from the hurried drafting of a ‘national agenda’ to meet the demands of certain allies. During the entire period, it went without even a name. It was called the ‘BJP alliance’ and no partners found it odd to describe themselves as ‘BJP allies’. The National Democratic Alliance was hurriedly formed more to stake claim to be invited by the President as a pre-election alliance to form the government.

A coordination panel was set up. But initially, the BJP leadership tried to confine it as a formal body to endorse the Prime Minister’s decisions. The BJP managers made it a point that no controversial issue should be brought before the multi-party panel. It was on the specious ground that discussions in such fora will only highlight differences among the allies and do use it for self-aggrandisement. Thus they wanted the controversial issues to be sorted out in a personalised manner directly with the bosses of the allied parties. It was interpreted that frank discussions at the steering committee had led to open differences within the UF. When controversies gripped the ‘BJP alliance’ the meeting of the coordination panel was delayed or put off. The TDP, as a strategy, kept out of it. An angry Mamata Banerjee had boycotted.

As yet there is no indication from the BJP about any change of mind with regard to its attitude towards the coalition and its functional aspects. An important message of the 13th Lok Sabha has been that coalitions are going to be an unavoidable feature of Indian democracy in the forseeable future. The NDA will now have to adopt and develop healthy norms and procedures to meet the new challenge. Old outdated concepts like ‘prime ministerial prerogatives’ and his/her superior position will have to be reviewed. There can be situations when the interests of the prime minister’s party and the partners may clash. This kind of ‘prerogatives’ have its origin in one-party rule where the prime minister is supposed to be the boss of the entire parliamentary party.

Already, the sacred powers to choose the Cabinet colleagues and assign portfolios at will, have been taken away from the coalition prime minister. Many such single-party era customs will have to be revised to suit the requirements of a vibrant multi-party government. For instance, the Defence Minister who heads an important alliance party had come to know of the Pokhran II blasts just before it took place. International negotiations on crucial issues affecting the nation’s future and on which some allies may have reservations, are conducted in secret. Even the powerful Home Minister is kept in the dark on many such issues. Let us not forget that so many decisions taken by the Vajpayee government in the past had to be rolled back due to objections from the allies. With considerable embarrassment to Vajpayee.

The changing power alchemy and reassertion of the regional power as has been highlighted by the election results, will have reverberations in the future power game at the Centre. In the new Lok Sabha, the allies have gained more numerical strength whereas the BJP itself has remained static. No dominated party or its big brother can hereafter take his/her own decisions and impose them on their self-made allies. The Prime Minister’s own coterie will come increasingly under scrutiny if it continues to take things for granted. Formation of the JD(U) and the entry of the Trinamul Congress and TDP will give it added importance. What is needed is an effective coordination machinery to resolve controversial issues by consensus through prior discussions rather than post-decision imposition. Om Prakash Chautala’s open protests against the diesel price increase is a pointer in this regard.

Much ambiguity persists with regard to the theories of the two-party system and bipolarity, the age-old parallel of the big fish swallowing the small ones and the much talked about demise of the third front. The election results provide valuable lessons to all players on each of these issues. The most important lesson has been a reiteration of the collapse of the single-party rule in India. Existence of a BJP alliance and broad non-BJP camp should not be mistaken for a two-party phenomenon. The results reveal the pre-eminence of the state parties like the TDP, DMK, BJD, Trinamul and JD(U) in Bihar. They had set their own terms on seat sharing and dominated the campaign in their respective areas.

After their electoral reassertion, no one can now ignore their dictates at the Centre. The BJP will have to bow to their wishes on all issues. The small fish have demonstrated their independence and strength beyond doubt — even within the NDA. The latter cannot survive without the former but the former can, if they choose so. The other crucial role being played by the small fish in the big Indian pond relates to restricting the election agenda to the specified pockets. As a result, simulated national waves like Kargil and Vajpayee aura did not sweep across the country. Mismanagement by Laloo Prasad Yadav, Kalyan Singh and J.H. Patel affected the fortunes of the major players in all these states — not Vajpayee aura. Thus the small fish resisted both physical and emotional poaching into their domain by the big fish.

Also, those who have hastily written the obituary of the third front have been badly disappointed. The ‘others’ may still be a loose description. But they have individually been able to establish their own existence. Along with the Left, they account for as much as one-fifth of the new Lok Sabha. With the present comfortable majority for the NDA, this assorted group may not pose any threat to the government. But in the event of a crisis in the ruling NDA — which in principle cannot be ruled out for all time to come — their role can be crucial.

The results also tend to heighten BJP’s Hindutva dilemma. By and large, BJP’s secular allies seem to have successfully overcome the much feared minority backlash on them. This is especially true of the powerful southern allies. With this special obligation to the minorities, the secular allies will be all the more alert on issues affecting the rights of both Muslim and Christian minorities. When the attacks on Christians began last year, even senior leaders like Advani had initially taken an ambiguous stand. For a while, Vajpayee too seemed helpless in disciplining the Hindutva extremists of his parivar.

Even on issues like Ayodhya, Article 370 and Common Civil Code ambivalence still rein in the Prime Minister’s parivar. No responsible leader, including Vajpayee, has so far given the assurance that the BJP’s traditionally accepted anti-minority plank has been abandoned for ever. Govindacharya says it is only a five-year moratorium. After this, the party would be free to resort back to the Hindutva bigotry any time. Another version is that it still remains part of the BJP programme but as a partner of the NDA it was bound to follow the latter’s secular prescriptions. Whatever may be the actual position of the BJP, the issue is going to be the bone of contention between the BJP and its secular allies in coming years.

It is difficult to say how long the pre-poll truce with the hardline RSS cousins on minority bashing will last. But the tussles between those who are bent on de-communalising the ruling party to remain in power and others in the parivar who want to make the present soft-pedalling only as a temporary tactics, still go on. We do not know what shape will it take when the present euphoria gradually dies down.

75 YEARS AGO

October 12, 1924
Causes of Floods

SINCE the debate on the causes of floods took place in the Legislative Assembly, more serious floods have occurred nearer the seat of government and Simla itself has suffered from their destructive effects.

During the debate it was stated that inadequate attention paid by the Railways to the provision of proper outlet for flood water was not a little responsible for the obstruction of flood water and the consequent destruction.

It was also stated that it was the duty of the local governments to investigate the matter and draw the attention of the Railway authorities to such defects.

We hope that the governments concerned will appoint a special officer or officers to find out the causes of floods and ascertain if Railway embankments and the lack of proper drainage work are responsible for the damages caused by the floods to any extent.