It’s economy all the way TRADITION ordains that the President of the Indian Union should be the first to unveil the newly elected government’s priorities and policy thrusts.

CWC's stocktaking
DESPITE the omission of a few expected matters of socio-political concern and almost deliberate avoidance of an inner debate, the Congress Working Committee has met fruitfully for two days.

Mamata’s wrong priorities
MS MAMTA Banerjee has got the ministry she had set her heart on. She is not hiding her glee over having become the Railway Minister of India.

STRESS ON TRIBAL WELFARE
Implications of creating new ministry
by S. Sahay
THE creation of a new Ministry of Tribal Affairs at the Centre and bestowing on its minister Cabinet status is undoubtedly guided by the BJP’s political interest in consolidating its hold on the tribal belt, particularly in Bihar, but it has wider implications too.

The crime menace in S. Africa
by Hari Sharan Chhabra
A COUPLE of Indian media colleagues were mugged and robbed in broad daylight in Johannesburg on their recent visits to South Africa on professional duties.

Reform vote bank and fund bank
by P. Raman
“UNDER the guise of correcting the past wrongs, the Congress government actually surrendered to the IMF conditionalities. With a gun at its head it began to do what it does best — double talk.... The paradox is that the greater the liberalisation, the more demanding is the involvement of the government to protect national industry and employment ....” This is neither a Leftist platitude nor the outbursts of an irresponsible Mulayam Singh Yadav. This is how the BJP’s 1998 election manifesto under Atal Behari Vajpayee had warned against uncalibrated liberalisation and globalisation.

In the office & outside it
by Iqbal Singh Ahuja
LIVING in an officers’ colony is a blessing. One gets good neighbours and has the advantage of sharing one’s views with the intelligentsia. I have always felt that an officer should come out of the office to have a first-hand information instead of getting it through notings in the file.

75 Years Ago

October 26, 1924
Notice served on jatha members
AN Akali jatha of about 60 men arrived, at Lahore by train at 1 p.m. yesterday. Dr Paras Ram, Secretary, Provincial Congress Committee, accompanied it.

It’s economy all the way

TRADITION ordains that the President of the Indian Union should be the first to unveil the newly elected government’s priorities and policy thrusts. This time though that honour has gone to the Prime Minister who outlined the government’s tasks and thoughts in his address to the nation a few days earlier. As a result, the President’s Address has become take-two on the earlier one. There are big differences though, apart from listing, in a sanitised form, all the sectors, sub-sectors and mini sectors where there will be urgent intervention. In three separate paragraphs, the Address commits the government to protect the rights and interests of the minorities. This is highly significant in view of the high decibel verbal war the saffron brigade is waging prior to the Pope’s visit and also the stern demand by the southern and eastern allies to insert a firm assurance in the Address. Two, there is a dream-like plan to transform the dreary rural areas into liveable places with new houses, drinking water, schools, health centres and, well, jobs. Any road map? Yes, by splitting ministries and asking new secretaries to bring all this off. There is no reference to the same set of schemes in the last budget nor any mention of progress, if any. This omission makes it difficult to take the latest repetition seriously. These apart, the coming winter session and next year will see much sustained work on financial sector reforms, stepped-up privatisation, tax reforms, control on expenditure, and the whole works. Strangely, the forthcoming WTO conference in Seattle, the USA, is not a priority item and only now a committee has come into existence while other countries have put together their package and lined up allies. It is essential to point out that newspapers have been full of the economic agenda in the Address, which took about 25 of the 40 minutes to read.

As a result, the political and diplomatic parts suffered a diminution of importance. Coalition politics is welcome and here to stay but its potential for instability is ignored. Village-level democracy gets a deep bow but its anaemic form at the hands of its beneficiaries, the rural folks, is glossed over. The government will mount strict vigil to maintain social peace, although the terrorist depredation in Jammu and Kashmir is attributed to Pakistani conspiracy. The new-look diplomacy gets enthusiastic exposure but the assertion that it is a product of national consensus over the past decades hangs incongruously. In this regard, the Address names most countries with which India is striving for stronger ties. The present no-confidence vote procedure will go and its place will be taken up by the German model, requiring the opposition to first produce a waiting Prime Minister before ejecting the one in office. This idea filled the air immediately after the defeat of the previous government and the consensus then was that it was an emergency measure to handle a particular emergency. The government apparently thinks that it is an ever-present danger and a permanent cure needs to be built into the Constitution. That is the rub. The ruling coalition does not have the necessary two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha and not even a simple majority in the other chamber. Which means that the proposal has to remain a proposal. But then hopes, even unrealistic ones, have a central place in Indian politics. Savour this: with consensus and cooperation, the Address gushingly adds, the newly elected members can fulfil all the challenging and rewarding tasks! It is optimism of the most unalloyed variety.

CWC's stocktaking

DESPITE the omission of a few expected matters of socio-political concern and almost deliberate avoidance of an inner debate, the Congress Working Committee has met fruitfully for two days. The purpose of the conclave was "introspection" which necessitated a frank stocktaking of the causes of the worst-ever defeat of the party in general elections. There was no churning or "manthan" needed. The causes were well known: intra-party feud, divided loyalty, the absence of cadre and commitment, the non-projection of the prime ministerial candidate in the event of the Congress emerging as the party with a clear majority.... There were other elements of comparable importance like the misjudgement of the situation in Haryana where the former Chief Minister's edifice was sustained with oxygen and then allowed to lose its life. Tautology has been used with a boring effect in closed-door meetings. Evident reasons have been reprojected by crest-fallen leaders from various states. Mea culpa has been the essentially expiatory phrase at the confessional. The party president has accepted a larger share of the responsibility for the rout than her handpicked supervisors and observers have done. Mrs Sonia Gandhi has not been vilified; Mr Pranab Mukherjee and persons like him too have been treated politely. But no one has been spared! This is a healthy sign. The Congress has — after every shattering electoral experience — tried to be an attributive phoenix but a phoenix too frequent does not leave even a mythical impact.

As important functionaries have started returning to their states, the A.K. Antony Committee has been projected as the organisational diagnostician. The Congress has been suffering for long from inner contradictions. Presidents like Mr P.V. Narasimha Rao and Mr Sitaram Kesri have not been stoics— like Seneca; they have been self-sparing if not self-preserving. Mrs Sonia Gandhi has come out of her shell and she must assert her harmonising, rather than chastising, role now as the party supremo and the Leader of the Opposition. Bofors is not a new issue to her and its trans-legal and political aspects should be taken care of by her advisers. She does well to practise consciously her right to silence as a part of her right to speech. She has to recognise the synthetic grass (roots) cunningly shown to her in the potential areas of success for her party. Coteries have destroyed her predecessors — including Indira Gandhi. She has to appear firm and determined, relegate personal shocks to the limbo and rise as a leader in the Lok Sabha in spite of her linguistic handicap. She should stop the unending process of settling scores among her partymen. The CWC could have shunned the seven types — or more — of ambiguity on issues like the incendiary reservation extension plans for various groups at home, and the nature of relations with Pakistan, China and the USA abroad. Looking beyond electoral failures, the party can well become an instrument of social, economic and political change. The organisational elections are round the corner and so is the Assembly poll. Real introspection is needed.

Mamata’s wrong priorities

MS MAMTA Banerjee has got the ministry she had set her heart on. She is not hiding her glee over having become the Railway Minister of India. She has also not wasted much time in putting her agenda on the fast track. It is a different matter that what she wants the Indian Railways to become may not match with what it ought to be as the world’s largest rail network. Henceforth most important trains from any part of the country may seem headed in the direction of Calcutta. The Indian Railways have a long history of ending up in the backward of the Railway Minister’s constituency. When Mr Kamlapati Tripathi was given the important portoflio by Indira Gandhi, he made sure that Varanasi became the focal point of any development associated with the Indian Railways. In Mr Madhavrao Scindia’s “regime” a special Shatabdi was introduced to connect Gwalior with Delhi. By a strange coincidence during the ill-starred United Front rule and the 13-month government of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led combine Bihar became the centre of the Indian Railways universe because the rail portfolio was in the hands of Mr Ram Vilas Paswan and Mr Nitish Kumar in that order. It is a different story that it was during their terms in the Railway Ministry that the rate of fatal accidents suddenly shot up. And it was much later [as caretaker Minister] that Mr Nitish Kumar followed the example of Lal Bahadur Shastri and resigned following yet another rail disaster.

Ms Mamata Banerjee is a bundle of boundless political energy which, if put to good use, can transform the current negative image of the railways. However, the steps she has unfolded so far indicate that she is more keen to follow in the footsteps of Mr Ghani Khan Choudhary who, as Railway Minister, transformed the face of his Lok Sabha constituency, Malda. Already just about every senior member of the Railway Board has made a trip to Calcutta to examine the feasibility of projects which the new Railway Minister wants them to implement. The snags in the running of the Metro would soon be removed and if Didi is allowed to have her way there would be a resumption of the rail link, snapped after Partition, between Calcutta and Dhaka. She has evidently not had the time to study the reasons for the financial ill-health of the biggest public sector employer in the world. Her decision not to renew the discretionary quota passes issued by her predecessors to all and sundry may save the network some money. But the Indian Railways need a heavy infusion of funds for technology upgradation and expansion of the network for meeting the needs of the ever growing volume of passengers. Unfortunately, improving passenger comfort and safety too have not received for a long time the attention they deserve. Is Ms Banerjee interested in making the Indian Railways the best and the safest network in the world? As of today she gives the impression of using the network for taking her to Writers’ Building in Calcutta where she would disembark and let it continue its directionless journey to nowhere.

STRESS ON TRIBAL WELFARE
Implications of creating new ministry
by S. Sahay

THE creation of a new Ministry of Tribal Affairs at the Centre and bestowing on its minister Cabinet status is undoubtedly guided by the BJP’s political interest in consolidating its hold on the tribal belt, particularly in Bihar, but it has wider implications too. It is in consonance with the Constitution-makers’ goal of uplifting the tribals to the level of the rest of the country without, of course, doing violence to their own traditions and way of life.

Consider the lengths to which the Constitution has gone in ameliorating and safeguarding the lot of the tribals. There is a whole chapter (X) that deals with scheduled and tribal areas. In terms of Article 244, the provisions of the fifth Schedule apply to the administration of the Scheduled Area and Scheduled Tribes in states other than Assam, Meghalaya and Mizoram (to which the provisions of the Sixth Schedule apply).

The provisions contained in the Fifth Schedule give the Governor of a state very wide powers. Each state having Scheduled Areas has to have a Tribal Advisory Council. Even those not having a Schedule Area but the Scheduled Tribes can have such a Council if the President so directs.

In protecting the interests of the Scheduled Tribes the Governor is not bound to act on the advice of his Council of Ministers — all he needs to do is to consult the Tribal Advisory Council and to have the approval of the President.

The Governor can not only modify any parliamentary or state law in relation to the Schedule Areas but also suspend their use. He can even ignore judicial decisions if he has the requisite advice of the Advisory Council and endorsement by the President. He is required to report annually to the President on tribal affairs or as many times as the President wishes.

The Sixth Schedule lays down in great deal how the administration of the tribal areas in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram is to be conducted. In these states too the Governor has to act on his own and not be guided by the advice of the Council of Ministers.

These provisions apart, the Constitution-makers took care to provide for reservations for the Scheduled Tribes for government jobs and seats in Parliament and the State legislatures for a limited period of 10 years initially, which keeps on being extended through an amendment of the constitution for an unlimited period.

In fact, the Constitution-makers have gone one step further. They have provided that “in the states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa there shall be a Minister of Tribal Welfare who may, in addition, be in charge of the welfare of the Scheduled Castes and backward classes or any other work.

The new Minister of Tribal Affairs, Mr Juel Oram, is not quite correct in stating to a newspaper that in the 52 years since Independence the country could not create even a separate ministry for tribes, as envisaged under Article 164 of the Constitution. As shown above, the constitutional compulsion under Article 164 (which deals with the appointment of the Chief Minister and other ministers) is not applicable to the Centre.

However, it must be conceded that, considering the thrust of Constitution, as a whole, the creation of a Tribal Ministry at the Centre is the fulfilment of a crying need.

The reasons are that thus far the problem of the tribes has been dealt with by the Home Ministry, which has singularly failed to appreciate the nuances as well as urges and aspirations of the tribal society. The result is unrest in varying degrees in the states where the tribals have a presence.

It is recognised now that the security problem in the North-East is worse than in Jammu and Kashmir. The Centre has had to concede the demand for Jharkhand (Vananchal), Uttaranchal and Chhattisgarh. Only the necessary Bills have to be introduced and passed.

The new tribal ministry can look after the legitimate political and social aspirations of the tribals while the Ministry of Home Affairs can continue to deal with the problem of insurgency in close cooperation with the Defence Ministry and the state governments.

The moment of truth for the Vajpayee Ministry will arise when it tries to push through the Bills on Vananchal, Uttaranchal and Chhattisgarh. The rest of Bihar is simply not reconciled to the creation of Vananchal, call it by any name. And in UP, the BJP is reduced to a shadow of itself.

Some middle class eye-brows have been raised by the appointment of a comparative nobody as the Tribal Minister and giving him Cabinet status. Mr Juel Oram may not be very familiar with the Constitution and the law but he has had experience in the school of life. He has seen how half of the scholarship amounts meant for tribal students are gobbled up, how a dam built at a cost of Rs 20 lakh becomes unusable in three years.

He knows that while tomato may sell for Rs 40 a kilogram in Delhi, it is sold for 25 paise a kilogram in the rural areas because the villages do not have roads and other infrastructure.

Hence the new minister’s insistence on the Centre and the states doing their bit, without the intermediaries siphoning off the bulk of the allocation is quite in order. And if this requires party vigilance, so be it.

Mr Vajpayee must be complimented on selecting a tribal for this high post whose family is still poor, and is not a part of the “creamy layer”. One hopes his experience in life will enable him to deal with sensitive matters. One problem will be: how to deal with the Christian missionaries in the tribal belts? They are pretty well organised and have international backing. They do their propagation pretty shrewdly. They have, in fact, the constitutional right to do so. There is no doubt that they run excellent schools and colleges, some of the best in the country, and equally excellent hospitals. But it must be remembered that it is only the Christians who get subsidised treatment in these hospitals. For the poor sections of the Hindus, especially the tribals, it is an indirect inducement to convert to Christianity, apart from the more direct propaganda, which causes tension particularly in the tribal belts.

It is very sensitive issue and needs to be handled with great finesse and justice to all. Unfortunately, the Sangh Parivar’s response is utterly crude, for instance, in demanding an apology from the Pope.

Let me conclude by quoting Dr Abid Hussain, who in an entirely different context (while talking of the challenges and opportunities of the new millennium) forecast that the march of the world towards liberal democracy was inevitable. He observed “....Hopefully, in the twenty-first century, woman power would become a mighty force assuming the rightful share of leverage in the affairs of the State. That apart, democracy cannot be allowed to be majoritism where the rights of the minorities are bulldozed and their genuine grievances made to sound like a cry in wilderness... But at the same time, while minorities would be safe in the State, the state will also have to be saved from the strident and importune posturing of the minorities”.

The crime menace in S. Africa
by Hari Sharan Chhabra

A COUPLE of Indian media colleagues were mugged and robbed in broad daylight in Johannesburg on their recent visits to South Africa on professional duties. The car of the Indian High commissioner was hijacked in Pretoria when parked on a busy road, and the driver of the car pushed out; the car was never found. These are typical examples of the rampant crimes wave in South Africa in which not only foreigners are the victims, but the locals are also not spared. Murders and rapes have become routine affairs.

Crime, organised as well as unorganised, also takes the shape of armed gang robberies on cash in transit vans, gang warfare in residential areas, taxi operators violence, military style bank robberies, theft of mobile telephones, spree of burglaries, contract killings, trafficking in drugs and illegal weapons. Smuggling of diamonds and precious metals is an important part of organised crime. The crime wave thus makes life of the ordinary civilian unsafe, especially when the police patrolling and investigation is not upto the mark.

The American authorities have counted South Africa along with 17 other sub-Saharan countries in drug trafficking and drug production. The US state Department has also noted that South Africa is the biggest producer of marijuana and the largest consumer of mandrax.

Given South Africa’s geographical location and its accessibility via land, sea and air, it is a significant cocaine and heroin transhipment area. In many countries, Nigerian students are the major traffickers of these drugs.

With unemployment among the youth at 40 per cent, incidents of crime are expected. Unemployment is responsible for much of petty unorganised crime. The presence of a large number of illegal aliens is also responsible for cross-border crimes. With poor border and customs controls and large-scale corruption among police and customs officials, crime is easy to commit. At the same time intelligence on crime syndicates is hazy. Add to this the falsification of identity documents, travel documents and ownership documents of the stolen vehicles. It is amazing but true that a sophisticated banking and communications infrastructure helps crime syndicates.

According to Lala Camerer and Mark Shaw of the South African Institute for security studies, the South African Police Service (SAPS) reported in 1998 that 192 organised crime syndicates with 1,903 primary suspects are known to be operating in South Africa. It is strange that not a single prominent ring leader has been convicted.

The two experts opine that drug trafficking and organised crime “generate large financial profits, enabling criminal organisations to penetrate, contaminate or corrupt the structures of legitimate commercial and financial business as well as the structure of government”.

It is also a fact of life that a watch on international (crime) syndicates is a sophisticated operation for which the police and intelligence agencies are less than equipped. Furthermore, it is an accepted fact that international crime can only be fought internationally. The experienced law enforcement authorities in the world must, therefore, provide timely and useful support to South Africa.

Sex tourism is another form of crime in South Africa and the country is becoming a sex haven like Thailand. Cape town and other ports in South Africa are fast becoming sex tourist and child trafficking outlets. Unemployment, homelessness and decades of neglect make children in South Africa vulnerable to abuse and exploitation.

President Nelson Mandela in his State of the Nation Message to the joint sitting of Parliament on February 5 this year was frank enough to mention the areas of non-delivery he mentioned. He knows it well that rampant crime stands in the way of new investments coming to South Africa.

During the second democratic elections this June, it was often stated that the ruling outfit, the African National Congress (ANC), was soft on crime because most of those involved were Blacks. The ANC has been trying to debunk these charges.

After five years of laissez faire tolerance under Mandela, the South African government has adopted a new get-tough policy in an attempt to halt criminality and lawlessness in the country. The new President, Mr Thabo Mbeki, seems determined to create a new sense of order.

Illegal aliens who are responsible for the growing incidents of crime are being bundled out, hawkers are forcibly moved from the streets of Johannesburg, squatter camps are being demolished and illegal minibuses are being removed from Soweto and the outskirts of Pretoria to halt turf battles between rival taxi operators.

Mr Mbeki is well aware of the election promises he made. By taking new tough measures against crime he wants to convey to his people that the election slogan of “a nation at work” was no joke.

But he keeps on assuring his people that the heavy-handedness means more discipline and not an authoritarian rule. Human rights of the ordinary South Africans will be protected.

The opposition parties, however, are not impressed with the handling of the law and order situation by the new government. Mr Tony Leon, leader of the white-dominated opposition Democratic Party, has said: “I hope there is substance in the policy and not just public relations. The murders, for instance, carry on unabated. They (the ANC) have run down the machinery of the state to the lowest level ever....”.

In the office & outside it
by Iqbal Singh Ahuja

LIVING in an officers’ colony is a blessing. One gets good neighbours and has the advantage of sharing one’s views with the intelligentsia. I have always felt that an officer should come out of the office to have a first-hand information instead of getting it through notings in the file.

One fine morning while having tea at my neighbour’s house, I got an urgent call to drop my daughter to school as the driver had not reached. My neighbour offered his car and driver but I politely said: “Let us go together and enjoy the morning drive”.

As we were driving, we saw hundreds of cars speeding past. It was a surprise for him to see such a rush in early hours. “Who says Ludhiana is poor!”, he said. At the red light crossing, I stopped the car. Suddenly he shouted, “Oh!” I wanted to know what had happened. “Look at the stupid man, he did not bother about the red light”. Before we could talk further, about 10 scooters occupied the space in front of the car. “Oh! it is very difficult to control the public. Everybody is a leader in our city,” he said.

As we were driving a car sped past from the wrong side. My heart stopped for a while and I felt like abusing the fellow in Punjabi style. But my conscience did not allow it. The rear window of the car bore the logo. “Genius is inside”. I could see sweat on the face of my neighbour. “Oh! this is too dangerous”, he muttered. I wanted to tell him that “there is more to come” but I kept quiet.

The next red light seemed more orderly. Suddenly, a three-wheeler came just near our car and puffed out black smoke. Both of us coughed and cursed that fellow in our heart of hearts. I told my friend, “It will take at least a few days to clear our chest and if we go to a doctor we will have to shell out at least Rs 1000. This man does not realise that he may have saved a few rupees but he is making many people sick, who will be spending in thousands.”

“Where is the Pollution control Board?” he sighed!.

Our heads suddenly hit the roof of the car with a bang. “Such big potholes on the busy road”, he said. We laughed as we saw an orthopaedic doctor’s board on the side.

As we approached the school, there was traffic chaos. Four rows of cars were vying with each other to reach first. The horns were blaring. It was a jungle of cars. We could hardly hear each other. It was not possible to park the car anywhere. Many cars were parked in the middle of the road. It seemed as if there was a fight going on. The lean old driver whom I have been seeing for the past 20 years was very irritable. I looked at him. He asked, “Doctor Sahib, kee parhe likhe aidan gaddi park karde hun?” I felt a bit ashamed but consoled him.

He mused, “I have been here for the past 20 years. It has been an open space with no problems. First somebody put a wire and made things worse, then the railway authorities came and claimed the land. Now there is another railing coming up. Where will we park the cars?”

He seemed very sad. “They should have given this land to the school free or on lease for parking and play ground.”

Bache te sub de sanjhe hunde hun.” My friend was overwhelmed with this feeling of old man who was not educated but was concerned about the welfare of the children.

I took my friend to the principal’s office. The principal seemed helpless. “We don’t allow young people to drive cars and scooters. We have put our students on duty on the roadside. We are taking the help of the traffic police to guide the people,” she informed. She further quoted Carl Rogon who said, “I know I can’t teach anyone anything. All I can do is to provide the environment in which one can learn.”

As we came out of the office, there was pindrop silence in the school. As I came out of the gate, I told my friend that this was the Lakshman Rekha between discipline and indiscipline.

We reached our house, and as I bade a goodbye I said jokingly, “Sahibji, office ke ander aur bahar bahut bara farak hai.”

Reform vote bank and fund bank

by P. Raman

“UNDER the guise of correcting the past wrongs, the Congress government actually surrendered to the IMF conditionalities. With a gun at its head it began to do what it does best — double talk.... The paradox is that the greater the liberalisation, the more demanding is the involvement of the government to protect national industry and employment ....” This is neither a Leftist platitude nor the outbursts of an irresponsible Mulayam Singh Yadav. This is how the BJP’s 1998 election manifesto under Atal Behari Vajpayee had warned against uncalibrated liberalisation and globalisation.

A still bigger paradox, if not double-talk, has been the haste with which the Vajpayee government is now pushing ahead with what is described as the ‘second generation’ of reform Narasimha Rao did it with ‘a gun at his head’ when he had supposedly found Yashwant Sinha had emptied the entire foreign exchange reserves. But whose gun is now forcing Vajpayee to do all unpleasant things the previous governments, including his own, avoided all these years? Why does he rush with all this unpopular decision so soon after the elections?

Several factors seem to have contributed to the sudden bout of reform fever. The most important is the ‘gun’ itself. It is as threatening as the one pointed at Rao and Manmohan Singh in 1991. The same helplessness was reflected in Vajpayee’s first broadcast to the nation in which he talked of certain ‘hard decisions’ ahead. Apparently, the assurance to enforce the ‘second generation’ of reform is part of the unwritten package deal being negotiated with the USA at different stages by Brijesh Mishra and Jaswant Singh. Developments in Pakistan, shift in US interests in the region following the end of the cold war, growth of Islamic fundamentalism (which the US itself had built up as a bulwark against the former Soviet Union) into a major world threat, the increasing US business prospects in India, willingness of the BJP rulers to unreservedly toe the globalisation agenda — all this has brought about a sea change in US attitude towards this country.

In fact, the US business lobby, as in the case of China, has played an important role in bringing about a more intimate relationship with India. As in the USA, the business lobby in India too has come to exert unshakable hold on the government policies. For the past three years, the ruling BJP, and not the Congress, has been the blue-eyed boy of the Indian business with the bulk of its election funds going to the former’s kitty. Business apex bodies do not any more conceal their influence over the Vajpayee government. They successfully frustrated the suggestion to replace Yashwant Sinha as Finance Minister and even thwarted Vajpayee’s move to split various economic ministries to accommodate the large number of new ministers.

All this has facilitated a four-way relationship among the business lobbies of the two countries, their governments and between the governments. Now the US investors’ lobby openly sets forth its terms. Early next year, about 200 CEOs of prominent US business firms will hold a summit in Bombay to examine their role in investment. The AIG has a sizeable investment in the telecom sector in India. It has been the curt warning by American International Group vice-chairman Frank Wisner, now on a visit to India, that has forced Vajpayee to rush with the new reform bills. He made it clear that opening of the insurance sector and prompt clearing of the telecom package are the two immediate demands of the MNCs. Thus the reform bills are sought to be traded for the offers of foreign investment.

The other factor that has prompted Vajpayee to rush with globalisation is the widely held fad that the people at large would endorse all that would be done in the name of reform. The globalisation enthusiasts have interpreted Chandrababu Naidu’s resounding success in the recent general election as people’s rejection of populist promise of the Congress and acceptance of the reform. It is now suggested that the BJP should follow the Naidu path by ruthlessly pushing the globalisation programmes without any fear of people’s ire. Rather than temporary subsidies, the people are more interested in improved infrastructure facilities even if it costs more.

Naidu’s success was due to several factors. His fairly efficient administration, his organisational capabilities and hold over his party colleagues and the lack of any serious alternative programmes from the opposition Congress are factors which cannot be ignored. An excellent mobiliser, Naidu knew his people. He himself had taken timely measures to remove the impression that he was the CEO of the rich and did not have any thing for the poor. For this purpose, he had launched a series of programmes for the common man with popular participation. Thus it was not a vote for the reform alone. More than this, the very arithmetic of the TDP-BJP votes itself seems to have made the difference.

A shrewd politician, Vajpayee also seems to think this is the best time to undertake all unpleasant programmes. This will provide enough time for the people to forget the rigours of the harsh measures. Resistance to privatisation and globalisation depends on how each measure directly affected the people. This has been the experience the world over. People welcome new foreign investments which do not directly disturb the existing arrangements. But not any proposal that will badly maul the workers. There was not much opposition to the setting up of cellular phone facilities even if they were on highly unacceptable terms. But touch the MTNL, you will have violent reaction.

Vajpayee’s promise of ‘hard decision’ has already caused consternation both in his party ranks and the Opposition. Free market fundamentalism — a term used by none other than Rahul Bajaj of the CII to snipe at excessive globalisation — is still viewed with fears by RSS and BMS devouts. The Swadeshi Jagran Manch has been subjugated by the RSS bosses only to perpetuate the BJP in power. When rumblings among the trade unions turn louder the BMS and others will also be forced to join the protests. One has to wait to see how the RSS leadership already too weak to assert itself against the more powerful political wing, will respond to the situation.

Understandably, so far only the Left and its mass organisations, specially the trade unions, have come out in the open against the proposed new measures. Parties led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav are certain to use them as a political lever against the ruling BJP. Within the NDA, anything that will affect the urban labour will have reverberations in Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress. For political survival, her party will have to compete with the Left unions of Calcutta. Earlier, she had forced the BJP to dump many of its programmes, including the Bangladeshi bashing in Maharashtra. Similar is the case with other NDA parties with substantial trade union wings.

The Congress finds itself in a bigger dilemma with different lobbies pulling it to different directions. Its strong pro-reform group includes rootless but senior leaders like Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee. They are supported by assorted lobbyists who work as a link between business interests and the party hierarchy. Though without any organisational background, some of them have even been able to find positions in party organisation. These functionaries are actively moving within the Congress to canvass support for Vajpayee’s ‘hard decision’. On the other, those who go by political instincts and electoral politics would prefer to take advantage of the possible adverse public reaction to the government decisions.

They argue that Vajpayee himself had adopted a negative attitude to reform when he was in the Opposition.

Contrary to what the business writers claim, even official world institutions have questioned several reform myths so assiduously cultivated over the years. The fate of Asian Tigers — a role model for others — made the reform propagandists to dump the full convertibility mantra. UNCTAD had recently warned of the dangers for the countries in “engaging in a financial incentive-competition race” as they could face a situation in which higher levels of subsidy packages — not for farmers or the poor but the MNCs — produce diminishing returns. The Cardif Business School has disclaimed the assumption that foreign investment invariably improves domestic productivity.

Also, excessive competition leaves domestic companies with unutilised capacity and thereby cutting into their productivity. It was found that unchecked FDI can crowd out domestic investment. In India, since the opening up the TNCs have not contributed much to the exports. Our own automobile industry fiercely objects to the imports of second-hand cars as it would lead to large-scale closures. Hitting out at the unbridled craze for globalisation, Rahul Bajaj recently challenged: “Name three companies in Korea or Japan’s top 10 which are foreign owned. Do you think the USA will allow IBM or Microsoft to be taken over by foreigners?” He cites various cases to establish that the world trade is not really free.

Now, apart from the controversial bills like, the IRA, the Vajpayee government has already invited hackles from different sections for its moves on diesel prices, removal of sugar from the PDS, reducing the PDS coverage to a small section and raising the PDS prices and removing the fertiliser subsidy altogether. Diesel price hike has already led to the truckers’ strike. Suddenly, road transport has become costly. It will have a chain reaction on the prices of a variety of products. NDA chief ministers of Haryana and Punjab have demanded withdrawal of the hike. Many chief ministers are already in a fix over the pressures to raise the power tariff to the farmers. In the name of WTO, even foreign apples and spices have begun flooding our mandis with deadly effect on the growers. In this post-election context, vote bank may not be an immediate problem. But the conflict of interests between the vote bank and political fund bank will be felt if the disgruntlement develops into protests.

75 YEARS AGO

October 26, 1924
Notice served on jatha members

AN Akali jatha of about 60 men arrived, at Lahore by train at 1 p.m. yesterday. Dr Paras Ram, Secretary, Provincial Congress Committee, accompanied it. The whole party was met at the railway station as it alighted from the train by Sardar Gurdial Singh, Assistant Administrator, Sardars Indar Singh and Zora Singh, Magistrates, and the Superintendent of Police with a force of police as mentioned before.

The Assistant Administrator asked the Jathedar the object of their visit to the place to which he replied that the jatha had come to perform Akhand Path.

The Assistant Administrator having stated the conditions, the Jathedar, without listening to him, refused to give any undertaking. The conditions were read out and the jatha was arrested and removed to a camp.