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E D I T O R I A L P A G E |
![]() Wednesday, June 2, 1999 |
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It
is ISI time in TN THE
RUSSIAN CAULDRON |
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Time for a lasting solution Unwrinkled
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Fighting plague in Lahore |
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It is ISI time in TN SUNDAY and Monday have been lucky for the Tamil Nadu police. It stumbled on explosive material at such sensitive cities as Coimbatore, Chennai and Thiruchirappally early in the morning. There were several strange features about the discovery, which in itself is not unusual in that state. One, the explosives were neatly packed with detonators, fuse wires and timing devices. Whoever planted them took great care to ensure that policemen noticed them and got them defused. In all probability the police also received a tip-off in each case. Two, the bags also contained literature and a letter from the banned Islamic fundamentalist organisation, Al Umma, demanding the release of about a dozen or so members doing a long prison term. For ready reference, there were photographs of the convicts and a blunt threat that their further incarceration would cost some VIPs their life. Needless to say, the police promptly worked itself up to a high energy mode and shared with the Press more than what they knew. One intrepid constable revealed how the ticking sound of the quartz timer attracted his attention. A quartz clock ticking away noisily? Another policeman, this time an inspector, pointed to a hole in the compound wall of a boys hostel and declared that subversives had caused it by using explosives. A closer examination actually revealed a big hole in the police version. Bricks from the wall have fallen on both sides and a nearby window has partly collapsed as would any old structure. The oddest thing was the nature of the sites chosen to keep the explosives. In each case it was a busy police station, administrative office or residential block and the time was early in the morning when most people would be up and about. Even if the men with criminal intent were decidedly police-friendly, they would not have taken the slightest risk of being caught and sent to a long prison term. Yet this is what their action proclaims! Opposition parties have
already started murmuring their amazement at the
simultaneous seizure of five bags of explosives and the
police claims. Since February last year when a series of
bomb blasts in Coimbatore swung the votes in favour of
the AIADMK-BJP alliance, a pattern has emerged. The
police periodically seize bomb-making material, both in
big and small quantities, and round up a few suspects. On
their part, politicians fling accusations and demand the
dismissal of the state government. Now that another
mid-term election is round the corner, this
bomb-detection drive has picked up momentum. No, the DMK
is not communal at all; since the fifties, the Muslims
have voted solidly for the party attracted by its
rationalist (anti-idol worshipping) thrust. But there are
other forces who will benefit by whipping up an
anti-Pakistan and anti-ISI frenzy and linking Al Umma
with it. Sure enough, even a sober politician like Chief
Minister Karunanidhi has gone on record seeing an ISI
hand in a few gelatine sticks, chemicals normally used in
mining operations and timers. This loud ISI denunciation
just before an election may actually have nothing to do
with the ISI and everything to do with the election.
Fighting for votes threatens to enter an explosive phase. |
Dangerous precedent THE domestic political fallout of the Army action in Kargil must have made Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee realise that important ministerial positions should never be distributed recklessly merely to keep the coalition going. Even when the situation on the border with Pakistan was not as alarming as it is today Defence Minister George Fernandes was usually only a hand shaking distance away from all manner of controversies. More recently he made the entire country look at him with bafflement when he absolved Mr Nawaz Sharif and the ISI of having any role in the Pakistan army's acts of encouraging cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir by sending in trained and armed infiltrators. Now he has added another chapter to his book of controversies by arranging a special briefing on the Kargil situation by senior defence personnel for the Bharatiya Janata Party national executive. Was the briefing organised to mollify the BJP and other members of the Sangh Parivar who were understandably annoyed with him for having given a clean chit to Mr Nawaz Sharif and the ISI? It is amazing that a
leader of Mr Fernandes' standing does not seem to know
his duties and responsibilities as Defence Minister.
Reports on the special briefing for the BJP national
executive suggest that Mr Fernandes used his ministerial
muscle for 'persuading' two senior officers,Lt Gen N.C.
Vij, Director General of Military Operations,and Air
Marshal S.K. Malik, Assistant Additional Chief of Air
Staff, 'to do the needful'.The Opposition parties have
rightly expressed concern over the extraordinary decision
to arrange an inter-action between the military top brass
and the BJP national executive.The Opposition parties may
find wide support to their interpretation that the BJP
has set 'harmful' precedents by getting serving officers
to brief its national executive.The action was indeed
'inappropriate' since it has the potential to comprise
the 'political neutrality' of the armed services.Instead
of expressing regret for the unprecedented decision the
BJP leadership has had the audacity to suggest that
'other political parties were free to make a request to
the Defence Minister for a similar meeting'. They are
evidently not aware that two wrongs do not make a right. |
THE RUSSIAN CAULDRON MR Yevgeny Primakov is the third Prime Minister whom President Boris Yeltsin has sacked in the last 14 months. He was fired on May 12. The other two Victor Chernomyrdin and Mr Sergei Kiriyenko were ousted on March 23 and August 23 last year. The dismissal of Mr Chernomyrdin was generally accepted as a normal step because he had worked as Prime Minister for about five years a pretty long period but had failed to show any substantial results. True, he was able to control inflation and stabilise rouble and avoid any serious financial crisis in the last two years of his term but only to create more serious problems in the near future. He made pyramids of government bonds and securities which ultimately collapsed, leading to the worst possible financial crisis of August 17 last year, which resulted in the downfall of the young, energetic and intelligent economic reformer and democrat, Mr Kiriyenko. Russia has not been able to recover from this crisis so far. Mr Yevgeny Primakov was persuaded to become Prime Minister in a very odd and difficult economic-financial , political and social situation. He took charge on September 11 last year and had till then proved his ability as the chief of the Russian federal security service and head of the Russian Foreign Ministry. At the time of his becoming Prime Minister he was considered a successful Foreign Minister and had fundamentally changed his predecessor Andrey Kozyrevs policy of ignoring the East and heavily depending on or too much tilting towards the West. He balanced this policy and gave due importance to Russias relations with China, India and Arab countries. He emphasised the role of the Russia-China-India triangle in world affairs. Calm, sober, soft spoken, scholarly and honest, Mr Primakov was fully aware and conscious of the hard tasks and challenges he had to face as Prime Minister. He moved slowly and cautiously in political, economic-financial and social fields. Realising the fact that to function successfully, he needed the backing of all political parties and factions, he formed a coalition government representing different political views. According to some analysts, such a government was formed for the first time in Russian history. Thus he was able to forge political unity, though a fragile one, but still it could enable him to function without much hindrance in his day-to-day work. He established a normal and cooperative relationship with the Duma the Lower House of Parliament. In the economic and financial field, he kept strict control on the monetary policy. Though he paid the salary and pension arrears by printing money, he succeeded in saving the country from hyper inflation which was threatening to disrupt the system after the August financial crisis of last year. His government not only kept inflation in control but also managed to pay off some of Russias foreign debts. His government was able to negotiate successfully loans from the IMF and the World Bank which could further help in economic and financial stability. Production had also started to show some recovery. In the social field , he removed those tensions which were caused by the non-payment of salaries and pensions in time and regularly. Mr Primakov did not bow to the pressures of indexing salaries and pensions which though he had sympathy for the miserable lot of the poor could lead to inflation by increasing the money supply considerably. His government started a quiet but effective campaign against corruption at different levels, especially at higher levels. In the eight months of his premiership, Mr Primakov achieved tangible results, and his popularity increased day by day. Some leading Russian politicians like Mr Yury Luzhkov described him as the best Prime Minister, at least in the last 10 years or so. In the public opinion polls he had the highest rating in the last few months, leaving behind Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov , Luzhkov and others. But in spite of Mr Primakovs success, Mr Yeltsin sacked him, though he admitted in his television address to the nation that Yevgeny Maksimovitch Primakov arrived at a very difficult time, a period of severe crisis in the country. He succeeded in halting the crisis in the economic and social spheres. The government has completely fulfilled the tactical task, but in economics we are at the same place as before. Thus according to Mr Yeltsin, a cautious Primakov did not do enough in the economic field from the fundamental and structural point of view and, that is why, he removed him. On the very face of it, Mr Yeltsins reasoning does not sound convincing. In a short period of eight months structural and fundamental changes were not possible in an economy deeply stuck in crisis. Why did Mr Yeltsin sack Mr Primakov? Most of the political analysts, observers, Russian media people and the public at large agree that Mr Primakovs success and popularity became the main cause of his downfall. Mr Yeltsin cannot tolerate anyone eclipsing him. This view can be substantiated by quotations from a number of leading daily and weekly newspapers which are highly critical of Mr Yeltsins action. But in overview, it would be sufficient to quote a few words of Mr Mikhail Gorbachov, the first and last President of the former Soviet Union . In a popular weekly, Novaya Gazeta (New Newspaper), he writes, only 2 to 5 per cent Russians have faith in Yeltsin, whereas 63 per cent trust Primakov We all know that President Yeltsin cant tolerate it. According to Mr Gorbachov , not only Mr Yeltsins jealousy but also his fear of his own and his familys future instigated him to act against Mr Primakov. He writes, Primakov did not take good care of Presidents future. How can Yeltsin rely on such a person for his peaceful future as a pensioner. Thus concludes Mr Gorbachov that Mr Yeltsins jealousy and fear of his safe future are the two main causes of Mr Primakovs downfall. But to these two a few more causes can be added. Mr Yeltsin and the people surrounding him did not believe in Mr Primakovs often repeated statement that he has no political ambitions, and suspected that he is preparing his own base and strengthening his position quietly and slowly. Mr Primakovs government was trying to dig deep in corruption at the Kremlin level and people of his inner circle, especially like tycoon Berezovsky, were afraid of the consequences. They wanted Mr Primakovs ouster and prompted Mr Yeltsin to do so. It is also said that Mr Primakov did not do much to put a brake on the impeachment process against Mr Yeltsin. He could have done so by influencing the Communists with whom he had fairly good, even warm relations and who were the main initiators and ardent advocates of the impeachment move against Mr Yeltsin. In short, all the above and some other reasons which in Mr Yeltsins view were the weak points of Mr Primakov and his government led to his shifting from the top. As pointed out earlier, most of the analysts and common Russians disapprove of Mr Yeltsins action and are sympathetically inclined towards Mr Primakov. Some politicians, including Mr Luzhkov, are keen that Mr Primakov agree to join hands with them for the coming parliamentary and presidential elections, but Mr Primakov is keeping his options open for the present and not reacting to such offers. After sacking Mr Primakov, President Yeltsin nominated Mr Sergei Stepashin as Acting Prime Minister. Mr Stepashin was interior Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister in Mr Primakovs Cabinet. Born in a Russian naval officers family, he has Doctor of Law and Doctor of History degrees. He has worked for about two decades in the Soviet or Russian security services. He has also been the Director of the federal security service old KGB and Justice Minister before becoming the Interior Minister. Why did Mr Yeltsin nominate Mr Stepashin? Most of the political thinkers opine that Mr Yeltsin was counting on the support of security forces, and wanted a loyal and faithful general to head the government. Mr Stepashin is considered not only a loyal leader but also a defender of Mr Yeltsin. At the time of Mr Stepashins nomination, the sword of impeachment was hanging over Mr Yeltsins head. If he had been impeached, many unforeseeable situations could arise and a faithful general could be of great help. In certain circles this view was also expressed that Mr Yeltsin, if impeached, could on some pretext declare an emergency, dissolve the Lower House of Parliament and rule the country with decrees to be carried out by Mr Stepashin as his nominee. But, thanks God, nothing of the sort happened and all such hypotheses remained speculations. The failure of the Duma to impeach Mr Yeltsin completely changed the political scenario. It had become obvious that the Duma will approve of Mr Stepashins nomination in the very first voting. The same happened on May 19. Mr Sergei Stepashin is young and has good experience of administration in different capacities. He is generally considered honest and efficient. While speaking in the State Duma after his approval, he indicated his intention to make fundamental and structural changes in the economy. But his lack of knowledge and experience in the economic field and only a few months remaining before the parliamentary elections in December, cast doubts at his ability to do so. Fears are also expressed that he might become another Pinochet, but he said in the lighter vein that he was Stepashin and not Pinochet. Time will tell what he is in reality. (The author,
based in Moscow for a long time, specialises in Russian
affairs.) |
A
Himalayan eco-disaster THE recent earthquake in Chamoli in the Garhwal region of UP, leading to more than 100 deaths and widespread devastation, is being viewed as a fallout of the gross abuse of the eco-system of the seismically active Himalayan ranges. The picturesque Garhwal region had been going through a spell of earth tremors and forest fires. After the massive earthquake of March 29, the region felt more than 300 big and small tremors. The widespread deforestation in the Himalayan region is also being blamed for an ever-increasing incidence of landslips and landslides all along this geologically young mountain range. Environmentalists say an increasing human interference in the domain of nature has magnified the potential of danger to property and life in this hilly part of the country. Fast drying up of aquifers in this hilly part of India has resulted in womenfolk walking an increasingly longer distance to fetch potable water. Similarly, with the forest cover receding at an alarming pace, women are forced into walking a distance of upto 6 km to collect fuelwood. Thus, the eco-plunder of the Himalayas has placed an intolerable burden on women, who, in the absence of the menfolk working in plains, are required to shoulder the burden of managing the families. Many of these women, unable to bear the intolerable burden life has placed on them, have simply committed suicide. Like the Garhwal region, the Kumaon Himalayas too are witnessing major changes in response to a growing human pressure on the finite natural resources. Here there has been a massive decline in the oak forest cover due to the exploitation and clearance for terrace cultivation. Further unchecked livestock grazing, indiscriminate wood cutting, lopping and collection of minor forest products have all added to the eco-degradation of the region. A study by the World Wide Fund for Nature India and Wildlife Society of India (WSI) says that the major threat to Kumaon's biodiversity includes cutting of trees, extraction of medicinal plants, fire hazards and poaching of wild animals. The worst-affected parts are said to be villages around glaciers or areas close to the plains. Poaching of musk deer, Himalayan black bear and snow leopard has been found to be rampant around glaciers. The ongoing controversy surrounding the Tehri dam that seeks to impound the water of the river Bhagirathi in the Himalayan heights has brought into sharp focus the dangers of locating dams in a seismically active region. The impact of impounded water on accelerating earthquake is quite well established. In this context, the noted eco-activist and researcher, Dr Vandana Shiva, says: "An independent scientific commission needs to be urgently set up by citizens to understand the interaction between man-made and natural processes in the Garhwal earthquake, so that the occurrences and impact of such disasters can be minimised." Despite widespread concern about the dangerous fallout of deforestation, timber mafia continues to be quite active in both the Garhwal and Kumaon regions. "Trees are being cut in large numbers by unscrupulous businessmen everyday. They have a lot of money and employ goons to do work. So we sold off our land. There are many like us and we do not know what our sons will do", said a villager in the interior hamlet of the Kumaon region. The majestic, towering deodar and chir trees that once covered the entire stretch of Garhwal, providing a simmering green look, are rapidly disappearing. With deforestation spreading, agricultural fields are losing their fertility, forcing cultivators to move to nearby urban areas in search of livelihood. The so-called Himalayan action plan aims at restoring the eco-stability of the Himalayas, to which several institutions, including Garhwal University and G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, have contributed. The most conspicuous feature of this action plan is the realisation that all the strategies tried out so far for afforestation and ecological restoration has never focused on the needs of the people inhabiting the Himalayan region. Thus, the thrust of the plan is on the regeneration of forest resources to provide fuel , fodder and small timber requirements of the natives. But the Himalayas
continue to bleed under the impact of developmental
projects. And reversing this trend to restore the
eco-health of this magnificent mountain range would call
for Himalayan efforts. INFA |
Security
and strategy THE nature of the violent conflagration on the high mountain tops of the Kargil sector, and the activisation of the entire LoC master-minded by those across the border, calls for an immediate in-depth analysis of the strategic and geo-political situation prevailing on our northern borders, and what needs to be now done to quickly resolve a dangerous situation which otherwise has all the potential for further deterioration. My aim here is not to dwell at any length on what has already happened on the military front, or to trace out any aberrations noticed in the acquisition of intelligence, or the somewhat delayed Indian response to the uncalled-for intrusions and infiltration. With the ground and aerial bombardments in progress, and dogged attacks by our troops to rid the Kargil, Dras and Batalik valleys of the battle-hardened and well-equipped intruders now almost a daily occurrence, we must turn hereafter to some of the other macro-level issues that deserve our immediate attention. The situation on the ground is sometimes very different to what is often projected on TV or even in some of our print media, by some not very well experienced defence analysts and war correspondents, or many greenhorns in journalism now suddenly assigned to the active front. The first and foremost need is a psychological de-escalation of the ongoing operations to the level of a local border clash in a particular sector, and not to term it as an all-out conflict between India or Pakistan, which is not the case at this stage. This task can be accomplished by an enlightened media and of course, by our diplomats and, other official functionaries in India and abroad. The armed forces will take whatever actions are deemed operationally necessary in Kargil, but there is a definite need to defuse the situation and diminish the overreaction at many levels, including the economic sector which has already witnessed a steep downward trend in the share markets. Secondly, having done this, it must be our endeavour that the Kargil issue is under no circumstances made a subject for legislation by external powers, including the UN, or agencies like the UNIMOGIP military observer group in the valley. Any interference from that quarter could adversely affect the ongoing military operations and divert the attention of our troops from the ground fighting. Thus, having first prepared a level playing field for the armed forces, it would then he our first priority to ensure, and doubly ensure, that under no circumstances does our line of communications fall into the aggressors hands and, in fact, is not even remotely tampered or interfered with, by hostile action, because of ambushes or sabotage on the ground, or hostile artillery bombardment. In this connection a parallel road network in the Dras, Suru, Shingo river valleys would greatly facilitate our troops and stores movement. The Manali-Leh road needs to be opened up immediately, so as to take on the convoy traffic, which has been restricted on the Zojila-Dras-Kargil road. The need to keep open the lines of communication is absolutely essential for the upkeep of the troops deployed in the Leh sector and beyond, and for the stocking of equipment, rations, POL and ammunitions. The other requirement is to evict at any cost, any intrusions or infiltration, by employing the queen of the battle the infantry along the ridgelines in any numbers as is deemed necessary, and support this attack by heavy-to-intense artillery fire. As one had brought out on May 26 on Star News TV, air support though providing a softening up and a psychological edge to own troops, cannot be the final answer to winning small-size battles in the mountains, where target acquisition, observation, and after strike monitoring of damage inflicted, poses certain difficulties for planes flying at great speeds. The manoeuvrability of the aircraft, flying close to the LoC, imposes certain restrictions on close ground support role, which obviously is the prime role currently for our Air Force in Kargil. One saw in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion of 1979 and in Vietnam in the mid 60s that the mountains do somewhat restrict close support air operations. The next task that would now have to be ensured is, that having thrown out the intruders, the troops would hereafter have to possibly keep occupying certain crucial heights during the winter too, as is being affected in Siachen. The reoccupation of these heights by the other side just cannot be now accepted, though it is well understood that such measures would increase the logistic problems to some degree. Once the fighting dies down, and with the energisation of our diplomatic efforts, the entire efficacy, role or the requirement of having the UN observer group in the J&K valley would need to be reassessed. Had they been effective, the present conflagration may well have been restricted to a smaller scale. The other major point missed out by even those who call themselves defence experts is that the cease fire line (CFL) in the Kargil sector was delineated, demarcated, and very clearly established with reference to the factual position on the ground, in terms of the UN-sponsored Karachi agreement of July 29, 1949. After the 1971 war, both sides retained whatever they had captured, and thus the CFL became the LoC, which is the Line of Control we have today. In the Kargil sector there is no confusion whatsoever as to where on the ground the LoC runs, and Indian defence officials and diplomats must counter Pakistans designs to create any confusion on the positioning of this line and thus maintain that the intruders have not crossed the LoC and are on their own side. Pakistan by now should have seen India will not tolerate any infiltration or incursions into its territory, and should desist from assisting or abetting the opening up of new fronts along the LoC. India should quickly rid itself of the intruders, because a long drawn-out military stalemate in Kargil is not to its advantage. Critical heights would have to be held during the winter too, as we are doing in the glacier region. There is no other option. Neither is this the time for opening up new flashpoints as many defence analysts have suggested, so that the heat can be taken off the Kargil sector. It should also be of little concern to us as to who has masterminded this operation from across the border. After the LoC has been
restored it would be time I think, to sit
down and hammer out a lasting solution anchored on the
oft-defined Simla Agreement and Mr Vajpayees Lahore
bus diplomacy. Pakistan must even now pull back from its
misadventure and grasp Indias hand of reason and
peace. |
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