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Musharraf to be back home
His expectations and the reality in Pakistan
by Rana Banerji
ON March 1, former Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf (retd) announced in Dubai that he would return to Pakistan one week after the installation of a caretaker government to contest parliamentary elections under the banner of his political party, All-Pakistan Muslim League (APML), formed in June 2010. He had promised to return last year as well but deferred it at the last minute, ostensibly on the advice of his friends in the Army who feared for his life and safety.The present, the government at the Centre and the provincial governments, including the National and Provincial Assemblies, are expected to be dissolved by presidential proclamation around March 15, which would make Musharraf's promised return date coincide very nearly with Pakistan's National Day on March 23, a moment permitting a diversionary impact by appeal to patriotic fervour. Musharraf announced a four-point agenda — focusing on internal stability, regional peace, international acceptability and socio-economic development — and stressed that it was “now or never” for him to go back to “his beloved homeland”, to fight against many serious problems facing Pakistan, including religious terrorism, which was “eating us from inside”. In a message intended for his many detractors and political enemies, especially Nawaz Sharif, whose PML(N) has been given the edge in most recent opinion polls, he indicated that he would be seeking reconciliation on return. If Musharraf does live up to his promise this time, he will have to face up to arrest warrants issued in at least two specific cases by anti-terrorism courts in Sibi, Dera Bugti, accusing him of involvement in the murder of Nawab Akbar Bugti in August 2006 and in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case of December 2007. He also faces a summons from the one-man Commission of Enquiry on the Lal Masjid case set up recently under Justice Shahzado Sheikh of the Federal Shariah Court, where he or his legal counsel have so far refused to appear. Though not likely to be found personally culpable for actions claimed to have been undertaken pursuant to “public purpose” and “national securiy”, Musharraf has said he will have his lawyers ready to deal with these cases legally. He may even have calculated to seek some political mileage before the elections if he is temporarily incarcerated. Earlier, there were moves also to drag Musharraf into treason proceedings under Article 6 of the 1973 Constitution, both for violation of his oath as an Army officer indulging in politics under Article 244 of the Constitution and malafide promulgation of the November 3, 2007, emergency, followed by the dismissal of the Supreme Court bench headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Though the latter has no love lost for him, the absence of dissolved legislatures may preclude serious pursuit of this option at present. For the caretaker administration, which will be having its hands full with implementing the election agenda, the prospect of evolving appropriate state responses to contentious litigation arising from Musharraf's return will pose a needless headache. There will be additional responsibility to provide adequate security as Musharraf will face a serious enough threat from both Islamic radicals belonging to the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), who tried to assassinate him twice earlier in December 2003 as also from Baloch nationalists. The Bannu jail-break in April 2012 saw 150 Taliban militants taking security officials by complete surprise and releasing, among others, Adnan Rashid, one of the serving other ranks personnel held from the air force cell which was busted after the attacks on Musharraf. Meanwhile, Shahzain Bugti, grandson and legally anointed heir of the Bugti clan, has already announced a Rs 10 million “head money” award according to tribal customs to anybody who will kill him! If Musharraf is able to overcome all these hurdles before the elections and actually contest, his APML, comprising lightweight though moneyed lawyers like Saif Ali Khan and some retired Army loyalists like Maj-Gen Rashid Quereshi, would make a marginal impact only, possibly eating into votes of the two mainstream parties in the urban areas of Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad as also weakening the impact of Imran Khan's Tehrik-e-Insaaf (TI) as a viable “third option”. The Army may view the prospect of Musharraf's return with mixed feelings. On the one hand, Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani remains personally beholden to him for having selected him for the top job in November 2007 over the claims of an equally deserving three-star General, Tariq Majeed, who was later given the ceremonial sop of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. On the other, institutionally, the Army would not be too happy to see him humiliated or berated in courts beyond a point. Also, Musharraf would be looking to the Army to provide him fairly foolproof security cover. If something untoward is attempted or happens to him, seen to be emerging either from Islamist or Baloch nationalist quarters, this may not augur well for the Army's image in civil society for its inability to protect its own
former Chief. In terms of Musharraf's electoral prospects, the Army would surely have assessed carefully that his performance may not significantly alter political equations likely to lead to a “hung parliament” situation. If he does unexpectedly better, it could suit the Army to add another pro-establishment string to their bow, but this seems unlikely at present. In the ultimate analysis, Musharraf's decision to return may be conditioned by last minute assessments from the Army and the ISI on how the various factors outlined above are likely to pan out. Security may be cited as a reason if he defers his return again. Otherwise, electorally, it may well turn out to be a damp
squib. The writer is a former Special
Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India.
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Women, work and vows
by Ravia Gupta
THEY make me work, they make me slog, they make me learn, they make me relearn; together we both make our lives difficult. My students always find new challenges for me each day!It was yet another attempt to have a better understanding of the “You Live Only One Generation”. First I laughed, laughed out loudly, thinking it was too funny. Then I thought what to answer when they asked me, “Is getting married easier than going to work? Whose decision should it be? Whether or not a woman should work post-marriage? Who decides what career she must opt? Besides, why is it that husbands who encourage their wives to work or have a career in the first place, then turn back and complain when she starts enjoying what she does? Suddenly, the fun was over and soon as I started explaining them that getting married and staying home was much more difficult than going to work. Not that my marriage is too old or troubling me, but if you want to have a good marriage and a stable home, it's never easy, I told them, from the heart, as I offered them the home-made nutties prepared by my mother-in-law. Considering the pressures that one deals with these days, especially the ones that come from within, having a solid work life probably makes your relationships stronger and better, and even at home you respect the little time that you get and want to make the best of it with your loved ones. But to see marriage as an escape route from personal responsibility is like “seeing a three-ring-circus and thinking it'd be a great place to sleep for a while.” From a very young age, I was never comfortable asking anybody for favours, monetarily or otherwise, to foot my bills when out with friends, or even to buy my clothes, etc. I enjoyed the little fun that my pocket money savings used to bring, the scholarships which I was genuinely entitled to but never got, the stipend savings, salary savings and then the blast spending with my hard earned money. I worked; it worked, and will keep on working. I respect work and working women, despite the pressures that one goes through for the simple reason that it keeps one psychologically and emotionally strong and sometimes one can oversee the pay packet before one jumps the gun and decides not to work and give up altogether. I also worry about those women who conveniently decide not to come out of their comfort level and convince themselves that by marrying a rich guy all their worries would be taken care of. They often forget that it’s not so easy to please a
partner.
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Tackling India’s mining conundrum
India is gifted with large reserves of minerals. Unfortunately, many of these are located in tribal and forest areas. The proliferation of human and animal rights activism and stringent environmental
legislation have almost stymied the opening up of new mines
N. N. Sachitanand

Since it involves harsh labour and risk, mining has become associated with exploitation, child labour and many other unsavoury practices. Photo: AFP |
India’s Minister for Rural Development, Jairam Ramesh, recently had some harsh things to say about mining, blaming it for leading to environmental degradation, displacement of tribals and their impoverishment. He made these remarks at Lanjigarh in interior Orissa. Ramesh must have reached that spot either in a helicopter or by road in a SUV, both of which use metals (aluminium and steel), derived from minerals which have been mined. Among his other activities during that trip, he laid the foundation of a model school , which will use cement made from limestone which is mined . He would have used a mobile phone which uses a processor made from silicon which is manufactured from mined silica. Mining and exploitationNot to belabour the point further, modern human existence cannot survive without mining. It is not, as is mistakenly assumed, an activity born of the Industrial Revolution. It has been around ever since man decided to abandon existence in natural caves and take up living in structural residences which needed stones to be extracted from the earth. As mankind’s material needs multiplied in volume, variety and complexity, so did its digging up the earth for different minerals. Thus we had the Copper Age, Bronze Age , Iron Age and so on. Those nations which mastered the extraction and utilisation of minerals ended up at the top of the power heap. Unfortunately, because it involved harsh labour and risk (especially underground), mining became associated with exploitation, child labour, slavery and such unsavoury practices. In ancient times, slaves, war prisoners and convicts were forced to do mining tasks since they were “cheap” and “expendable”. Eighteenth century Wales saw children being sent into the shafts underground because their smaller size needed smaller tunnels. Even today, China loses as many as 3000 miners a year in explosions of methane gas in its coal mines. Since minerals commanded a special price, mining also became tied up to illegal activities such as smuggling , theft, murder, forced occupation and, of course, war. We have heard of the “Blood diamonds” of West Africa and , in our own backyard Veerappan was a household name in Karnataka in the realm of smuggling granite while the Reddy brothers of Bellary hogged headlines for their alleged illegal mining of iron ore for export. Impact on environment And, because it involves tearing up the earth to get at the minerals, mining is inherently an environmentally negative activity. Goa’s lush greenery was smothered in the dust raised by iron ore mining and transport, the Damodar river in Bihar became a black sludge carrying canal due to the detritus of coal mining and the once wooded hills overlooking Jaipur are now savagely scarred by rampant stone quarrying . India is gifted with large reserves of industrially valuable minerals like coal, iron ore, bauxite, limestone, granite, chromite, rare earths and others. Unfortunately, many of these are located in forested tracts of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, West Bengal, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan. These regions are inhabited by most of India’s tribals as well as wild animals. Since minerals were located in their territories, these mostly Central and Eastern regions in India should have been prosperous. But, due to a legislation created by the wily British during their reign in India, the major minerals were the property of the Central Government and all that the states got was a paltry royalty on the extracted minerals. The tribal inhabitants of these regions, who should have been wealthy because of the minerals in their land, were denied squatters’ rights and even had to suffer the deprivation of dislocation when they were evicted from areas to be mined. Wild animals were the greatest sufferers. They either got exterminated or driven away and their annual migration routes were cut off by mined areas. Forest Rights ActSince neither of these forest denizens had much of a voice in the early decades after Independence, sanctioning mining was no problem then for the authorities concerned. Not so now. The proliferation of human and animal rights activism as well as increasingly stringent environmental legislation and a proactive judiciary has almost stymied the opening up of new mines during the last decade. The new Forest Rights Act has given ownership rights of the land they are occupying to the tribals which has given them a strong bargaining position regarding the minerals in their areas. The renewed Maoist insurgency in the tribal tracts has further exacerbated the paralysis. Ironically , illegal mining is flourishing under the protectionist umbrella of the paid - off insurgents. This is not a happy situation. Thanks to the delays in opening up new coal mines, many of our new thermal power plants are running at low plant load factors and the resultant power crisis is playing havoc with industrial production. The entire profitability calculations of the new private power plants has gone askew which, in turn, is now worrying our banks which are their primary project lenders. India has rich deposits of iron ore and was, till recently, a major exporter of the mineral. However, in the last few months, thanks to various bans on mining of iron ore in the country , India’s steel mills have taken recourse to importing the mineral. Is it possible to forego mining and import our mineral needs instead? After all, Japan and South Korea have been doing that. Well, for one, importing minerals is a very costly proposition and a country needs to generate a huge amount of foreign exchange in exports to be able to afford those imports. Japan and South Korea have been able to do that because they have tiny populations to look after and developed internationally competitive product and manufacturing technologies. Coal importsOur steel mills may need to import 20-30 million tonnes this year to meet their requirements which could cost anywhere up to from $2 billion . Due to the delay in clearing proposed coal mining projects during the last five years, India’s coal imports are expected to surge by 28 % to 127 million tonnes this fiscal, costing nearly $12 billion. With our current account deficit already hitting an all-time high, we can ill afford such imports of minerals plentifully available within the country, especially when we have to import 90 % of our crude requirements and our forex reserves have now slipped below $ 300 billion. And then, there is the tiny matter of generating 100 million more jobs in the next 10 years, much of it expected from infrastructure and manufacturing, which depend on mineral-based products. An absolutist approach towards mining, therefore, will not do. Nor is it possible to go back to the old style laissez faire and damn the consequences to the environment, animals and tribals. What is needed is a middle-of-the-road mining policy which will aim to meet the mineral needs of the nation, cause the least possible collateral damage to the environment and enrich the local inhabitants. A good beginning is being made by adopting a rational and pragmatic approach to “no go” areas for mining involving tribal settlements and
traditional animal migration corridors. What should
be done
- Even though India has formidable reserves of some minerals, all of them will be needed sometime in the future to support the growing needs of our large population. Mineral reserves cannot be replenished Therefore, mining for export purposes should be banned. Moreover, mining causes environmental upheaval, and why should we suffer that for the benefit of other nations ? Goa ‘s iron ore mining for export was a mistake.
- Tribals should directly benefit from the exploitation of mineral reserves in their land. The proposed sharing of profits from the mines is not enough . Tribal cooperatives should directly receive a substantial portion of the royalties as well. Means should be explored to enable the displaced tribals to get equity in the mining company involved. The local population surrounding a mine should also be encouraged and enabled , even by means of a reservation system, to become entrepreneurs in ancillary activities such as transport, eateries, kirana stores, barber salons etc. At present, such activities are taken up by shrewd migrants from other regions of the country.
- Fragmented and scattered mining is not conducive to high productivity and introduction of the latest technology which limits environmental damage and improves safety. As far as possible, large sized , properly planned mining operations should be encouraged. It is also easier for the administration to keep tabs on a few large mines than hundreds of small ones.
- Quicker processing of mining applications is a must since developing a mine after getting the clearances can itself take a few years. As a corollary to this, preference should be given to companies already mining in the region when it comes to allocating new mines in that area, with the proviso that they have been faithful to the environmental and rehabilitation directions.
- Captive mining for downstream industries is a controversial issue. Some argue that it enables the processor industries to get away with high profits due to the low cost of minerals extracted. Others argue that they should be rewarded since they are adding value to the mined product. Perhaps, higher royalty for such captive mines can even the balance.

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