O P I N I O N S

Guest Column
Internal dissonance in Pak meets external effects
There are signals from Pakistan that are a mixture of opposites difficult to understand. However, a single strand runs through all of them — the rising strength of what is termed the ‘Deep State’ in all aspects of governance of Pakistan.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)
Last week was definitely a ‘Pakistan week’ in New Delhi with a series of discussions in various forums. The theme was the complexity of Pakistan’s internal dynamics marked by dissonance.

Fifty Fifty
When a PM stands up for women’s issues
Internationally, Modi's image will undergo radical transformation post his I-Day speech. He spoke of other issues as well, but for me he broke an age-old taboo and put gender at the heart of his speech.
Kishwar Desai
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech on Independence Day became a point of frustration for male commentators and politicians from opposing parties on Indian TV. It was amusing to see them struggle to point out all the clichéd subjects he should have addressed.

ground zero
Let’s heed this call from the heart
By his oratory Modi has only raised the expectations of better days ahead that he had promised. He has the reputation of not just being a good talker but also a problem solver. Now the Prime Minister must show that he can deliver.
Raj Chengappa
First a confession: I had lived in Delhi for almost a quarter of a century but had never travelled to the Red Fort to witness a Prime Minister address the nation on Independence Day. Rather than get up early, battle roadblocks and stringent security checks, I had preferred to watch the spectacle ‘live’ on television.

Guest Column
Internal dissonance in Pak meets external effects
There are signals from Pakistan that are a mixture of opposites difficult to understand. However, a single strand runs through all of them — the rising strength of what is termed the ‘Deep State’ in all aspects of governance of Pakistan.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)

Last week was definitely a ‘Pakistan week’ in New Delhi with a series of discussions in various forums. The theme was the complexity of Pakistan’s internal dynamics marked by dissonance. The conclusion largely was that this dissonance was sending confusing signals on who exactly was in charge in Islamabad and its approach towards India.

Imran Khan leads a protest march to Islamabad on August 15. AFP

These signals are a mixture of opposites difficult to understand. However, a single strand runs through all of them — the rising strength of what is termed the ‘Deep State’ in all aspects of governance of Pakistan. The Deep State is as yet struggling to respond adequately to Prime Minister Modi’s surprise gesture of inviting all SAARC leaders, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to the inauguration of India’s new government.

The opposing trends that make the situation difficult to assess are worth recounting. Heading the list is the seemingly stable, democratically elected government with a two-thirds majority, mostly won from the Punjabi heartland to which the majority of the Deep State belongs. The two are at odds on a very basic perception — how to deal with the radicalised thugs of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or simply the Pakistan Taliban, who threaten Pakistan’s existence as a state. While Sharif favours negotiations, the Deep State wishes to militarily subjugate them.

Then there is Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) with a majority only in the Frontier province, which contests Sharif’s legitimacy to rule and has a soft attitude towards the TTP. It conducts street protests and accuses Sharif of having rigged the polls.

A maverick west-based cleric whose political mooring in Pakistan is deeply suspect also adds to the road show. Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek hardly enjoys political legitimacy but the cleric returns ever so often as the supposed messiah of the moderate Muslim strain, the Barelvis, and to lend credence to some kind of a counter-movement against radicalism while expounding beliefs which the Barelvis themselves are at odds to understand. He is the favourite of the Deep State, which backs him while curbing Imran Khan because of his soft approach to the radicals. Qadri and Imran Khan’s movements may appear coordinated but actually aren’t, although their common objective is to weaken Sharif’s hold.

The Army is peeved at Sharif’s reluctance to retract the charges of treason against former President General Parvez Musharraf. Some months ago when General Raheel Sharif was appointed the Army Chief over the heads of two seniors it seemed that the ‘Sharif linkage’ had worked as much as the relationship built by Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif during General Raheel’s tenure as GOC, 4 Corps, at Lahore. However, nothing seems to have worked and the case against General Musharraf continues while General Raheel Sharif has ensconced himself in the culture of the Deep State.

Behind much of Nawaz Sharif’s discomfiture with the various stakeholders of the confused polity is his avowed intent to improve relations with India. He is often accused of following a personal agenda which involves the Sharif business empire. Yet, he is the legitimately elected head of government. But neither does Imran Khan think that nor does the Deep State want him to follow his agenda. So, where does that leave the political authority? Quite obviously, in the hands of the Deep State led by the army whose interest lies in perpetuating the standoff with India, militarily defeating the TTP and retaining political power from behind. That means the perpetuation of the Sharif government but in a weakened state.

The picture gets even murkier because the TTP, a surrogate of the Afghan Taliban, should be a natural link towards establishing Pakistan’s hold over Afghanistan once the International Security Assistance Force pulls out. But it is battling the Pakistan Army internally to establish a radical state in Pakistan. The only organisations with which the army has a relationship based on a common agenda are the India-focused Jihadi groups, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad; that is the only clear signal.

The Pakistan Army continues to receive support from the public and grudgingly from the US. The army has its Inter-Service Public Relations to oversee the perception management of the Deep State. The image transmitted to the world is that the Pakistan security establishment is under pressure of the Jihadis and the softness of Nawaz Sharif is preventing their annihilation. While a major part of the army is itself radicalised, the battle against the TTP is helping to prove that the Army is non-radical.

Where does that leave India in its relations with Pakistan? There can be nothing definitive. Any progress on peace with the elected Pakistan Government may well be diluted by the actions of the Deep State, within a few weeks. Everyone in India realises that the real challenge for the new government will come when the Deep State tests its will with a high-profile violent incident. The only way forward appears to be the way things are being currently handled: maintain a positive stance towards the peace process to strengthen democratic forces in Pakistan while continuing to give strong messages to the Deep State, just the way the Indian Prime Minister did at Kargil a few days ago. The balance must be tilted towards the peace process, which is recommencing with the Foreign Secretary level talks on August 25. At the same time, the Indian security establishment must ensure that our security remains foolproof, both at the LoC and in the hinterland.

A meltdown in Pakistan is not in India’s interest and the protagonists of the ‘stable Pakistan theory’ must work overtime to convince their detractors.

(The writer is a former Corps Commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, and now a visiting fellow with the Vivekanand International Foundation and Senior Fellow with the Delhi Policy Group)

Fifty Fifty
When a PM stands up for women’s issues
Internationally, Modi's image will undergo radical transformation post his I-Day speech. He spoke of other issues as well, but for me he broke an age-old taboo and put gender at the heart of his speech.
Kishwar Desai

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech on Independence Day became a point of frustration for male commentators and politicians from opposing parties on Indian TV. It was amusing to see them struggle to point out all the clichéd subjects he should have addressed. The same subjects that for years Prime Ministers have spoken about ad nauseum, without any physical change on the ground. The fact that many TV channels had all-male panels analysing the speech also showed the great disregard with which gender issues are held.

And so these poor TV commentators and political spokespersons frothed at the mouth and blustered about all the issues Modi could have raised, and didn't. For instance, why didn't the PM mention their three favourite ‘Ps’: Poverty, Price Rise and Pakistan? Apparently without these three constants mentioned by every PM from the ramparts of the Red Fort, no political speech could be considered complete. And without the cursory, rudimentary mention, no one could take the speech seriously.

Will their lot change?

What none of these boring, antediluvian men realised was that Modi had played a master stroke, and for the first time the international press would actually listen to a speech made by a newbie PM. And that is why even I got a midnight call from UK's Channel 4, which probably realised that at last a Prime Minister had made a speech whose impact would reverberate around the world.

I was asked directly, therefore, what I thought of the reference to gender issues in his speech? And how else could I answer, except to be absolutely appreciative? As a columnist I have written over and over about the need for politicians to lead by example. About how we in India need iconic figures, whom the country respects, to address issues of female foeticide and gender bias. That is the only way to bring about real transformation.

Did no one realise so far that gender has been the big unspoken issue in speeches year after year? The women of India are tired of being ignored. Many of us are particularly exhausted by people who keep saying “we need to change the mindset”. I have been hearing that for years, and the country had neither moved forward on women's issues, nor had anyone actually taken some action on it. For the first time, people all over the world have realised that the PM was not taking a reactive role, but a more proactive role. He was offering us easy to implement solutions, which would enhance women's security and comfort, such as building toilets in villages and schools. It was interesting to note that he himself pointed out that many would be quick to denigrate him asking why would a PM waste time talking about toilets for girls from the ramparts of the Red Fort. He also spoke about other important related issues, such as his dream of a 'clean India' in a couple of years. He wanted MPs to spend their MPLADs on making toilets and even on improving facilities and hygiene in adopted villages.

These suggestions have caught the imagination of the world, as India needs rapid change. And so on Channel 4 the anchor was quick to understand how much of a difference toilets for girls would make. She even tweeted about my comments, undoubtedly adding to the buzz around Modi's speech. She too wanted to know whether his reference to gender issues would lead to 'real' change? The fact that a PM spent time reflecting about gender issues, and focused on how families often discriminated in the way they brought up their boys and girls was by itself a giant leap forward.

Besides, those who take their cues from the PM will now know 'shauch' is not a dirty word. In fact, we need to get over our squeamishness and discuss how to create more ‘shauchalyas’, getting rid of the practice of open defecation, which also circumscribes the liberty of Indian women.

It was interesting that Modi pointed out how most families long to have sons for their 'comfort' in their old age. And yet the reality is so different. He gave a few examples which he had personally observed: there were men, he said, who despite having houses and cars put their parents in old age homes. And there were women who sacrificed their entire lives simply looking after their parents.

Yes, there is little doubt that internationally, Modi's image will undergo further radical transformation post his Independence Day speech. Of course, he spoke of other issues as well, but for me, and many other women around the globe, he broke an age-old taboo and put gender at the heart of his speech. In fact, now one hopes that leaders around the world will follow his example.