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A billion clicks A government of crybabies |
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Change of guard in Afghanistan
The idea of complete man
Pakistan’s internal security challenges
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A billion clicks A major splash was created in the e-commerce sector in India when Flipkart clocked a sale of goods worth Rs 600 crore in a day. The splash, however, rained on the parade, with a significant number of customer complaints about the discount sale. The company's competitors also gained from the increased consumer interest, with both Snapdeal and Amazon showing increase in sales from their portals as customers moved to wherever they got the best deal. E-commerce has captured the imagination of Indians, and it is not even Divali yet. Home-grown and international firms have shown a remarkable ability to attract the normally cautious consumers. Much of the attraction is based on the pricing break they give, as well as swift deliveries. Allegations of price manipulation took some sheen off the recent sale, but there is no denying the disruptive abilities of the e-commerce sector, even if none of the major companies is actually making money at the moment. The traditional brick and mortar retailers are feeling the heat. The Confederation of All India Traders wants the Minister of Commerce and Industry to monitor and regulate online businesses. While e-commerce is the fastest growing retail channel in India, the threat to the retailers may sound far-fetched at the moment, since it accounts for less than 1per cent of the total market. Yet the writing is on the wall. Indian customers are increasingly exploring online options. Just as the telecommunication revolution brought in greater connectivity and changed how many industries worked, the Internet is empowering consumers. In the process, a number of traditional business models are bound to be disrupted. Some of them will have to change, while others may be replaced by more efficient and better models. Companies will do well to adapt, improve services so that they can continue to attract customers, and give them value for money. Everyone will have to remember that the consumer is the king, now more than ever
before.
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A government of crybabies THE denial of bail to Jayalalithaa provoked protests by AIADMK workers in Tamil Nadu on Tuesday as emotions ran high and the government of mourners failed to act. Buses and personal vehicles bearing Karnataka registration numbers were particularly targeted. Private properties in Tamil Nadu owned by people from Karnataka were also attacked. There were clashes between DMK and AIADMK workers. A few supporters of Jayalalithaa even attempted suicide. The situation could deteriorate since the government seems averse to performing its constitutional duty of maintaining law and order. Media reports do not mention any cases being registered against attackers belonging to the
AIADMK, leave alone making the party pay for the damage to public and private properties as required by a Supreme Court judgment. The situation vindicates the decision to shift the trial outside Tamil
Nadu. Jayalalithaa has committed a crime and the conviction has demolished the high pedestal she had put herself on. She has hired the best possible lawyers that money can buy. The battle she and her party are fighting should stay within the four walls of the courtroom and not be allowed to spill over to the streets. A politician may be very popular and powerful but she or he is not above the law. Why the special public prosecutor dropped his initial opposition to the bail application of Jayalalithaa needs to be looked into. Justice
A.V. Chandrashekara of the Karnataka High Court, who heard the bail plea, was right in his observations that "Corruption is a serious offence; systemic corruption is even more serious… Corruption amounts to violation of human rights and leads to economic imbalance".
Jayalalithaa has won popular support with freebies, using the taxpayers' money for political ends. As the party
supremo, she has not allowed a second-rung leadership to grow in the
AIADMK. The present state of non-governance is a result of the self-created political vacuum in the party. She has installed a loyalist as a Chief Minister and hopes to govern the state by proxy.
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If government were a product, selling it would be illegal. — P. J. O'Rourke, an American political satirist
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Traffic in women in the Punjab IN his administration report for 1913, the Inspector General of Police, Punjab, says that the traffic in women is not only more extensive than would appear from statistics, but that it is increasing. It will be remembered that several police officers in the United Provinces also represented that girls were abducted by professional agencies to be sold to buyers in the Punjab. There appears to be a steady flow of low class women from the United Provinces and from the hilly tracts of Kangra and Sialkot. He does not, however, give us an idea as to the extent of the traffic. But it is known that Ambala is a recognised mart and U.P. women are bargained for and sold in that town. We are told is that Kangra girls are sold to well-to-do buyers in the plains and the Jammu authorities are taking serious notice of the matter. Lord Curzon's tribute to Indians ON September 7th Lord Curzon in his speech at Hull paid a generous tribute of praise to the Indian army. He esteemed Lord Hardinge's decision to send the Indian Troops to Europe as an act of the highest statesmanship and of the highest wisdom. "It would be an act of folly, he said, "to refrain from using troops which were not inferior to but in some respects the most efficient of the whole army. The martial spirit in India was famous, and why, when we wanted every man we could get, should we refrain from employing them, because the sun happened to have looked upon them and made them dark? They would not fire on the Red Cross badge; they would not murder innocent women and children; they would not bombard Christian cathedrals. The East was sending out a civilised soldiery to save Europe from the Modern Huns." This was a notable pronouncement from lord Curzon.
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Change of guard in Afghanistan
EVEN as Prime Minister Narendra Modi was cautioning Americans in New York against any precipitate withdrawal, Afghanistan was preparing for a momentous change in Kabul. Mr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai was taking over as Afghanistan's President from Mr. Hamid Karzai. Despite efforts to malign him personally and destabilise his government by worthy Americans like Peter Galbraith and Richard Holbrooke and a vicious propaganda barrage from Pakistan, President Karzai succeeded in establishing a measure of effective governance in Afghanistan. He skillfully brought together the country's fractious ethnic groups, to deal with challenges posed by the Pakistan-backed Afghan Taliban, Haqqani network and their Islamist allies, including Al-Qaida. The change of guard from Mr. Karzai to Mr. Ghani was not smooth. The first round of elections in April produced no clear winner. The second round in June, which was expected to be close, produced a stunning result. Mr. Ghani secured an astonishingly large victory over his rival, Mr. Abdullah Abdullah, a former Foreign Minister. Mr. Abdullah had a substantial lead in the first round of elections, securing 46% of the vote, against 32% for Ghani. A report by the European Union declared the second round of voting as “massively rigged”. A US report held that it was mathematically impossible for Mr. Ghani to have secured the margin of victory that he did. With controversy over the electoral result spiralling out of control and assuming divisive ethnic dimensions, the Americans brokered and virtually imposed an uneasy compromise between Mr. Ghani and Mr. Abdullah. Mr. Ashraf Ghani was sworn in as President and Mr. Abdullah as “Chief Executive,” a post which has no constitutional sanctity. The road map for this transition includes the convening of Loya Jirga to convert the post of “Chief Executive” into that of an “Executive Prime Minister”. It remains to be seen whether the contemplated changes with two separate centres of executive authority can provide stable and effective governance in a country beset with long-standing ethnic rivalries and tensions. Within 24 hours of the assumption of power by President Ashraf Ghani and “Chief Executive” Abdullah, Afghanistan and the US inked a security agreement, which will result in the 9,800 US troops remaining in Afghanistan beyond 2014 for a training and counter insurgency role. An agreement giving immunity to foreign forces against prosecution in Afghan courts was also inked. The agreements will allow the Americans to retain air bases across Afghanistan. Apart from formal statements by Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Sartaj Aziz and the Foreign Office welcoming the agreements, a meeting of the top brass of the Pakistan army also welcomed this development as a “good move for peace in Afghanistan”. This is an astonishing turnaround as Pakistan’s establishment has been uneasy with the American presence in Afghanistan. It comes at a time when 80,000 Pakistani troops and paramilitary, backed by air power, are pounding positions of the Pakistani Taliban in North Waziristan, in an operation resulting in an estimated one million tribal Pashtuns fleeing their homes. At the same time, the Mullah Omar-led Afghan Taliban have been on the rampage this year across Afghanistan, prompting the soft-spoken President Ghani to say: “We ask the opponents of the government, especially the Taliban and Hizb e Islami, to enter political talks”. Pakistan's massive military offensive in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan has been selectively undertaken. Long-term ISI “assets”, including the Haqqani network, the Mullah Omar-led Afghan Taliban and even the Al Zawahiri-led Al-Qaida have evidently received safe passage and been accommodated in ISI safe houses. They will be kept prepared to move into Afghanistan at a time of Pakistan’s choosing. Afghanistan is going to remain dependant on NATO for military and economic funding for the foreseeable future. NATO funding of Afghanistan’s military of $5.1 billion annually till 2017 has been agreed upon. A similar amount of external funding will be required for Afghanistan’s administrative and developmental needs. The joint declaration issued after the Obama-Modi Summit spoke of “dismantling of safe havens for terrorist and criminal networks, to disrupt all financial and tactical support for terrorist and criminal networks such as Al-Qaida, Lashkar e Taiba, Jaish e Mohammed, D-Company and the Haqqanis”. Significantly, there is no mention in the declaration of the Mullah Omar-led Taliban, which has been primarily responsible for the killings of 2,229 American soldiers in Afghanistan, the training of terrorists for jihad in Jammu and Kashmir and for colluding with the hijackers of IC 814. It has been obvious that the Americans are keen to do a deal with the Taliban. They may piously assert that any internal reconciliation process has to be “Afghan led”. But the reality is that the Americans have sought to give the Taliban international legitimacy ever since they encouraged Qatar to host a Taliban office in Doha. While an enraged President Karzai torpedoed this American effort, President Ghani will reluctantly have to accept American moves brokered by Pakistan, to accord legitimacy and a measure of territorial control in southern Afghanistan to the Taliban. India cannot be sanguine about these developments. A priority of the Obama Administration will be to safely take out its military equipment from Afghanistan through Pakistan. The Taliban will, therefore, be viewed more benignly than in the past. Militarily, the ISI/Taliban effort will be to seize control of large swathes of territory in southern Afghanistan, compelling a reduction of India's assistance in that part of the country. Contradictions in the priorities and compulsions of President Ghani and “Chief Executive” Abdullah in Kabul appear inevitable. Our membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will have to be utilised to fashion a more coordinated and harmonious approach with its members -- Russia, China, Iran and the Central Asian Republics. A more focused effort on developing the Port of Chah Bahar in Iran and on meeting Afghan requirements of defence equipment will be imperative. The post-9/11 “end game” for the Americans in Afghanistan is just beginning. The United States will, however, continue to significantly shape the course of developments in Afghanistan.
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The idea of complete man Recently some advertisers did just the opposite and took us back 30 years. I recoiled in horror as I watched two advertisements undo everything that had been done. A leading cooking oil brand showed a precocious tween proudly announcing her choice of cooking oil because it would make her daddy healthy. What about the rest of the family? But the horror continued... the very patronising aunt in the elevator corrected the tween and said, “Not a healthy daddy beta.... the healthiest.” Obviously the health of the family, including the little girl's, is not important. So we are back to square one.... the good old “pati parmeshwar” needs to be looked after. That's all that matters, right? Another advertisement extolled men to use a men's brand of shampoo if they didn't want to become lesser males. How did they drive home this point? Well, they showed men working out in a gym discussing the perennial problem of domestic help. Another ad showed them obsessing about how they looked. The message clearly was that if you use a woman’s shampoo that's all you'll think about. In other words you'll think like a woman. My question is: Why shouldn’t a man also worry about domestic help? Doesn't the absence of this help affect his life too? Why shouldn’t he worry about how he looks? Don't we women deserve a little eye candy as well? Men can never claim to be real men if we continue to demarcate areas of our lives based on gender. We must take equal responsibility. As I closed my eyes I sent up a silent prayer, thanking God for the real man in my life. I don't know of another man who would be fine with me not changing my name, or who worries as much as I about domestic nitty-gritty and still dresses like a million bucks. Thank God for my complete man.
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Pakistan’s internal security challenges
THE deteriorating internal security environment in Pakistan has gradually morphed into the country's foremost national security threat. The Pakistan army has been battling the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in North Waziristan since mid-June 2014 with only limited success. The Al-Qaida has been quietly making inroads into Pakistani terrorist organisations like the Lashkar-e-Tayebba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad Al-Islami (HuJI), Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). Recently, Ayman Al-Zawahari, the Al-Qaida Chief, announced the launch of a new wing in South Asia, to be based in Pakistan. Fissiparous tendencies in Balochistan and the restive Gilgit-Baltistan Northern Areas are a perpetual security nightmare. Karachi is a tinderbox that is ready to explode. Sectarian violence is rampant; the minority Shia community is being especially targeted by Sunni extremists. Other minorities like the Hindus, Sikhs and Christians have also been assaulted. And, there have been several instances of insider involvement in attacks on military establishments like the Mehran airbase and the Karachi naval dockyard. The realisation about the gravity of the internal security situation took some time to dawn even on the Pakistan army. Over the last decade, the army has deployed between 150,000 and 200,000 soldiers in the Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa and FATA areas for counter-insurgency operations. It has suffered over 15,700 casualties, including 5,000 dead since 2008. The total casualties, including civilian, number almost 50,000 since 2001.
War on terror Hurt by a series of Taliban successes in “liberating” tribal areas and under pressure from the Americans to deliver in the “war on terror”, in the initial stages the Pakistan army employed massive firepower to stem the rot — as was visible on television screens worldwide when operations were launched to liberate the Swat Valley (Operation Rah-e-Rast, May-June 2009) and South Waziristan (Operation Rah-e-Nijat, Oct-Nov 2009). Fighter aircraft, helicopter gunships and heavy artillery were freely used to destroy suspected terrorist hideouts, irrespective of civilian casualties. This heavy-handed, firepower-based approach without simultaneous infantry operations on the ground failed to dislodge the militants, but caused large-scale collateral damage and alienated the tribal population even further. Counter-insurgency operations against the TTP in South Waziristan drove most of the fighters to North Waziristan, but for long the army remained reluctant to extend its operations to this province.
Lack of cohesion Despite facing the grave danger of a possible collapse of the state, the Pakistan government's counter-insurgency policy had until recently lacked cohesion. The commencement of a peace dialogue with the TTP, despite the abject failure of several such efforts in the past, allowed the terrorist organisation to re-arm, recruit and train fresh fighters. It also gave the TTP leadership the opportunity to cross the border into Afghanistan. In March 2014, the TTP offered a month-long cease-fire. The army honoured the cease-fire and refrained from active operations, but several TTP factions fought on. On April 16, the TTP withdrew its pledge and blamed the government for failing to make any new offers. In the face of mounting public and army pressure, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif reluctantly agreed to approve military strikes. The PM is now backing the army fully and has said that he will not allow Pakistan to become a “sanctuary for terrorists” and that the military operation will continue till all the militants are eliminated.
Refugees in own land On June 15, 2014, the Pakistan army and air force launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb (sharp and cutting strike), their much-delayed offensive against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in North Waziristan. The operation began with air strikes and was subsequently followed up with offensive counter-insurgency operations on the ground. Operations of the Pakistan Air Force were supplemented by US drone strikes, which were resumed after six months and caused extensive damage. Approximately 30,000 regular soldiers of the Pakistan army are involved in the operation. As a result of the operation, one million civilians have become refugees in their own land.The army claims to have eliminated over 1,000 terrorists so far, a large number of them foreign terrorists. Most of the others have escaped across the border into Afghanistan.
Good Taliban spared Though the Army Chief has said that the present operation is aimed at eliminating “all terrorists and their sanctuaries” in North Waziristan, no strikes have been launched against the Haqqani network and two other militant groups that have been primarily targeting the NATO/ ISAF forces and the Afghan National Army (ANA) — the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group and the Mullah Nazir group. These three groups are called the “good Taliban” by the Pakistan army and the ISI and are looked upon as “strategic assets” to influence events in Afghanistan after the NATO/ ISAF draw down has been completed. The Haqqani network has also been employed to target Indian assets in Afghanistan. North Waziristan has rugged mountainous terrain that enables TTP militants to operate like guerrillas and launch hit-and-run raids against the security forces. When cornered, the militants find it easy to slip across the Durand Line to safe sanctuaries in Khost and Paktika provinces of Afghanistan. So far, only limited success has been achieved in military operations in North Waziristan. The coming winter season will make it even more difficult to conduct effective operations.
Not military solutions alone There can never be a purely military solution to an insurgency. A successful counter-insurgency strategy is a dynamic but balanced combination of aggressive offensive operations conducted with a humane touch, good governance and socio-economic development. Political negotiations to address the core issues of alienation of the population and other political demands must also be conducted with the local leadership simultaneously. The tribal culture prevailing in the Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and FATA, with its fierce ethnic loyalties, makes the task of the army and the government more difficult.
Impact on India-Pakistan ties What do these developments portend for India? It is a truism that regional instability always has a negative impact on economic development and trade. Creeping Talibanisation and radical extremism are threatening Pakistan's sovereignty. If the Pakistan army fails to conclusively eliminate the scourge in the north-west, it will soon reach Punjab, which has been relatively free of major incidents of violence. After that, it will only be a matter of time before the terrorist organisations manage to push the extremists across the Radcliffe Line into India — first ideologically and then physically. It is in India's interest for the Pakistan government to succeed in its fight against radical extremism, or else India may have to fight the Taliban at the Atari-Wagah border. General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani's statement after the April 2012 avalanche at the Gayari battalion HQ that peace with India is in Pakistan's interest and that the Siachen conflict zone should be demilitarised, was undoubtedly encouraging as it was the first such overture made by a Pakistani COAS. Given the challenges posed by growing internal instability, the need to cooperate with NATO/ ISAF forces and the fear of major Indian strikes if the ISI-sponsored Jihadi organisations like the LeT and the JeM launch another Mumbai-type terrorist strike, the Pakistan army had until recently curtailed its proxy war operations against India, but had been keeping the pot simmering so that it could ratchet up violence levels quickly when required. Recent incidents on the LoC and the increase in infiltration levels this summer negate the genuineness of moves towards rapprochement. Hence, Pakistan's recent overtures towards India are a tactical ploy to tide over the army's current difficulties at home, rather than a paradigm shift in grand strategy.The Pakistan army is still light years away from a genuine change of heart about the futility of prolonged hostility towards India.Nevertheless, besides talks with the Pakistan government, the Indian government should begin a back-channel dialogue with the Pakistan army as it is the real power centre in Pakistan. Even during war it is always advisable to keep a channel of communication open with the adversary. The precarious situation in Pakistan is gradually headed towards a dangerous denouement. The government has been unable to deal effectively with the prolonged street protests by Imran Khan and Tahir ul-Qadri. The likelihood of a military coup is being openly discussed again. Pakistan cannot survive as a coherent nation state unless the army gives up its agenda of seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan, discontinues its attempts to destabilise India through its proxy war and stops its meddling in Pakistan's politics. The army must substantively enhance its capacity to conduct effective counter-insurgency operations. Political turmoil, internal instability, a floundering economy and weak institutions make for an explosive mix. Pakistan is not yet a failed state, but the situation that it is confronted with could rapidly degenerate into unfettered disaster. All institutions of the state must stand together for the nation to survive its gravest challenge. In the national interest, the army must give up its dubious role as a “deep state” and accept civilian control, even if it does so with bad grace. Also, the Pakistan army and the ISI must concentrate on fighting the enemy within, rather than frittering away energy and resources on destabilising neighbouring countries.
Pak’s war within
— The writer is a Delhi-based strategic analyst
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THE 90s heralded a new era in gender equation. We were introduced to the idea of 'the complete man'. We were flooded with images of the caring dad, changing diapers, cooking, cleaning all inclusive. Just when we thought we had nailed it and broadened the role of the till-now provider, we were bombarded with the new complete man (read the metro sexual male). The Indian male was no longer just the rough and tumble guy who got the bread to the table. He was someone who wanted to look good, feel good and be all hands on. Suddenly it was cool to be pushing the stroller, running the washing machine and rustling up a fancy meal for the working wife and what the heck, even staying home and bringing up the baby, all along looking like a million bucks. All this led to a revolution of sorts and men did change. A lot of credit for this would go to the power of advertising and the image sold to the huge urban population. Women couldn’t have been happier.