Economy to grow between 6.1% and 6.3% in Q2: RBI

Mumbai, November 18

India’s economic growth is likely to be in the range of 6.1 to 6.3% in the second quarter, helping the country achieve 7% growth rate in the current fiscal, said an article published in the Reserve Bank’s bulletin released on Friday.

GDP data to be released on Nov 30

• The central bank, however, highlighted that the global economy continues to be clouded with downside risks, with global financial conditions tightening and deteriorating market liquidity amplifying financial price movements
• GDP data for the July-September quarter will be released on November 30
• The economy expanded by 13.5% in April-June 2022-23, higher than 4.10% growth clocked in January-March

The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the growth estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the July-September quarter on November 30.

The article titled ‘State of the Economy’, written by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra, also said recent global developments have thrown up both risks and opportunities.

The macroeconomic outlook can best be characterised as resilient but sensitive to formidable global headwinds, it noted.

Based on high frequency indicators, the authors said their ‘nowcasting’ and full information models peg real GDP growth in second quarter of 2022-23 between 6.1 and 6.3%.

“If this is realised, India is on course for a growth rate of about 7% in 2022-23. In Q3, supply responses in the economy are gaining strength,” it added.

The central bank, however, said the opinions expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the RBI.