Indian economy estimated to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, January 7

The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, as against a contraction of 7.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, said the National Statistical Office (NSO) while releasing the advance estimate of GDP for fiscal 22.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a month back, projected a more optimistic GDP growth rate of 9.5 per cent with inflation estimated at 5.3 per cent. But some rating agencies fear that the rising Omicron cases may shave up to 0.3 per cent from GDP estimates for the fourth quarter.

In actual numbers, real GDP in the fiscal 2022 is estimated at Rs 147.54 lakh-crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for fiscal Rs 135.13 lakh-crore in the fiscal 2021. In other words, the NSO anticipates the GDP to grow by about Rs 12 lakh-crore during the current fiscal.

However, the numbers are still below pre-pandemic levels. At this point two years back, NSO had estimated Real GDP in fiscal 20 at Rs. 147.79 lakh-crore. This means that at the end of the current fiscal real GDP will fall short of the performance achieved two years back by Rs. 0.25 lakh-crore.

The growth in GDP during the current fiscal was mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

“The advance estimates are more optimistic considering the supply bottlenecks, coal, power and semiconductor shortages and the looming third wave of the pandemic,” said analysts Brickwork Ratings.  

The advance estimates are the extrapolation of the numbers based on the six to eight months of the current fiscal. They serve as an essential input to the upcoming Budget exercise for the next fiscal.

Despite the shortfall in disinvestment proceeds and additional demand for supplementary grants, the fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP is likely to be achieved, it said.

 GDP for the second quarter of the current fiscal grew 8.4 per cent on a year-to-year basis.