Better to jaw-jaw than to war-war

IN the merry-go-round world of global politics, here’s how the cookie is crumbling this week.

US President Donald Trump has told Fox News that he spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, just before his inaugural, on “Tiktok, trade and Taiwan” and that the conversation was friendly. Now we know that Trump had invited Xi to his inaugural too, but Xi sent Vice-President Han Zheng instead. Moreover, Trump has since both called off his proposed ban on Tiktok as well as his campaign harrumph on imposing tariffs (as high as 60 per cent) on China.

We also know that Indian officials in the embassy in Washington DC had requested the Trump transition team, on the eve of the inaugural, for an invite for Prime Minister Modi to attend. But Trump’s men remonstrated, saying there was too much happening and not enough time — some such excuse.

Instead, they gave External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar a front-row seat to all the goings-on that afternoon. (No one knows where Han Zheng sat.) The Americans, keenly aware that perception is half of any foreign policy success, also organised a Quad meeting the day after — it sent a message to the Chinese that you may be snapping at our heels, but hey, we have India, Australia and Japan in our pack.

The bigger message to everyone, especially India, is that Naya America has no problems talking to anyone — it’s enough to look around you and notice how nations are changing friends faster than the flow of the Ganga at the Maha Kumbh. One month ago, Trump was threatening hell or high water with Xi — he is now purring like a Siamese cat. And earlier this week, a team from Pakistan’s ISI establishment flew to Bangladesh, for the first time since 2009 — mere days after a Bangladeshi military delegation led by Lt Gen SM Kamrul Hassan, the Principal Staff Officer of the Armed Forces Division, flew to Islamabad.

In the middle of this churning, the only bond that has remained steadfast is the one that both sides define as being “higher than the mountains, deeper than the seas and sweeter than honey” — the one between Pakistan and China.

So dear Reader, as you watch the earth turn on its axis, watch also the shrivelling of old allegiances and the thrill that comes with building new ones. In Punjab, you cast off the old and the unwanted at Lohri, because at Makar Sankranti, when the month of Magh unveils itself, a new world awaits.

See what Magh has heralded for the world so far : New friendships between the US and China, an underlining of old ties between China and Pakistan as well as an unusual intimacy between Pakistan and Bangladesh — they were part of one country, after all, once upon a time, until the world shifted in 1971 and a new nation was born.

Now the world is shifting again. It’s clear that the ISI is in charge of Bangladesh. Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has turned out to be a ‘mukhauta’ who has played his role as saviour to the hilt — it doesn’t matter if and when he moves on, Pakistan has won the latest round in the great game unfolding once again in South Asia.

India may be on the back foot in Bangladesh — which is why it’s a good thing it is standing by its old friend, Sheikh Hasina. And since the ISI is back in Dhaka, you can bet your last taka that the attempt to destabilise India’s North-east will be the new game in town.

Remember, dear Reader, that Manipur continues to burn, after almost two years, that Assam is sitting on a powder-keg, that Mizoram is so unsettled — that Bangladesh is next door.

So as Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri flies to Beijing on Republic Day — and the symbolism on that one will wait to be explained another day — the fact remains that the recent Modi-Xi embrace in Kazan, Russia, no doubt brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, allowed both India and China to return a series of conversations on their long-standing territorial dispute.

That’s a good thing. Much better to jaw-jaw than to war-war, especially if you consider the enormous military disparity between India and China. So while the agreement allows Indian troops to return to patrolling areas they could not since April 2020, it is still unclear where the buffer zones lie and whether both sides are returning to a pre-April 2020 position.

Meanwhile, it’s a good thing too that PM Modi is seeking an early meeting with Trump — he will understand the extent of the US-China tango that is currently unfolding, with Elon Musk in attendance as Chief Liaison Officer. Clearly both Trump and Musk want to rebalance the highly unequal trade that is currently in China’s favour, but they have no problem talking to the enemy.

It’s what Putin is also currently doing — circling, fencing, jousting with Trump. Let’s talk, he’s saying, what is it exactly that you want? Even as Putin rained destruction on his blood brothers in Ukraine these last two years, it is clear he has prepared for a conversation with Joe Biden’s successor.

The problem with New Delhi is that it allows emotion to come in the way of the games big nations play. Unlike Trump and Putin and Xi — who are always willing to negotiate with their enemies because the first rule of thumb in all politics is to keep your friends close and your enemies closer — PM Modi won’t talk to Pakistan for a number of reasons. Cross-border terrorism, anyone?

But then again the news is that Delhi is unhappy with Nepal PM KP Oli because he dared to first travel to Beijing instead of coming to Delhi, and so an Oli visit to Delhi is being forever postponed. It’s another matter that the prime benefactors of both Pakistan and Nepal are China – so the mystifying question, why is India punishing the peoples of these countries even if it doesn’t agree with their governments?

Ever wondered what prevents this incredibly diverse, ancient nation that has always followed its own rhythms from achieving greatness? In this month of Magh, the answers beckon, you just have to know where to look for them.