Deep fissures in US society

The US presidential election has been anything but smooth. The final result is not known but it clearly appears that Joe Biden is on his way to victory. President Donald Trump has made accusations of fraud in states where he was initially in the lead but Biden has all but caught up. His party has taken matters to the courts and he has announced that he will fight it out till the Supreme Court. It is mind-boggling that the world’s greatest power with all its technological strengths has not been able to devise ways to ensure that results can become known in a predictable time-frame. Though the pandemic added to this election’s complexities, including through a large number of postal votes, but that has not been the only cause of difficulties.

The election also shows the need for US electoral reform. In contrast, India, with all its complexities, is able to conduct elections smoothly and credibly.

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The archaic and decentralised system which allows states to determine election procedures results in lack of uniformity in the election administration. This may flow from the federal principle which is a cornerstone of the US political system, but may result in making election outcomes known in a predictable manner problematic, thereby generating uncertainty and adversely impacting not only the US, but also the world. The US President holds the most powerful political office of the world and uncertainties about who will hold it troubles the international community. The longer the delay in knowing this the greater the trouble. This is going to be so on this occasion because the process is getting involved in judicial proceedings.

This election has revealed the great and continuing divisions at the core of US society and polity. The split almost down the middle with a few percentage points advantage for Biden in the popular nationwide vote reveals the great abyss in society. This mirrors the 2016 election where Hillary Clinton had the leads but Trump won because of decisively beating her in the electoral college. Indeed, Trump’s success in 2016 was largely on account of these great divides along several societal axes—education and skills, ideology, rural-urban and the great mass of people feeling helpless and hopeless in the midst of rapid technological change.

Trump did nothing to bridge these divides. Indeed, he consolidated them through his exclusivist policies under the rubric of America First. This appealed to his base which has stuck to him as is clearly indicated by this election. At this stage, too, instead of seeking to calm the country, Trump has done the opposite by asserting that his rival is robbing him of the election. Departing from convention—and throughout his term, he has shown complete disregard for conventions—Trump declared as initial results came in that as far as he was concerned, he had won the election!

No wonder some demonstrations are taking place with angry supporters of both parties reiterating the demands of their leaders: that counting of votes should stop (Trump), and that every vote should be counted (Biden). The difficulty is that the lack of uniformity in the counting process followed by different states and counties has led to the narrowing, if not reversal, of early leads in the swing states which decide the election. This raises doubts and suspicions, particularly as the counting is stretching in time. This election shows the great need for electoral reform in the US. It is noteworthy in contrast to the confusion that is prevailing in these elections, India, with all its complexities, is able to conduct elections smoothly and credibly. Indians seldom claim credit for their own processes, but this is one time to acknowledge the strengths of their own election administration system. This is not to suggest that there is no scope for improvement in them.

In sharp contrast to Trump, Biden is an establishment person well experienced in the ways of Washington. As Vice-President to Barack Obama, he stuck to the tradition of deference to his leader but was known for his political skills acquired in a 36-year career as a Senator. He has pledged to heal the divisions and certainly he will not be as erratic as Trump. The difficulty he will immediately face, if he does succeed, is that the Senate will continue to be in Republican hands. That will require him to work with that party to devise compromises on all fronts, including foreign policy.

Biden’s first task would be to calm global nerves that have been frayed by four years of Trump’s behaviour. The international community puts a premium on certainty and predictability of policy, especially of a superpower. With Trump, it has been on a roller coaster. This has been particularly the experience of US’s European allies. He railed against NATO which has been the bedrock of the Atlantic Alliance in the security sphere. With China, too, Trump has only lately shown a full and stubborn desire for containment. Objective factors should compel an adherence to this approach, but with Trump, instincts come into play and these are not the best guides for foreign policy.

Biden would revert to the traditional US approach of strengthening the Atlantic Alliance and he will ensure greater stability in these important relationships. He will be strong on China, as demanded by US national interest, but his language and diplomatic methods will be less abrasive.

The two foreign policy initiatives of the Obama administration that Trump overturned related to climate change and the Iran nuclear question. Biden has already made it clear that he favours the US re-entry in the Paris climate accord. The international community will applaud this decision, but with the Senate under Republican control, it will be necessary for Biden to work out the details. Similarly, Biden is likely to reverse Trump’s hostility towards Iran and may revert largely to the Obama approach, changing the dynamics of West Asia.

But first, the US election process has to come to a conclusion and that is likely to be drawn-out. America and the world are in for a painful wait.