Defection, dissidence rouse Congress from stupor

IN this hot summer, both the Congress and the BJP are feeling the heat. The Congress has witnessed the defection of former Union minister Jitin Prasada to the BJP, besides rumblings in Punjab and Rajasthan. A committee set up by the AICC ‘interim president’ Sonia Gandhi tried to broker a truce between Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and his detractors.

Prasada’s defection worked as a wake-up call, with the Congress high command summoning Sachin Pilot to break the ongoing impasse with Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Pilot is said to have declined an offer to be AICC general secretary at the Congress’ national headquarters, insisting that first his supporters should be rehabilitated in the Gehlot cabinet and the Rajasthan unit of the party.

The gulf between Rahul Gandhi’s and Sonia Gandhi’s thinking is reportedly widening. Sonia is said to be keen to prevent further desertions, while Rahul is apparently in favour of letting all those go who wish to switch sides or opt for ‘greener pastures’. It is believed that Sonia has agreed to grant a Rajya Sabha berth to ‘G23’ member Ghulam Nabi Azad with the help of ally DMK. Rajya Sabha byelections are due in Tamil Nadu.

On another plane, poll strategist Prashant Kishor went to Mumbai to call on Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar. Kishor and Pawar are said to be working on a plan to bring all non-BJP/NDA regional players such as Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin, Uddhav Thackeray and Jagan Mohan Reddy on board to work out a mahagathbandhan against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There is a lack of clarity about the role of the Congress, the Left and parties like the Biju Janata Dal that can serve as important players in a big grouping against Modi.

For the first time in seven years, the BJP is looking a tad vulnerable. And it’s not just about the poor state of economy or the inept handling of the Covid-19 catastrophe, but the disquiet from within. Dissident activity within the ruling BJP in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh is reaching a crescendo. In Bhopal, Cabinet ministers were heard taking potshots at one another, staging a walkout and mocking senior bureaucrats in the presence of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

While the political situation in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh is alarming, Uttar Pradesh seems to be heading for a point of no return. Uttar Pradesh is set to go to the polls early next year. It is said that the road to Delhi goes via Lucknow. In the context of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the importance of UP is paramount. Once again, more than tactless handling of the Covid-19 second wave, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath faces a virtual revolt from a sizeable chunk of BJP MLAs. The recently concluded panchayat polls have been far below the expectations of the ruling party and some internal assessment points at ‘not so bright’ outcome in the 2022 Assembly polls. More importantly, there are reports of growing differences between Delhi (BJP leadership) and Lucknow (Yogi Adityanath). These differences relate to the appointment of a senior bureaucrat from the Prime Minister’s Office as a BJP MLC in Uttar Pradesh and abortive attempts to make him the Deputy Chief Minister in the politically most significant state of the country. Yogi supporters perhaps felt that a Deputy CM, a Delhi durbar appointee, may act as a ‘super chief minister’ or undermine the political authority of the incumbent chief minister.

Some sections of the media and political analysts are speculating that the BJP top brass is toying with the idea of bifurcating or trifurcating Uttar Pradesh. Such a move is fraught with danger. Ideally, the Prime Minister should mull over the idea of setting up the Second States Reorganisation Commission (SSRC) so that a clinical and professional exercise is conducted. After all, there have been legitimate and historic agitations for the creation of Vidarbha (Maharashtra) and Gorkhaland (Bengal). Why should Uttar Pradesh be accorded importance simply because it is BJP-ruled and any bifurcation or trifurcation would result in more BJP-ruled states? The advocates of this move point at a state Assembly resolution passed during Mayawati’s rule in 2011 that has been gathering dust in the North Block. The resolution had recommended the division of Uttar Pradesh into four units: Uttaranchal (eastern UP), Awadh (Central UP), Bundelkhand and ‘Harit Pradesh’ (western UP).

Any move to set up the SSRC would open a Pandora’s box. The States Reorganisation Act of 1956 was a major reform of the boundaries and governance of the country’s states and territories. Although many additional changes to state boundaries — including the creation of new states like Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand — have taken place since 1956, the States Reorganisation Act remains the most extensive change in state boundaries since Independence. The States Reorganisation Commission was headed by Justice Fazl Ali, a retired judge of the Supreme Court.

All eyes are now on Modi and Yogi on how they negotiate the Uttar Pradesh tangle. If the Uttar Pradesh CM manages to stay on till the 2022 Assembly polls and prevents a bifurcation/trifurcation move, he would emerge as a power centre in the BJP where the scope for more than the big two has remained non-existent.