Election results show the political class has let Punjab down

THE 2024 parliamentary elections in Punjab were exceptional in many respects. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP went solo in all 13 seats in the state, necessitated by their break-up in 2020. It was an election to test whether the state would finally respond to the ‘national constituency’ phenomenon sought to be created by the saffron party across the states in the past decade. It was based on issues like cultural nationalism, national security, the exalted place of the country in the world order, India being the fifth-largest economy, welfare guarantees and Modi’s leadership.

This was yet another opportunity for the SAD — the oldest regional party in India and one that has always claimed to represent the Sikh community’s political interests — to check the steep slide in its electoral fortunes. And if the slide were to continue, what would be the implications for the Sikh-majority state?

At a time when there has been a large-scale ideological shift to right-wing conservatism, visible in the surge of cultural nationalism in north, central and western India, would Punjab remain immune to it, despite having a sizeable Hindu population? Was there an unmistakable sign of the revival of radicalism in the Sikh community, already indicated by the unexpected win of Simranjit Singh Mann in the 2022 Sangrur bypoll and the Amritpal Singh episode? The election was also seen as a mid-term assessment of the performance of the AAP government, which has a brute majority of 92 in the 117-member House.

The poll was yet another test of the farmers’ power in state politics. The question was whether the agrarian distress was going to be an issue that would have a significant electoral impact, especially for the BJP and the Akali Dal.

Going by the verdict, it is obvious that Punjab’s ‘exceptionalism’ continues in many ways. For one, local issues and candidates continued to determine the electoral choices in the state, even though it was a General Election. The Modi factor did not work in Punjab. BJP candidates and state leaders — many among them turncoats — continued to face protests by farmers — a repeat of the 2022 Assembly elections.

Though the party polled an impressive 18.56 per cent of the vote share, it could not win even a single seat. This time, the BJP was the runner-up in Gurdaspur, Ludhiana and Jalandhar, which all have a significant Hindu presence.

As far as the AAP government’s dismal performance is concerned, it was evident that the party banked upon its populist schemes to mobilise voters and not on the basis of its record of the fulfilment of its promises of eradicating drugs, corruption and all kinds of mafias, from sand to liquor.

It did not help that the party has been making these promises since it made its debut in the 2014 elections, when it won four seats in Punjab. It also hardly helped the party that some of its top leaders have been in jail or are facing trials/criminal charges. The fact that AAP contested 22 seats in India but could only win three (all in Punjab) is little solace for the party.

The Congress managed to win seven seats with a 26.3 per cent vote share, slightly higher than AAP’s 26.02 per cent. It obviously benefited from the plurality voting system. The party’s decision to not have an alliance with AAP despite being part of the INDIA coalition did help it, as it got the anti-incumbency votes cast against the AAP government. Rahul Gandhi’s frequent visits to the Golden Temple and his nationwide appeal against majoritarianism helped endear the Congress to the Sikh masses.

The steady decline of the Akali Dal, the Panthic party that shaped the politics of the state, continued as it managed to get only 13.42 per cent vote share, down from 27.76 per cent in the 2019 election. The lone win from the Badal family seat of Bathinda is not going to erase the question mark about Sukhbir Badal’s leadership. Once a cadre-based ideologically oriented party, the SAD’s decline is bad news for the state, as it creates a vacuum, allowing for the rise of hitherto dormant radical, secessionist forces.

The victories of Amritpal Singh and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, the independent candidates from the Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot constituencies, respectively, with impressive margins, are a worrying development. Both have been identified with separatism. Their wins are a grim reminder of a segment of the Sikh electorate still harbouring the wounded psyche, a result of decades-old unfulfilled demands and the unfortunate events that occurred in the dark days of militancy. Also, their wins can be attributed to the growing alienation of people — especially the youth, who have been rendered unemployable because of the dismal state of the education sector — from traditional parties.

The exodus of industries and the agrarian crisis mean very few job opportunities for the youth, and hence the large-scale migration of human capital is happening, emptying the villages. There is also growing demographic anxiety as the exodus of the youth coincides with an influx of the Hindu migrant working class.

People in the state are consumed by the fear of ruination of its agriculture-based economy, as the Green Revolution had run its course long ago. The landed peasantry, once dubbed ‘rich farmers’, are now at the receiving end, as successive governments at the Centre — under the spell of the corporate sector — have focused on the service and manufacturing sectors. Here again, industries have been migrating to neighbouring states. The political class has let Punjab down.