Flawed policies have ravaged Manipur

Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh, who is under scrutiny for his alleged role in inciting the violence that has plagued the state over the past 21 months, resigned on February 9 following a meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The prolonged unrest has not only led to rape, murder and destruction of property on a large scale but also scarred the psyche of the Manipuri people.

The startling quandary of the situation came to the fore recently when Shah claimed that the North-East was once “known for terrorism, infiltration, blockade, drugs, armed trafficking, corruption and national disturbances.” He added that “today, it is known for development, connectivity, infrastructure, education, investment and agriculture development.” He also highlighted the fact that Central ministers had visited the region over 700 times during the past decade. Virtually addressing an event where appointment letters were given to youths in Agartala (Tripura), he claimed that PM Narendra Modi as well as the Union and state governments were fully committed to Tripura’s welfare. There was no word on a similar commitment to Manipur’s welfare.

Shah earlier met the CM’s critic, Panchayati Raj Minister Y Khemchand Singh, and Manipur Assembly Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata Singh. Party MLAs had unequivocally told Satyabrata that more than two-thirds of them were not happy with the current leadership. Calling the turmoil intolerable, they said they could not wait anymore and were going to make some move in the interest of the public and the state. Laying emphasis on the restoration of peace and normalcy, they threatened that something big and unprecedented would happen during the upcoming Assembly session if course correction was not done before that (the session, which was set to commence on February 10, was eventually declared null and void in the wake of Biren’s resignation). They also contradicted Shah, who had said in Tripura’s context that 2,800 youths getting jobs was an epochal event.

The disquiet and violence since May 2023 repeatedly raised doubts about Biren’s leadership, but the party high command, including the PM and the Home Minister, were not inclined to remove him. In the meantime, bickering within the state party unit kept growing. Ten Kuki-Zo MLAs declared their intent to boycott the Assembly session. The BJP’s allies, the Naga People’s Front and the Janata Dal (United), withdrew support from the state government. Taking advantage of the political crisis, the main Opposition party, the Congress, planned to move a no-confidence motion during the session. The report of the recently appointed Governor Ajay Bhalla, who recently superannuated as Union Home Secretary and is well aware of both the political as well as the law and order situation, must have played a key role in the matter.

Things took an intriguing turn when Biren was accused of having played a role in inciting ethnic violence. The Kuki Organisation for Human Rights Trust moved the Supreme Court, alleging that there were audio tapes that established the CM’s complicity. The SC has referred the tapes to the Central Forensic Science Laboratory (CFSL), giving it six weeks to submit a report. Meanwhile, an analysis conducted by Truth Labs Forensic Services, a private non-profit organisation, has revealed that there is “93 per cent probability” that the voice in the leaked tapes is of Biren.

If the CFSL report matches the Truth Labs findings, it will have a huge impact not only on the politics of the state but also at the national level. Biren had been acting at the instance of the BJP high command and the Union Government, which was clear from the fact that despite the carnage that stirred the national conscience, neither the party nor the Centre showed any inclination to remove him — till their leaders’ heads could no longer remain above water.

Apart from exerting pressure to get him removed, the Opposition planned an attack on the Central BJP leadership, even as Biren pursued the Modi-Shah politics of Hindutva and unified the Meiteis under this umbrella, while the RSS played a role too.

Manipur has an approximately 390-km-long border with Myanmar, of which 10 km have been fenced. While the BJP keeps blaming local Kuki-Zo tribes for infiltration of their community members from Myanmar and causing disquiet in the state, representatives of the tribe have alleged that the Biren Singh government used infiltration as a pretext to exacerbate the conflict. Despite the geographical improbability of fencing the entire border, the government pursued this course due to vested interests and the “economics of corruption”.

The endemic drug trafficking in the region from the porous border abutting Myanmar and Thailand is also at the root of the current crisis. Since the proceeds of this illicit trade naturally go to any party ruling these northeastern states, the BJP in Manipur cannot be expected to be immune to this phenomenon.

I have been suggesting mechanisms of federalism and autonomy in such multi-ethnic states to encourage self-governance at different levels. Manipur does not have just a two-tribe binary; it also has the Hmar, Vaiphei, Gangte, Kom, Chiru, Anal and Maring tribes. Yet, the Modi government and the BJP are against such measures unless any political advantage accrues. In the case of the forest and natural resource-rich hill regions inhabited by the Kukis, autonomy would come in the way of doling these out to corporates aligned with the Union Government.

Even though Modi usually blames the Congress for the crises triggered during the BJP’s decade-long rule, the ploy falls flat in the case of the saffron party’s active acquiescence in the conflict. The all-important question is: When will Manipur come out of the prolonged violent crisis?