For once, AAP on the defensive in Delhi

The Delhi Assembly elections continue to pivot around Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), thanks to its two full terms (and a little more) in power since 2013. Although Atishi is currently the Chief Minister, leading the House with an overwhelming majority of AAP legislators, she has made it abundantly clear that she only sits there in the interregnum, and it is Kejriwal who holds the reins of power. To further buttress Kejriwal’s pre-eminence, the electoral promises made this time are being referred to as “Kejriwal ki guarantee”.

As for the ruling party, it is defending its record of governance — what it calls the ‘Delhi model’ centred around vastly improved government schools and mohalla clinics, topped up with dollops of free electricity and water supply for those at the bottom of the economic pyramid. The broader canvas of pro-poor governance is somewhat invisible to the more affluent citizenry of Delhi, portrayed popularly as “dilwaali dilli”, happy and feisty in its spirit.

So, how is AAP defending its long tenure in power — and countering the general setting in of anti-incumbency and the corruption charges that landed then CM Kejriwal and his deputy Manisha Sisodia in jail? Has the BJP been able to launch a counter-offensive sharp enough to dislodge the incumbents? And finally, what role does the Congress play in this frayed pitch where it must oppose AAP in Delhi, but is ideologically committed to not let the BJP come to power? The dilemma for the Congress deepens further as it is the leader of the INDIA bloc, whereas its alliance partners Mamata Banerjee, Hemant Soren and Akhilesh Yadav are open in their support for Kejriwal.

The current AAP is dramatically different from what it was in 2013, when it was a new party emerging from a people’s movement against corruption, appropriately named ‘India Against Corruption’. The target of the attack then was the Congress, led by Manmohan Singh at the Centre and Sheila Dikshit in the state. The allocation of the telecom spectrum, the coal scam, then CAG Vinod Rai’s report, the mismanagement of the Commonwealth Games and finally the Nirbhaya tragedy created a popular storm against the Congress. Having grabbed power from the Congress in the national capital, Kejriwal became the face of its pro-poor governance. AAP developed national ambitions and even challenged the BJP. The party’s runaway success in Punjab was its crowning glory.

By 2024, however, it had become a far more weakened AAP, with the BJP leading an assault on the party, levying corruption charges in the ‘liquor scam’; the excise policy did not see the light of day but is presumed to have accorded partisan benefits to AAP. Even more scandalous were the social media revelations of Kejriwal’s ‘Sheesh Mahal’ — the CM’s official residence that he got renovated at a considerable cost to the exchequer. The CAG audit put the cost at Rs 33 crore, while BJP leaders claimed that it was above Rs 70 crore. Social media circulated photographs of this palatial bungalow, bringing considerable disrepute to him and his party.

The now-forgotten case of his own Rajya Sabha MP and trusted party colleague Swati Maliwal entering Kejriwal’s residence and levying charges of misconduct by his personal assistant did further damage. Kejriwal was quick to make a turnaround — he resigned from the CM’s post soon after his release from jail and vacated the bungalow. Since then, he has returned to the people’s court and his party cadres. The resignation also reduced the likelihood of Kejriwal’s confrontation with the Lieutenant Governor (L-G), since it is now a milder and younger Atishi dealing with the L-G.

The BJP’s offensive has largely been a personal attack on Kejriwal — over corruption charges and for pretending to be an “aam aadmi” whereas he lived the life of royalty. The BJP also believes that there is a definite anti-incumbency against Kejriwal, especially as the party had a steady base of over 38 per cent vote back even in 2020, when it won only eight seats. Besides, nearly 17 seats were won or lost by very narrow margins at the time, despite an AAP wave. Given the BJP’s extraordinary performance in Delhi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party and its cadres have been in a buoyant mood — although the party has lost some of its sheen among poorvanchalis and the upper castes with unbecoming comments from Shehzad Poonawalla.

Launching Parvesh Verma to confine Kejriwal to his own seat has been key to the BJP’s strategy. Its offer of Rs 2,500 to women — Rs 400 more than what AAP currently gives to them — is another significant element. For the woman voter, it is not just about which party gives more money; rather, it is about whom she trusts more.

Kejriwal’s government has given women free bus passes and posted women marshals for security. Besides, women consider good schools an investment in their children’s future, a rare opportunity for social mobility for the underclass in the city. The “Kejriwal guarantee” now talks about jobs for the youth.

Lastly, the Congress seems weak on many counts — it is not seen as the party that can dislodge AAP. Rahul Gandhi has not been personal in his attack on Kejriwal. Many of its leaders such as Arvinder Singh Lovely or the poorvanchali Mahabal Mishra have made their home in other political parties. A sombre Sandeep Dikshit has been criticising AAP, but is largely seen as the third candidate in the New Delhi constituency. Yet, it’s a city that elects different parties for the Centre and the state and will have to contend with pitched battles in at least 17 of the 70 seats.