Gaza hopes to pick up the pieces

THE Gaza ceasefire agreement, announced on social media by US President Donald Trump, came into force on October 10. The initial phase aims to pause the hostilities in a genocidal war of retribution by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) that began after the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

This Trump-brokered ceasefire is to be cautiously welcomed for one overriding reason – and that is the humanitarian dimension. Two years of a relentless war and the indiscriminate, disproportionate attacks on civilians in Palestine to neutralise Hamas have killed over 67,000 Palestinians; about 2,000 Israelis, including civilians and soldiers, have lost their lives. According to UN agencies, humanitarian organisations and local authorities, around two million Palestinians (of a total of 5.5 million) have been displaced.

Gaza has been reduced to rubble; famine conditions prevail, with children and women bearing the brunt of the Israeli onslaught. With the ceasefire coming into effect, displaced Palestinians are returning to areas like Gaza City and Sheikh Radwan. Tens of thousands of Palestinians are trekking north along roads like Al-Rashid from southern camps such as Nuseirat and Khan Younis, carrying their meagre belongings amid a ruined landscape.

With 600 aid trucks now entering Gaza daily, the ceasefire will mitigate — to some extent — the famine declared in August and described by the UN as a “man-made catastrophe.” This surge in aid, coupled with the reopening of Rafah and other crossings, could alleviate suffering for Gaza’s almost two million residents,

80 per cent of whom are displaced.

The next phase of the ceasefire agreement — also being referred to as the Gaza peace deal — involves hostage and prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas. It is expected that beginning today, Hamas will release 20 Israeli hostages and the mortal remains of the 28 deceased. In the reciprocal arrangement, Israel is preparing to free about 250 long-term Palestinian prisoners (serving life sentences) and around 1,700 detainees arrested in Gaza since October 7, 2023, including women and children.

If this proposed exchange takes place without any hurdles or surprises, President Trump is likely to arrive in the region to a thunderous roll of drums as the peacemaker par excellence. Norway will be alerted to look no further; next year’s “Nobel Peace Prize winner” will emerge in the land of Bethlehem, and the Magi of this century will assemble in TV studios the world over, led by Fox News and its global clones.

But alas, the reality is grim. Equitable and sustainable peace as well as socio-political justice for the Palestinians will remain elusive, while the optics of a historic breakthrough enabled by Trump will flood chanceries and media platforms.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has been brought to the ceasefire table kicking and screaming and there have been reports of the IDF firing on returning Palestinians. Hardliners in Israel are determined to deny any concession to Palestine that will usher in peace and prosperity, as envisioned by Trump and the regional partners (Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia). Once the Israeli hostages are safely back, it is probable that there would be attempts to scuttle the peace deal.

However, one must hope for the best, and a more positive scenario can unfold in this manner. If cessation of hostilities, hostage-prisoner release and troop withdrawal proceed smoothly in the initial phase, this would lay the foundation for tentative trust in the next phase — full demilitarisation and reconstruction of the wasteland that is Palestine/Gaza.

The Palestinian Authority’s potential role in governance could marginalise Hamas, thereby aligning with Israel’s long-term security goals and the US-led call for a two-state framework. But this is a long way off, for the immediate priority is clearing the rubble, finding more bodies and rebuilding Gaza. The bill for this could be upwards of $50 billion.

The most authoritative estimates for reconstructing Gaza after the war place the total cost at $53.2 billion over the next 10 years. This figure comes from the joint Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment by the United Nations, European Union and World Bank, covering damages from October 2023 to October 2024. It includes physical infrastructure repair ($29.9 billion), economic and social recovery ($19.1 billion) and environmental cleanup ($1.9 billion), with $20 billion needed in the first three years alone. It is not clear at this stage as to how this money would be made available to Palestine.

The more disconcerting feature of this peace deal is that it has been framed as a US-led initiative supported by regional heavyweights — outside of the UN framework. A multinational military monitoring force including 200 US troops will be positioned in Israel to establish a coordination centre to oversee Hamas compliance from bases outside Gaza. An interim technical governance team to be led by former UK PM Tony Blair is in the pipeline and this reeks of neo-imperialism, Trump style.

With the UN Security Council in virtual paralysis, given the bitter discord between the US and the Russia-China dyad, the world is witnessing extended geopolitical dissonance. This has been exacerbated by the Trump-driven tariff turbulence. Yet Trump is to be accorded one cheer (not three) — for bringing a reluctant Netanyahu to the negotiating table.

India has supported the agreement, with PM Modi congratulating Netanyahu on the activation of the first phase. India has been invited by the US and Egypt to attend a follow-up ‘Gaza Truce Retreat’ aimed at discussing ceasefire monitoring and reconstruction.

New Delhi’s pedigree in complex peacekeeping operations (going back to the 1953 Korean War armistice and subsequent UN missions) and proven disaster relief competence can contribute to the international rebuilding efforts that Gaza desperately needs.

The ceasefire pact is tentative, fragile and prone to setbacks. This is the third major truce since the war began in October 2023 — first in November 2023 and later in January 2025 — and both collapsed. Will October 2025 be auspicious? The jury is out — the talks on demilitarisation and governance are imminent, even as Hamas has rejected ‘foreign guardianship’.

Bringing this complex ceasefire-cum-peace deal under the UN aegis would be highly desirable, but the feasibility of such a transition is very low. Trump wants peace, and “King Canute’s courtiers” will proclaim that it has indeed arrived and the Star of Bethlehem is glowing over the rubble of Gaza.

C Uday Bhaskar is Director, Society for Policy Studies.