Global lessons in realpolitik

THE thing about foreign policy is, that it changes faster than Chandigarh’s fickle weather and you have no idea how to deal with an approaching storm until it bursts over your head.

Something like this happened in Kananaskis last week. Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled 11,056 km from Delhi, via Cyprus, to attend one session at the G7 summit where some of the world’s most powerful men had gathered — except Donald Trump left early because Israel had bombed Iran and Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir, it later turned out, was showing up at the White House for lunch. (And yes, it was halal.)

Here, then, are three learnings from the global mood change this week :

First, like Arjuna in the Mahabharata, keep your eye on the eye of the fish. From revving up the 2019 slogan, ‘Abki baar, Trump sarkar,’ to turning down Trump’s invite to drop in to see him in Washington DC, has been a long and sobering journey for PM Modi. The key lesson in realpolitik here is that there are no permanent friends or enemies, just permanent interests.

The PM is a master of this game on the domestic politics front. He is able to beautifully manage the contradictions, for instance, between his avowed admiration for Dalit leader BR Ambedkar and his party’s earlier discomfort with a caste census — and yet, after much badgering from the Congress, such a caste enumeration was announced.

It may well be that the BJP can wrest the credit for this, especially since the Congress remains more or less disorganised. The PM has well managed the dissonance on this matter at home. He must do the same on the foreign affairs front.

The second much-needed change is the ability to be realistic. Trump’s feting of Pakistan’s two top generals in the White House — army chief Asim Munir and ISI chief Gen Asim Malik — is proof the US is checking out Pakistan as a potential frontline state with Iran, in case the conflict with Israel escalates. Besides, Pakistan has an ingress with China like few others.

America understands well the nature of power. By ignoring the Pakistani political leadership and talking to its military establishment, Trump is making clear he has no time for frills. He knows that if anyone can deliver what he wants, it’s the military establishment in Rawalpindi.

Does this mean that America no longer cares to believe the Indian position, which is that Pakistan is a sponsor of cross-border terrorism? Or that it no longer believes that the Pahalgam attack was carried out by Pakistani handlers?

The answer is both yes and no. The US surely continues to agree with India’s analysis of Pakistan’s sponsorship of cross-border terror into India. Unfortunately, its need of Pakistan at this moment seems to be more important than the hurt it may have caused Indians who thought that Trump and Modi would always be fast friends.

The point here is that Trump believes he can be best friends with both Asim Munir and Modi — in fact, not just Trump, all big powers have the ability to deal with nations and leaders it may not like much and who may not like each other. That’s a necessary ingredient of big power-ship.

Which is why the international community is probably mystified why there’s such a storm in the Delhi teacup about so-called US “mediation” on the India-Pakistan May 10 ceasefire, especially when everyone knows that US diplomats were separately talking to both Indians and Pakistanis to call it off.

Which is how it exactly turned out, in the aftermath of the IAF bombing 11 Pakistani airfields on May 10 : When the Americans called their counterparts in Delhi, telling them to end the pulverisation of Pakistan, they were told they should tell the Pakistani side to call the Indian side to make that request. Which is what the Pakistani DGMO did later that day.

The third change in the global mood this week is a strengthening of rhetoric against the Israeli bombing of Iran. Trump’s early support of Israel is giving way to a pause. Russia and China have already come out against Israel and the rest of Europe is talking once again about the need to use diplomacy. The Arab street remains deeply worried. It seems as if the world is gathering itself to prevent an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East.

In this situation, troubling questions remain over India’s abstentions both at the UN and at the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on resolutions against Israel. The answer, of course, is the personal chemistry between the PM and Benjamin Netanyahu and the consequential friendship between India and Israel. The Israeli PM called Modi and, no doubt, sought his support.

As the global order shifts again, it might be time for New Delhi to expand its relationships with all the powers again, all around, and return to a multi-alignment it had once so carefully crafted and maintained for decades. Certainly, there is much to promote the idea of allying yourself with a strong power and riding on its coattails in the acquisition of strength — with the US, for example — instead of spreading yourself too thin among a galaxy of powers.

The problem with alliances, of course, is the danger of becoming a camp follower. On the other hand, walking alone, as Rabindranath Tagore once proposed, is hardly a mantra in the 21st century. India’s ideal should be to make friends and influence people — to try and change, like Mary Poppins once said, the direction of the wind in its favour.