How the AAP bubble burst

Facing its stiffest challenge in Delhi so far, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was trounced by the BJP in the Assembly elections. The outcome ended a long run of the party led by Arvind Kejriwal, a former bureaucrat who won the hearts and minds of Delhi’s voters in 2015 with his messianic zeal to fight corruption. His curious amalgam of politics that blended civic activism and pro-poor welfare programmes with a subtle play on religion and caste saw his party win the 2020 polls as well, with the BJP and the Congress failing to dent his popularity.

Keen on expanding his party’s footprint, Kejriwal led AAP to victory in the 2022 Punjab elections as well. His success rattled his rivals, who grudgingly recognised his potential to tower above discredited or lacklustre regional leaders who were largely legatees. He could justifiably claim to be self-made. This claim, as also others that gave him an outsized standing in national politics, dissipated as the Delhi verdict came out on February 8. Kejriwal lost his own seat to a BJP dynast, Parvesh Verma, son of former CM Sahib Singh Verma.

Arrested in a money laundering case linked to the Delhi excise policy scam, Kejriwal remained behind bars for several months. After his release on bail, he stepped down as the CM with an air of martyrdom that he hoped would help him in the 2025 elections. His close aide, Manish Sisodia, who piloted AAP’s flagship health and education programmes, was also arrested and kept in custody, as was another ex-minister, Satyendra Jain. Sisodia and Jain lost, while another former minister, Kailash Gahlot, who jumped ship and joined the BJP, ended on the winning side. The only AAP top gun to win was the outgoing CM, Atishi, who was not named in any graft case. Virtually the entire AAP leadership was wiped out, a reflection of the party’s loss of credibility.

In the maelstrom of a bitterly contested poll between the BJP and AAP, the Congress upped the ante against Kejriwal but was unusually reticent about the BJP. Indeed, its Delhi leaders spoke the BJP’s language in assailing Kejriwal. Sandeep Dikshit, son of former Congress CM Sheila Dikshit, led from the front, giving the impression that he was more interested in avenging his late mother’s defeat by AAP than winning seats for the grand old party. Rahul Gandhi acceded to the wishes of the party’s Delhi leaders when they threatened him with an ultimatum: Confront Kejriwal or face a revolt.

Kejriwal’s tenures, particularly the one that ended last year, were turbulent as the Centre decided to get tough with him and challenged every policy of his, bringing his governance to a grinding halt. The situation would not have been different had he won another term, perhaps a reason why some of his voters opted for the BJP, persuaded by the double-engine narrative.

Delhi may look tiny compared to bigger states that seem more precious to the BJP. But the Capital is significant because it is the centre of authority and power that can hold states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra in thrall.

The BJP’s sweep was all the more significant because in keeping with the Modi regime’s reluctance to nurture regional leaders, the party did not announce its CM candidate in Delhi. Not that it lacked local leaders in the Capital. It identified those with pockets of influence so that various communities could be wooed. Manoj Tiwari focused on Brahmins, Parvesh Verma and Gahlot reached out to Jats, Dushyant Gautam catered to Dalits and so on. It was nearly impossible to crack this caste construct that did away with the vexatious problem of factionalism.

Privately, the BJP never underestimated Kejriwal’s potential to become a national leader. The message from the Punjab victory was not lost on the party. The Delhi triumph can boost the BJP’s prospects of wresting Punjab from AAP with a regional ally in the 2027 elections.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the attack on corruption-tainted AAP. The focus was on Kejriwal’s ‘Sheesh Mahal’, the CM’s official bungalow on whose renovation crores of rupees were spent. Charges of financial irregularities in civic works undertaken both by the state government as well as AAP-controlled municipal bodies further undermined Kejriwal’s probity.

The BJP also deftly appropriated Kejriwal’s welfare programmes, equalling his announcements measure for measure. The guarantees ran in tandem with the BJP’s strategy to make its workers fan out into resettlement colonies to ‘unmask’ Kejriwal.

The high-decibel campaign worked. In contrast, Kejriwal’s tactic to own up Hindutva in his own way fell flat. It proved that a leader’s success in purloining his rival’s agenda and dressing it up as his own depends on his credibility.

Kejriwal’s dalliance with Hindutva had another fallout. It angered and alienated Muslims, who saw AAP as a perfect foil for the BJP. Kejriwal’s indifference to the plight of Muslims in the 2020 communal riots and Atishi’s iterations against Rohingya migrants fuelled Muslim anger against the party.

AAP’s rout could lead to more trouble for the INDIA bloc and its constituents. Bihar goes to the polls later this year and West Bengal in 2026. While the Congress’ alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal is still intact in Bihar, Bengal presents a not-so-happy picture, with the ruling Trinamool Congress ploughing a lone furrow.