India must adjust to a whole new world

In the chemistry of diplomacy, the camaraderie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump provides a constructive environment for relations between India and the US. Such rapport eases tensions and builds trust, although diplomacy cannot depend entirely on leadership-level chemistry. Relations between India and the US, fortuitously, are built also on several years of evolution in multiple areas of mutual benefit, strategic convergence and a solid framework of public support as well as national interest. But the world we live in is a fragmenting world, and complacency is outmoded.

The realities we confront today are very different from those during Trump’s first presidency. The dynamics of global diplomacy have changed. War and conflict, predatory competition, trade tensions and the waning attractions of globalisation define geopolitics. Trump has come to power on his ‘America First’ agenda, he is playing to his MAGA (Make America Great Again) base and riding a tidal wave of populism and nativism in the American body politic.

The outcomes of the Modi visit have been analysed across the media, and it is time for us to dwell on the impact of a Trumpian world on India. It is not that President Trump does not value the strategic partnership with India. During PM Modi’s visit, it was clear that both sides are keen on elevating military cooperation to embrace various domains, including air, land, sea, space and cyberspace. There are plans to expand defence sales and co-production with the potential inclusion of advanced aviation systems like the F-35 jets. There is also the shared strategic vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Trade and immigration offer more complex challenges.

President Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs will fundamentally disrupt norms of international trade; there will be increased business uncertainties and a deepening of geopolitical divides. Nations will have to reassess their trading relations with the US. Established supply chains may be affected, as also global economic stability. The imposition of US tariffs will impact production costs that will affect consumers and contribute to higher inflation. Of course, as the US diversifies its supply chains away from China, there are opportunities for our textiles, electronics and engineering goods sectors. However, Trump’s protectionist approach to economic ties with the world poses challenges for India, and we should not downplay them.

There is a need for careful negotiation to balance our economic interests while maintaining and strengthening our strategic partnership with the US. The new reciprocal tariff policy should serve as a catalyst for India to rationalise its own tariffs, and for trade negotiations leading to a bilateral trade agreement that both countries want to conclude before the end of this year. Reaching such an agreement will be a true test of our negotiating skills. In the face of coercive American moves, our challenge will be to maximise the zone of potential agreement, as it is called in the science of negotiation.

On immigration, the summary manner in which America is expelling illegal Indian immigrants, bound in shackles, has not gone down well. The deportation procedures followed have sparked significant controversy. There is a feeling that our nationals have been inhumanly treated. There is a risk that this could be interpreted as a failure to protect our citizens abroad. The ability of a nation to safeguard its citizens internationally is a component of smart power. Legal immigration and H-1B visa issues can no doubt be managed well by the two countries. Our problem is how the human trafficking industry can be cracked down upon effectively by our agencies.

Another issue of concern is Trump’s warning to the BRICS nations. He is playing the global hegemon on the power of the US dollar and threatening to serve a death warrant on BRICS if its members pursue alternative financial systems that deter the dollar’s dominance. South Africa, a BRICS member, has come under a cloud because of land policies that allegedly affect the white Afrikaner minority, something that Elon Musk highlights as “racist ownership laws” (Musk has also faced challenges for his Starlink project in South Africa). This has led to a halting of all US financial aid to South Africa and Trump’s decision not to attend the forthcoming G20 Summit in Johannesburg. What this demonstrates is that Trump is ready to sacrifice diplomatic relations if policy ‘principles’ are seen as threatened.

There is much talk of a multipolar world today. In an interview, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged this when he said, “It’s not normal for the world to have a unipolar power. That was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet.” This may sound soothing, but an ‘America First’ world view has inbuilt presumptions about American primacy. And the warning to BRICS is a wake-up call for plurilateral groupings, too. Exist if you must, but play according to American rules.

In the post-World War II world, America was what some call a ‘benign hegemon’. Judging by statements from President Trump and Vice-President Vance, it is recasting its image as a hegemon that sets new rules for the rest of the world, where American slash-and-burn self-interest and interpretations of morality set global parameters, that America will not be “ripped off” by allies and adversaries alike. This is why some term the new Trump presidency as ‘imperial’.

The ‘stark strategic realities’ that US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth spoke of recently suggest that America will withdraw from the defence of Europe, leaving this responsibility to the Europeans themselves, that peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict means that Russia is the stronger side and that Ukraine cannot be a part of NATO or seek a return of territory taken by Russia, that Palestine and Palestinians are a lost cause since Israel is the champion in a winner-take-all world. As far as China is concerned, even as trade competition will be fierce, Trump seems ready to extend the olive branch to President Xi Jinping on other fronts, or at least, engage with him in a sustained manner. There are no friends and enemies in this scenario, only transactions to be made and deals to be secured. India must set its diplomatic compass accordingly.