Kalam’s wisdom vs Modi’s gambit in Myanmar

THEINGI is somewhat of a novelty among the profusion of Indian and Filipino employees at a five-star hotel in Abu Dhabi. What makes her stand out is that she is part of a new influx of expatriate workers from Myanmar to the Gulf.

A trickle of job seekers from Myanmar to oil-rich employment markets, which began with the regime change four and a half years ago, is rapidly rising, with much of Myanmar falling to rebels in a civil war.

Jobs for Indians are not nearly as threatened in countries like the United Arab Emirates by hospitality industry guest workers from Myanmar as they are for Pakistani and Bangladeshi taxi drivers because of organised recruitment from Africa in recent years. But India faces the prospect of losing out to the UAE, for instance, as a reliable and broadly diverse partner for Myanmar in the midst of its domestic strife.

Unimaginative flip-flops in New Delhi's policymaking structure threaten India's hitherto stable relations with this largely reclusive country which critically straddles Southeast and South Asia.

Whoever advised Prime Minister Narendra Modi to dwell on elections in Myanmar in such detail as he did during his August 31 meeting with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, in Tianjin only contributed to this looming threat.

If only Modi's top aides had gone through the archives of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), they would have come across a captivating anecdote about what happened when Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono met his de facto counterpart Than Shwe on a visit to Myanmar in 2006. Their one-on-one meeting was to last 45 minutes.

Yudhoyono committed the grave folly of telling Myanmar's strongman how he had transformed from an army general to a democratic leader, defeating the sitting President in Indonesia's first direct presidential election.

He then advised Than Shwe how he could do the same in Myanmar. End of meeting. When Yudhoyono concluded his advice seven minutes into the meeting, Than Shwe stood up and held out his hand, indicating that their meeting was being terminated. We will meet for dinner, the host told the visiting President.

President APJ Abdul Kalam was infinitely smarter when he went on a state visit to Myanmar one week after Yudhoyono was snubbed by Than Shwe. Kalam heard about the snub in Yangon. In a rare fit of anger, he came down on accompanying MEA officials who had prepared Kalam's talking points with Myanmar's generals about Aung San Suu Kyi, democracy deficit and elections.

He impromptu relied on his instincts about what he would tell the Myanmar leaders. Than Shwe's meeting with Kalam overran by 45 minutes.

Since Kalam was a bachelor, the general sought his indulgence and said he would like to bring the First Lady, Kyaing Kyaing, to that evening's state banquet. The best part of the anecdote is that both the strongman and the First Lady were swept off their feet by Kalam and they asked many questions to the President on state and non-state matters.

Because he talked so much at the table, Kalam could not eat his dinner properly. On the way back to his hotel, Kalam asked his Chief Liaison Officer to arrange for some food to be delivered to his room.

The MEA's readout of Modi's Tianjin meeting hoped "the forthcoming elections in Myanmar will be held in a fair and inclusive manner involving all stakeholders…India supports a Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned peace process, for which peaceful dialogue and consultation is the only way forward."

Modi called for "diplomacy and dialogue" in Ukraine while talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin three years ago. Ever since, sycophants on Raisina Hill, the seat of power in New Delhi, are prone to introducing similar empty words in Modi's talking points with foreigners.

There is a biting irony that although Myanmar has no free press or other outlets that exist in open societies, more information was forthcoming through the public domain in Yangon than in New Delhi about the Modi-Hlaing meeting.

The state-owned Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper put Modi's gratuitous comments on Myanmar's upcoming polls in the best possible light. It said India would send election monitors during the campaign and voting.

India was silent on this, presumably because western countries have rubbished the election exercise. Nine national parties have agreed to participate in the exercise and at provincial levels, 55 others have registered to take part. India must wholeheartedly support the process instead of hedging or looking over its shoulders at the human rights industry.

There was much more in Myanmar's state media than what India was willing to reveal about the highest-level bilateral interaction three weeks ago. The Global New Light of Myanmar, for example, spoke about views exchanged "on measures to ensure peace and stability in the border regions of both countries."

It is a euphemism for Myanmar's ongoing efforts, away from the spotlight, to defuse a clash of interests between India and China on exploiting rare earths in Myanmar. In the interest of regional stability, competing interests on rare earths must be managed from getting out of hand.

The rebel Kachin Independence Army (KIA) now controls nearly half of the entire world's deposits of minerals used in wind turbines and electric vehicles. As per the Chinese government's customs statistics, imports of rare earths from Myanmar dropped by 89 per cent between October 2024 and February this year.

Global mining industry analysts have reported teams from public sector company Indian Rare Earths Limited visiting Kachin province in the expectation that rare earths trade can be snatched from Chinese hands. The junta in Yangon has been advising New Delhi that it is a foolhardy exercise and that competition with China for Kachin's resources will add to its woes in the North-East.

Dealing with the KIA could also cause the secession of Myanmar's rebel provinces, according to government sources in Yangon. Adding to the unpredictability is the UAE's decision to wade into Myanmar's troubled waters. Dubai has the legendary Midas touch and hopes to benefit from Myanmar's untapped wealth, working with both New Delhi and Beijing. The UAE and Myanmar established diplomatic relations five years ago.

The arrival of those, like waitress Theingi in Abu Dhabi, is only one element in the potentially lucrative bilateral relations.

KP Nayar is a strategic analyst.