Kashmir’s normalcy, Pakistan’s turmoil
A key development indicator is the labour force participation rate (LFPR) of women
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Everyone must watch the talk delivered by Pakistan’s army chief, Gen Asim Munir on April 14-16 at the Annual Convention of Overseas Pakistanis. It was certainly the most extreme speech I have seen by any leader, anywhere. Many have linked, or believe, that this “hate” speech was the green signal the Pahalgam terrorists were waiting for before they carried out their massacre.
The speech certainly outlined the battle between secular India and theocratic Pakistan. In Munir's narrow world-view, there is a lack of connection, or commonality, between the citizens of India and Pakistan. In fact the reality is quite the opposite, especially in Punjab.
Gen Munir’s first gross miscalculation is that he addressed his remarks to overseas Pakistani residents. But in the audience pictures, you will be hard-pressed to find a smile of approval to what Munir was saying, let alone cheer. Many of these overseas Pakistanis have worked, lived and roomed with the very same people that Munir was saying were Pakistan's born enemy, i.e. Indians — some even have inter-married. Hence, the lack of applause, if not downright embarrassment, perhaps even contempt.
Gen Munir’s second miscalculation was the expectation of support his Muslim terrorists would get from India’s Muslims. Instead, there was overwhelming condemnation of their unsparing brutality as well as of Pakistan, the country they came from. The response by Indian Muslims, both leaders and ordinary people, across the country as well as in Kashmir, has been most pronounced in the outright condemnation of Munir’s hate speech.
It is likely that this response was not anticipated by the terrorists and their political handlers. Perhaps their warped world-view also does not allow them to comprehend fundamental and structural divergences between the economies of India and Pakistan.
This process of change has been long in the making. In 1985, Pakistan's per capita income (Penn World Tables, 2017 PPP), relative to India reached a peak of 2.2, i.e. Pakistan's per capita (pc) income was more than twice that of India. In 2024, at the time of its 13th IMF loan since 1991 (the last time India got an economic loan from the IMF), Pakistan's pc income was reduced to 60 per cent of India's level. This continuous fall in Pakistan's living standards, especially relative to India, partially explains Munir's desperation in appealing to the only factor he thinks reflects the welfare of both domestic and foreign Pakistanis — religious fanaticism and Kashmir.
Along with these Grand Canyon gaps in performance, it is the fullest integration of Kashmir with the rest of India that seems to have affected Munir the most. Today India is in the midst of major trade deals with the US, UK and the EU, while Pakistan begs for Chinese financial help, debt and armaments alongside the 25th loan from the IMF — the highest for any country ever.
Meanwhile, PM Narendra Modi, with his visit to Saudi Arabia, is demonstrating India’s closest linkages with the Arab world than at any time before — traditionally Pakistan’s friends and allies.
The tragically explicit copycat behaviour of the Pahalgam terrorists with Hamas terrorists attack in Israel on October 7, 2023 was not missed -- the same terrorist playbook. At the time of the Hamas terrorist attack, Israel was in the final stages of negotiating with Saudi Arabia, a complete normalisation of relations.
However, the real Munir-Pakistan misjudgment was not about bilateral country aggregates, but what is happening in Kashmir itself. It is not just India that has economically leapt way past Pakistan. Government initiatives, particularly after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, have substantially improved the normalisation of Kashmir. It is this integration and development that Munir and his army have completely missed.
Why did Pakistan stir up the terrorist pot again? That’s a question every Indian — Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Isaai — is asking. Was it to provide an alternative to the distress caused by the relative decline of Pakistan? Note, that the standing of the Indian economy and polity was at its peak and that of Pakistan at its trough, when Munir made his speech. One week later, on April 22, the terrorists struck.
Most, if not all of the above, is reasonably well known. Something not as well known or hardly discussed is the stupendous strides that J&K's economy has made, especially since the abrogation of Article 370.
A key development indicator is the labour force participation rate (LFPR) of women. Its documentation is more than a cottage industry in India and subject to critical review, but not critical analysis. In a detailed study (‘Labour Markets in India: Measurement in Times of Structural Change’), my co-authors Karan Bhasin, Tirtha Das and I explored the pattern of FLFP in India and rest of the world.
We found the female LFPR in India in 2023-24 to be close to the average of South and East-Asian economies. The average reported in the table (see here) is for labour, excluding unpaid family labour — this is not my criteria, but that of many detractors of India's development path.
The national average hides significant state-level divergences. Observe the pattern documented in the table for the years 1999, 2011, 2019 and 2023. Tamil Nadu and Kerala represent two states whose progressive development experience is applauded and noted by all. J&K and Assam are two states which have suffered the strains of civil disturbances and terrorism for most of the last 25 years. Also reported in the table is the weighted national average.
The long journey to normalcy in J&K is most sharply observed in agricultural year 2019-20; and 2023-24 in Assam. In 1999-2000, J&K had a female LFPR of only 6.8 per cent, less than a quarter of the national average; in 2011, LFPR was well below the national average; in 2019, female LFPR was equal to the national average; and in 2023, J&K's female LFPR was 52.3 per cent — higher than the southern and all-India stars Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as the second highest in India (highest was neighbouring Himachal Pradesh with FLFPR of 60.5 per cent). All this despite average levels of education in J&K and Assam, while the two southern states top the charts.
There can be many explanations for the heinous terrorist attack on innocent tourists in Pahalgam. Prominent amongst the explanations is the deep feeling of insecurity suffered by the Pakistani army as it has steered the economy and the polity into a deep black hole. I have tried to document this tragedy with these two important indicators of welfare.
Views are personal
Surjit S Bhalla is chairperson, Technical Expert Group, Household Income Survey for India.
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