Private agencies in space race has its perils

THE public spat between US President Donald Trump and his former advisor Elon Musk, triggered by the latter’s criticism of the Congressional tax bill, has captured global attention. After Trump threatened to terminate government contracts and subsidies to Musk-owned SpaceX, the maverick billionaire issued a counter-threat to ‘decommission’ the Dragon spacecraft used by NASA. Musk made a U-turn and withdrew his threat a few hours later.

Trump’s warning to cancel government contracts to SpaceX and Musk’s threat to withdraw Dragon from service — both have serious implications for the space sector in America and globally.

An immediate point of concern was the flight of the Falcon rocket and crew spacecraft Dragon to fly the four-member crew, including Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla of India, to the International Space Station (ISS). Though Musk could not have possibly carried out his threat to decommission Dragon at such short notice, given the complex web of contracts involving multiple players, the threat did create temporary uncertainty and anxiety. In a related development, Trump has withdrawn the nomination of Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, a billionaire aerospace entrepreneur, was widely known to be Musk’s pick for the top job.

Unlike the 1984 space flight of the first Indian astronaut, Rakesh Sharma — conducted free of cost as per a bilateral deal between India and the Soviet Union — Shukla is going to the ISS in a private mission costing each passenger $55-60 million (about Rs 550 crore). The flight results from a set of agreements involving the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), NASA, SpaceX and Axiom Space. NASA operates the ISS, while it has hired the services of SpaceX for transporting astronauts to the space station, and Axiom Space provides astronaut training and other facilitating infrastructure.

Shukla’s co-passengers on this trip are two astronauts from Poland and Hungary, and the flight is commanded by former NASA astronaut and Axiom official Peggy Whitson. Astronauts from Canada, Israel, Spain, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Sweden have flown to the ISS during previous missions of Axiom Space.

Since the decommissioning of the Space Shuttle programme of NASA over two decades ago, SpaceX has become a centrepiece in America’s space infrastructure. The company is responsible for satellite launches, crewed missions to the ISS as well as the launch of national security payloads for the Pentagon and intelligence agencies. The total value of contracts awarded to SpaceX, according to reports in the American press, is $22 billion. Several important missions of NASA, like the launch of the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope in May 2027 and future lunar missions, depend on the launch services of SpaceX. NASA’s next-generation Space Launch System is running behind schedule and faces budgetary cuts.

If Trump follows through on threats to slash contracts to Musk’s companies, it will not only slow down SpaceX’s growth but also create gaps in the national capabilities of America. SpaceX and NASA are interdependent. There are other players like Boeing and Blue Origin too, but they are yet to reach the same level as SpaceX.

The overdependence of NASA on private entities like SpaceX and Axiom has global implications, including for India, as demonstrated in the brief uncertainty over the impending Axiom mission. This apart, India signed the Artemis Accords with NASA during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in June 2023. The Accords are a set of non-binding multilateral agreements launched in 2020, aimed at establishing principles for cooperative space exploration, especially concerning the Moon and Mars.

While SpaceX is not a signatory to the Accords (only national space agencies or countries can sign it), it is vital for turning the Accords’ vision into reality. SpaceX will build space vehicles and systems needed to make cooperative lunar missions possible. India and other signatories to the Accords should consider this critical role of private entities in its execution.

Musk’s threat to decommission Dragon and his conflict with Trump over space contracts should be a cause of concern globally on another count – satellite Internet services provided by Musk’s Starlink. The company has been marketing its services to security agencies and armed forces globally. In America, several military commands are said to be using Starlink services, and it has been deployed in Ukraine too. Should Starlink customers trust someone like Musk who can threaten his own President and national space agency to decommission a vital space asset?

It is known that Starlink’s global satellite-based Internet service can be turned off or on in specific regions at will. Ironically, amid the Trump-Musk spat, the Central Government cleared Starlink to provide its services in India.

The conflict between Trump and Musk, while rooted primarily in politics and ego clashes, raises larger strategic questions for national space agencies. It underscores the risks and implications of relying heavily on billionaire space entrepreneurs like Musk or Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin) for critical national and international space objectives.

National and space agencies like ISRO, European Space Agency (ESA) and Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency should watch out and chalk their future collaborations with America accordingly. The European Commission is already emphasising ‘strategic autonomy’ in its space plans. The dependence of European countries on Falcon 9 of SpaceX has led to calls for reducing reliance on US launchers. France and Germany are pushing for a Europe-led mega-constellation to compete with Starlink. It is being realised that sovereign control is a must since Starlink controls vast real-time data networks.

Musk’s influence over NASA’s capabilities is a reminder that space access sovereignty is essential for every spacefaring nation. It is a wake-up call that space is not insulated from political power games. ISRO must diversify partnerships, strengthen its own launch ecosystem and advocate a global space governance framework to ensure that the future of space does not rest in the hands of a few powerful individuals. Technological sovereignty should be kept in mind as India also plans to open its space sector to private players.

Dinesh C Sharma is a science commentator.