Putin firmly spells out Russia’s red lines

The much-awaited Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, held in Anchorage on August 15, ended without a concrete peace agreement or a tentative ceasefire regarding the war in Ukraine. It has been described as ‘inconclusive,’ despite the assertive pre-summit claims by Trump, who had warned of “severe consequences” if Putin did not agree to his ceasefire deal.

The summit was rich in optics. The Russian President was given a red-carpet welcome by his US host and the Putin plane was escorted by US fighters — a special ceremonial honour extended to select allies and close partners. For a leader who till recently was denigrated as a pariah for his invasion of Ukraine and deemed to be ‘isolated’, the Alaska summit is a personal vindication for President Putin. In the media interaction where both leaders made brief remarks, it was evident that Putin was the more assured of the two and firm in outlining Moscow’s red lines, even while being courteous.

What is instructive is that while there was no dramatic breakthrough over the Ukraine issue — the slender silver lining is that there was no breakdown either in the troubled and complex US-Russia relationship. A reset of Washington-Moscow ties may be on the cards, with significant implications for India and China.

The US-Russia rapprochement is important in the larger global strategic context, given that these two nations have more than 90 per cent of the world’s nuclear weapon arsenal and had held their previous summit-level meeting in June 2021 (between then US President Joe Biden and Putin). Since then, bilateral relations have soured over Ukraine and other issues. This discord has resulted in serial suspension of/withdrawal from previous agreements, thereby diluting the sanctity of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) treaties and related protocols.

While there was no explicit reference to WMD issues, both leaders described the nearly three-hour meeting in Alaska as ‘productive’ and claimed that progress was made on unspecified issues. However, no binding commitments were announced, with Trump emphasising that “there’s no deal until there’s a deal.” He added that a few key issues, including one major sticking point (will Ukraine have to cede territory?), remained unresolved. Putin indicated that an ‘agreement’ was reached to “pave the path toward peace in Ukraine” but provided no details. He reiterated Russia’s stance that ‘root causes’ like NATO expansion had to be addressed.

The major change unveiled in Alaska is that a ceasefire has been replaced by a quest for peace with Kyiv in the loop. An encouraging signal is that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will travel to Washington today to arrive at a consensual modus vivendi and seek a ‘lasting peace’ that will bring closure to a long and costly war.

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in late February, 2022, continues to take a heavy toll on human lives and infrastructure in both nations. During this period, over a million Russian troops have been killed or injured and Ukraine’s figure is about half a million. Trump made a reference to the death toll in this war and reiterated his resolve to enable a ‘deal’ that would bring relief to the millions affected by the hostilities.

On the day the summit was held, Ukrainian military strikes hit the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region and the Olya port in Astrakhan. Officials claimed that Russia had fired a ballistic missile into the Dnipropetrovsk region in eastern Ukraine, killing one person and wounding others, while a drone damaged civilian infrastructure and caused a fire in the Sumy region in the northeast. In Moscow, the defence ministry said Russian troops took control of the settlement of Oleksandrohrad in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.

The outcome of the Alaska summit has considerable significance for Delhi, since Trump had imposed an additional tariff on India for its oil imports from Russia, alleging that the revenue thus generated was helping Moscow wage its war against Ukraine. Delhi has sought to highlight that it has been saddled with harsh tariffs even though it is not the only country importing energy supplies from Russia — China is the largest importer — but this has not cut much ice with Trump.

If a peace agreement can help stop the war in Ukraine, the rationale for penalising India would no longer exist and this would be a major relief for Delhi. India has welcomed the progress made in Alaska. While the US President has hinted that the secondary sanctions will not be pursued for now, Trump’s track record for feckless inconsistency and sly ambiguity has to be factored in.

Trump has claimed that India is no longer an ‘oil client’ of Russia; Delhi has declined to comment on this assertion. The US President is peeved that his claim about stopping the war between India and Pakistan have not been validated by Delhi, and his punitive response has been the tariff tirade.

It would be prudent for India to wait and watch Ukraine-related developments over the next few weeks and be guided by its national interests, as PM Modi indicated in his Independence Day address.

Giving in to intimidation and bullying is not a viable choice. India has to chart its own course during this period of Trumpian turbulence. If the collective belt is to be tightened, so be it.

PM Modi may go to New York in September for the UN General Assembly, and a meeting with Trump could be on the cards. The PM will be in Tianjin, China, later this month for the SCO Summit, where he will meet the Russian President. The tea leaves from Alaska will be carefully read by the RIC (Russia, India, China) leaders, who are all separately seeking an acceptable deal with the petulant tariff king.