Taking stock of climate change amid pandemic

It is only the middle of 2020, and we have witnessed a series of disasters. The country has been reeling under the impact of the Covid pandemic along with its associated results such as nationwide lockdown and migrant crisis. While all this was still unfolding and people were trying to grapple with the unprecedented situation, some states had to face the additional threat of devastating cyclones. Cyclone Amphan battered West Bengal and parts of Odisha on the east coast, while the west coast had to suffer the fury of cyclone Nisarga. The two cyclonic storms came in quick succession, putting the disaster management system to test. As if all this was not enough, states in western India reported unusual infiltration — locust swarms coming from dry regions across the border. Thankfully, heatwaves have not killed people this year due to the restricted movement during the lockdown.

All these calamities may appear to be disconnected except for the fact that they have all occurred in a space of a few months, but the reality is that they all have a common thread — climate change. New zoonotic infections like Covid-19 are known to spread to humans due to destruction of natural habitats and forests. The intensity and frequency of cyclonic storms is closely linked with global and regional climatic changes. Even human migration is a result of changing weather patterns. People from drought-affected and regions with less rainfall tend to move to urban areas for livelihoods as agriculture comes under stress. A bulk of people caught in reverse movement from cities to rural areas seen during the lockdown fall in this category.

It is in this background that one has to examine an important report released by the Ministry of Earth Sciences this week — the first-ever climate change assessment report for India. It was known from past reports of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that climate change is occurring at a global scale and at hotspots like the Himalayas. Some earlier assessments have also looked at climate change specifically in the Himalayas, including the Indian Himalayan Region which covers a dozen Indian states. All these assessment reports are based on data collated from different countries. Indian scientists have contributed greatly to preparation of IPCC assessment reports. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane contribute to global climate change. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million in 1850 to 416 parts per million in February this year. These are observed changes, based on which future projects are made.

However, climate change at the regional and local levels is highly complex and tempered by factors such as local air pollution and changes in land use patterns, in addition to global greenhouse gas emissions. That’s why, it is critical to assess climate change at the national level. This is what the report published this week does. It has described observed changes over the Indian landmass and seas — precipitation, temperature, monsoon, drought, sea level, tropical cyclones and extreme weather events. Based on an analysis of these observed changes, projections for the future have been made, using model studies. This is the most comprehensive scientific report on climate change in India yet. It also shows the level of competence India has gained in climate science in the past two decades.

The report has found that India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7 degree Centigrade during 1901-2018. The sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean has risen by one degree Centigrade on average during 1951-2015. This is much higher than the global average sea surface temperature rise of 0.7 degree in the same period. The June-to-September monsoon rainfall over India has decreased by about six per cent between 1951 and 2015. The decrease has been notable in the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Western Ghats. The overall decrease in rainfall has resulted in more droughts and also increased their extent, particularly in central India. The increase in temperature is still higher — 1.3°C — in the Himalayan region, with several areas reporting declining snowfall and retreat of glaciers. However, Karakoram located at a higher elevation, has seen more winter rainfall, shielding the region from the shrinkage of glaciers, according to the report.

The report has concluded that, “India has witnessed a rise in average temperature; a decrease in monsoon precipitation; a rise in extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts, and sea levels; and an increase in the intensity of severe cyclones, alongside other changes in the monsoon system.”

It also says there is “compelling scientific evidence” to show that these changes have been influenced by human activities. The human-induced climate change in India is likely to continue in the current century. By the end of the 21st century, the average temperature over India is projected to rise by about 4.4°C relative to the 1976-2005 average under the high concentration scenario known as RCP 8.5 (representative concentration pathway).

The report is a good start if we want to address climate change. It provides scientific evidence and projections, but does not discuss likely impacts and what needs to be done to mitigate them or adapt to them. The report mentions potential implications of climate change for natural ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, infrastructure, environment, and public health, but does not elaborate.

We need more detailed sectoral studies on impacts, adaptation and mitigation. It would be in order if the Centre for Climate Change Research at the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, which has prepared the report, could coordinate research in mitigation and adaptation as well and publish sector-wise reports.

Climate change is a multi-disciplinary subject and research on its different aspects is taking place at multiple Indian institutions. Different funding agencies and ministries are involved, sometimes working at cross-purposes. It is critical that we take a coordinated approach to all aspects of climate change research, so that policy actions and programmes can be initiated at national and state levels.