The importance of being Fadnavis

TWELVE days after the BJP-led Mahayuti’s spectacular victory in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, Devendra Fadnavis has been sworn in as the Chief Minister. One would have expected celebratory fireworks after the runaway success. Instead, there was bickering and the spectacle of a sulking caretaker CM, Eknath Shinde, sheltering in his village in Satara, some distance away from his happy hunting ground, Thane.

Shinde, who broke away from his party, the Shiv Sena, on Fadnavis’ prompting and formed his own faction to head a BJP-mentored government, felt that he was entitled to continue in that role. But the BJP got 132 of the 288 seats, whereas its allies, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) got 57 and 41 seats, respectively.

A factor that was not taken into account by most pundits, except those aligned solidly with the BJP, was the role played by RSS swayamsevaks in canvassing door-to-door on behalf of BJP candidates in particular. They emphasised the slogan “Ek hain toh safe hain”, coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his campaign in the state. In Vidarbha, the BJP’s near total sweep was achieved largely due to these committed volunteers, who had fanned out from Nagpur at the bidding of their leaders. They proved their mettle, like they had done in Haryana a few months earlier.

When he engineered a split in the Shiv Sena and the NCP in recent years, Fadnavis had expected to be catapulted to the throne. His party bosses in Delhi decided otherwise. Fadnavis, like a good soldier, accepted their decision. The choice fell on Shinde, a former autorickshaw driver from the majority Maratha community with proven qualities of leadership.

Shinde turned out to be an acceptable choice. He was accessible to the public and cooperative with the senior partner in the ruling alliance. He thought that was enough to guarantee him the CM’s chair for the next five years. But the BJP top brass could not ignore Fadnavis this time.

He is far more intelligent than Shinde and more capable of plotting political moves. He was the Chief Minister from 2014 to 2019, and a very successful one at that. He concentrated on the development of infrastructure and did not interfere too much in the day-to-day working of police stations, like many state Home Ministers who preceded him were wont to do.

Shinde has reconciled himself to not becoming the CM again. He bargained for the Home portfolio, but did not succeed. In the previous Mahayuti government, Fadnavis, as Deputy CM, had kept the department under his wing. State power is reflected in the policeman’s uniform and the ability to trouble dissenters when the rulers so desire. All political parties are aware of this. Hence the eagerness to be the one to control the police.

The tussle within Mahayuti lasted far longer than was required. There was talk of Shinde being reluctant to join the government and only promising to support it from the outside. If that had happened, Ajit and his NCP faction would have enhanced their bargaining power in the government. With his party’s 41 seats, he can provide stability. Ajit had already declared his preference for Fadnavis. The finance portfolio, which he held in the previous dispensation, was his for the asking. He who controls the purse can throw some weight around. Ajit knows how to manage money.

In the meantime, the Congress is busy blaming EVMs for its defeat. There is no evidence to show that EVMs were tampered with. The Supreme Court has rightly dismissed that plea. The tactics allegedly employed by the BJP to win Assembly byelections in Uttar Pradesh, through the use of the police, cannot be tried in Maharashtra. The political culture there is different. In the UP constituency of Kundarki, where Muslims account for around 63 per cent of the population, the BJP’s Ramveer Singh emerged victorious with over 75 per cent of the votes! The seat was traditionally held by the Samajwadi Party (SP), as could be expected.

The police, who are not empowered by the Election Commission of India (ECI) to check identity cards of voters — this is a job allotted exclusively to polling officials — are reported to have ignored the ECI’s instructions in UP. They allegedly examined identity cards of would-be voters on their way to polling booths and turned away SP supporters. It should not be difficult for the ECI to verify the truth of such a serious allegation.

In my constituency, Mumbai City, the Opposition candidate, Aditya Thackeray, was expected to win, though by a reduced margin this time. That is exactly what happened. If something different to expectations has happened in other constituencies, there is no mention of such instances in the media.

Economist and political commentator Parakala Prabhakar, in an interview with Karan Thapar, said many ‘extra’ votes were cast in some constituencies between 5 pm and 11 pm, far in excess of the 1 per cent that is the norm. The ECI permits those who joined the queue at or before 6 pm to cast their votes. That overflow should be handled normally in an hour or so. The figures reported by the authorities were far in excess of the normal numbers, said Prabhakar. If that is so, the ECI, for the sake of its credibility, should investigate and clear the doubts of the public and those of a responsible commentator like Prabhakar.

Maharashtra’s Chief Electoral Officer S Chockalingam issued a statement that those waiting in the queue after 6 pm accounted for only 1 per cent of the total turnout. Apparently, ‘11 pm’ quoted by Prabhakar was the time when, according to the ECI, polling officials reached home after locking the EVMs in the strong room.