Trump, Harris poles apart on Indian govt’s human rights policies

THE Indian foreign policy establishment is keenly following the twists and turns of the US presidential campaign. Despite the rise of China and, with it, the growing global importance of its top leader, it is the US President who holds, by far, the most important political office on the planet. The US President and his administration’s decisions impact almost every country and issues of international significance, such as climate change.

President Joe Biden had been his party’s obvious candidate for this year’s presidential election. There was no hint that this would change till Biden performed disastrously in the debate with his predecessor Donald Trump on June 27. Thereafter, a growing number of Democrats demanded Biden’s replacement with another candidate because it became increasingly clear that he would lose the election. Yet, it took Biden more than three weeks to decide on giving up the candidacy. Finally, on July 21, he announced that he would not contest the election and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris as the party’s candidate. The Democrats, in disarray, quickly rallied around her and the race is now between Trump and Harris. Opinion polls indicate that both are almost tied in the swing states, where this election will really be decided.

Trump was generally leading Biden by substantial margins in the swing states by early summer. It was also becoming increasingly clear that the infirmities of age were telling on Biden. Hence, despite Trump’s conviction in the Stormy Daniels hush money case in May, his candidature continued to remain strong. Would it then be wrong to assume that some influential voices in the Indian system, especially those with intimate professional knowledge and experience of US politics, had reached the conclusion by mid-June that it was more than likely that Trump would trump Biden in the polls.

While the Ministry of External Affairs announced Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia on July 4, it is believed that the dates for the visit were finalised around June 21. With Biden’s debacle in the debate and his disinclination to give up his candidature, the impression that Trump would be the next US President would have been only strengthened before Modi’s Russia visit.

India has continuously exercised its strategic autonomy and displayed this from the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This has been evident through its increasing purchase of Russian oil. However, it is one matter to do this and quite another for Modi to visit Moscow. There would have obviously been comfort in doing so if the assessment was that Trump would be back in the White House in January next year. And, this was because it is known that his views on the Ukraine issue are, at least, till now, at great variance with Biden’s.

The race for the Oval Office has entirely changed with Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate. It can no longer be assumed that Trump will win the election. Hence, is Modi’s proposed visit to Ukraine later this month a hedging exercise? Harris is likely to remain strong on Russia. This question also arises because of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s intemperate comments on Modi meeting Putin in Moscow. It is understood that Modi will also visit Poland along with Ukraine.

Modi has been correctly insisting on the path of peace and diplomacy for a resolution of the Ukraine issue. But the conflict is hardly ready for a resolution. Though Modi’s international reputation is strong, does India have the heft to play a role in matters of European security and bringing warring parties there together? This cruel question has to be faced squarely.

At a basic level, India can successfully deal with Trump or Harris as the next incumbent of the White House. There is bipartisan support in the US system for comprehensively and strongly developing India-US relations. This naturally includes the security sector. In no small measure, China is a factor in India, and the US fostering closer strategic ties. This is going to remain so. Hence, both countries would want the Indo-Pacific region to be organised in a manner that does not permit China to become its dominant power. Quad will be strengthened to play a role in this quest. Strategic issues to the west of India may not witness a complete coincidence of views between India and the US, but the gap is narrowing in how the two countries are considering West Asia. Israel’s continuing approach to Gaza is posing a problem, and it may worsen if Harris wins the election.

On trade and economic issues, both Trump and Harris would want closer ties, but his immigration policies and MAGA (Make America Great Again) programme will pose problems which a Harris administration may not. The real difference between a Trump and a Harris presidency for the Modi government would be in their differing approaches on the Indian government’s human rights policies.

The Trump administration was not really interested in the Modi government’s human rights policies. The prime manifestation of its attitude was witnessed in Trump refraining from commenting on the 2020 Delhi riots which occurred when he was in the Capital. It can be expected that Trump 2.0 will be no different on this issue. On the other hand, Harris will come out strongly on these matters. She is aligned with left-of-centre members of the Democratic Party who have been critical of the Citizenship Amendment Act and how the Modi government has dealt with India’s minorities. Congresswomen Pramila Jayapal, a vocal critic of the Modi government, has joined the Harris campaign. Harris is unlikely to hesitate in talking straight on these questions. This may be embarrassing for Modi.

In the light of all factors, it is a moot point whether the Modi government would want to see Harris as the US President despite her India connection.