Trump’s nuclear gamble risks global stability

AMERICAN President Donald Trump dropped a virtual bombshell on global nuclear stability and related nuclear non-proliferation protocols when he announced (October 29) that he had instructed the Pentagon (now Department of War) to immediately resume US nuclear weapons testing.

In his words: "Because of other countries' testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately."

The US has not conducted a full explosive nuclear test since September 1992. Later in that decade, nuclear tests were conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998. The last time a nuclear warhead was detonated was in September 2017, when North Korea conducted its sixth underground test. Since then, a global moratorium on nuclear testing has been accepted by all nuclear-weapon-capable nations and this has not been breached — until now.

Providing context to his dramatic announcement, Trump added a day later: "We've halted many years ago, but with others doing testing, I think it's appropriate that we do also."

While Russia was not mentioned explicitly, the reference was unambiguous. In the 10 days prior to Trump's announcement, Moscow tested two advanced nuclear-capable delivery systems — the Burevestnik (Skyfall) nuclear-powered cruise missile (October 21) and the extraordinary Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater torpedo (October 28). Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the Poseidon success, calling it a "doomsday weapon."

However, while both these delivery vehicles (one a cruise missile and the other an underwater torpedo) are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, testing them is not tantamount to an explosive nuclear test. Technically, they are outside the current arms control template.

The Kremlin cryptically noted that these were not nuclear-warhead explosions and added: "We hope President Trump was correctly informed" and reiterated that Russia tested delivery systems and not warheads.

There is no denying the fact that both the Burevestnik and the Poseidon are more lethal when fitted with a nuclear warhead and extraordinarily capable by way of unlimited endurance since they are nuclear powered. This will give Moscow the kind of assured deterrence that goes well beyond the current strategic capabilities that Russia has in its inventory.

It is reported that the Burevestnik flew 14,000 km in 15 hours evading radar detection in the October 21 test and demonstrated that it could pop up anywhere to acquire its designated target. Existing missile defences will not be able to detect this cruise missile and, hence, the visible US anxiety.

The Poseidon is an unmanned, nuclear-powered underwater vehicle with a range of 10,000 km and can attain a maximum speed of 100 knots (185 kmh) with the ability to operate at depths of 1,000 metres. This kind of capability makes the Poseidon almost immune to existing anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

A nuclear-tipped Poseidon when launched in combat will trigger a tectonic radioactive tsunami and have an apocalyptic effect unlike any other delivery vehicle. The doomsday scenario this poses to the globe and humanity is incomprehensible.

During the Cold War, both the US and the former USSR entered into the 1972 ABM (anti-ballistic missile) treaty, which essentially made them vulnerable to each other — the genesis of the MAD (mutually assured destruction) doctrine that laid the foundation for strategic stability. Seemingly absurd — survival predicated on destruction — the ABM was a complex, techno-strategic treaty that was the product of its times.

Conceived in the womb of mutual suspicion and mounting WMD (weapons of mass destruction) insecurity between the two superpowers, this treaty was the bedrock of global strategic stability.

However, in the aftermath of 9/11 ( 2001), the US unilaterally withdrew from the treaty in June 2002 and, thereby, sowed the seeds of palpable anxiety and insecurity in a Russia that had shrunk in size and self-confidence.

In the years that followed, Moscow resolved to redress the strategic equation with Washington and in 2015, the Poseidon was hinted at — a glint in Putin’s eye. In the last decade, there have been failed tests, scientists were killed in accidents, but the programme continued and success was achieved on October 21.

The trigger for the Russian Poseidon test may have been the Trump announcement days after he was sworn in for his second term. On January 27, 2025, a week after assuming office, Trump signed an executive order titled 'Establishing the Iron Dome for America' which declared that "The Secretary of Defense shall immediately begin planning and execution of a state-of-the-art missile defense shield including space-based sensors and interceptors."

The dome, now christened 'golden dome', when realised in its entirety, is expected to be the mother of all missile-defence systems and is part of the long-term US strategic goal under Trump. One estimate suggests that when fully proven to cover the entire US mainland — perhaps by 2045 — it will cost almost $3.6 trillion. First payments have already been made to Elon Musk's company Space X.

Will this programme, which recalls President Reagan, Star Wars and the end of the Cold War, bankrupt the US and/or Russia in the long run?

In the interim, Trump has cited 'others' carrying out covert nuclear tests (including Pakistan) and wants the latest nuclear warheads to be a part of the dome. Towards this end, he has indicated that the US will resume testing. Such a lurch would be reckless and undermine existing nuclear restraint with respect to testing.

The APLN (Asia-Pacific Leadership Network), a regional group focussed on nuclear matters, has issued a statement cautioning the US that "resuming nuclear testing introduces instability at a time when we need restraint and dialogue. It provides justification for nations considering their own nuclear weapons programs. It fractures the international consensus that has constrained nuclear competition for three decades." (disclosure — this author is a signatory to the statement).

Whether Trump will exercise nuclear restraint or violate the test ban redline is moot. India, which was always in the vanguard of global nuclear restraint and disarmament, must make its voice heard.

The stakes are very high.