US aid and regime change in Bangladesh
On January 26, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending all foreign assistance being provided through the US State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). He maintained that much of this aid was misaligned with US foreign policy objectives and even harmed US interests in many cases. The move draws the curtains on a long era during which the agency is also alleged to have functioned as a conduit for covert influence operations overseas.
The ascent of Trump and the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has renewed interest in how US taxpayers' money was spent under previous administrations. This has cast a spotlight on the working of organisations such as USAID, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and their grantees like the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), exposing inconsistencies in their operations.
Nowhere in South Asia has US intervention been more consequential than in Bangladesh. The country's former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was overthrown on August 5, 2024, has accused Washington of undermining her government through a web of influence operations, allegedly in retaliation for her refusal to cede control of Saint Martin's Island in the Bay of Bengal to the US, which was planning to set up an airbase there to counter China. The US government has denied these allegations. Hasina's son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, a US resident, said the statement attributed to her was fabricated.
Another motive of those in the US who interfered in Bangladesh's politics could have been their perception that India's influence in Bangladesh — because of its strong ties with Hasina's Awami League — had become excessive. They believed it was this support that reinforced Hasina's hold on power, rendering her government increasingly "authoritarian and corrupt" and, thereby, "eroding" Bangladesh's democratic framework. From their perspective, US involvement was a means to counterbalance India's sway.
The motivations behind the regime change project could be geopolitical, driven by the US-China strategic competition; a desire to "restore democracy" by weakening what was seen as an "increasingly authoritarian regime propped up by India"; or vested interests linked to the nexus between Bangladesh's current leadership and influential US figures.
What remains indisputable is that the collapse of Hasina's government has jeopardised a burgeoning economy and threatens to reverse decades of efforts to curb terrorism and radicalisation in the region.
The clampdown on USAID and its domino effect on organisations such as NED has brought out skeletons from these quasi-official organisations, offering an unusual glimpse into their operations. In a video posted on X in February, Elon Musk shared an interview with former US official Mike Benz, who confirmed that dissatisfaction within the US State Department over the 2018 Bangladesh election outcome prompted officials to consult USAID and the NED-funded IRI on strategies to destabilise her government. Considering her party's popular mandate, fomenting political unrest was seen as the only route towards regime change.
This led to the creation of an IRI programme called PAIRS (Promoting Accountability, Inclusivity and Resiliency Support Program, Bangladesh), as per a purportedly leaked report published in The Grayzone in September 2024. The programme arguably set in motion events that culminated in Hasina's ouster. While the document’s authenticity is unverified, it lays bare a scheme involving the training and funding of an assortment of players — civil society groups, student activists, music artists and LGBTQI+ members — to raise public opinion against Hasina.
The document describes itself as a "programme report" which situates its "political context" in what it describes as "anti-democratic trends" and the shrinking "space for political dissent and criticism" in Bangladesh. It notes that the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party is unable "to successfully mobilise opposition" while acknowledging that it remains "still the most possible party to drive power shift in the future."
It emphasises its focus on individual actors opposed to the government and "specific marginalised communities" such as Biharis, ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ community. The report details cultural initiatives undertaken to stimulate dissent. Notably, the project was providing financial support and capacity-building to local musicians and artists, especially those resonating with the youth. For instance, lawyer and rapper Towfique Ahmed was awarded advocacy grants for producing two music videos, Tui Parish (You Can!) and E Daay Kaar (Demand It!). Released on Facebook and YouTube, the former is a rallying cry for urban youth while the latter highlights social problems. Transgender dance troupes were given grants to stage performances in urban centres. The IRI awarded 11 advocacy grants, leading to 225 art pieces showing politico-social issues.
Franchise-building involved the training of student political participants, capacity-building programmes for civil society organisations and training tens of thousands of politicians. For such interventions, the IRI cited 'public opinion' surveys that "confirmed" democratic backsliding in Bangladesh. The NDI/IRI Joint Technical Assessment Mission —Bangladesh report of March 2024, highlighting political polarisation and state violence, could be seen as signalling an impending regime change.
A rapid escalation of events marked the final days of Sheikh Hasina's government. The agitation against her, which evolved into a students' movement, began with protests against job reservations in government services. The quota was felt to be discriminatory and in July 2024, the country's top court decreed that it should be reduced. However, instead of resolving the issue, protests against Hasina increased. The resistance points to careful planning. It drives home the changing nature of influence operations, where seemingly benign methods can be effectively deployed to achieve political ends.
From 2020-2024, Bangladesh received $2.29 billion aid, of which $1.73 billion came from USAID. Within days of the interim government assuming office, USAID signed a $200-million deal with it for governance and trade expansion.
Foreign interventions exacerbate divisions. The anti-Hindu violence and the consequent influx of Hindu refugees into India are evidence of this. The intervention in Bangladesh was arguably more about advancing narrow geopolitical agendas under the guise of promoting democracy than empowering local voices.
The effort to reimagine USAID’s mandate and infuse transparency will build renewed trust in the US system. As new powers build institutions similar to USAID, the dangers of influence operations remain real.
Courtesy: Observer Research Foundation
