Why Modi-Trump meeting remains elusive

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not going to Kuala Lumpur to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the India-ASEAN summit, which are being held on October 26-28. After speaking to his Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim, Modi posted on X, “Look forward to joining the ASEAN-India Summit virtually, and to further deepening of the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”.

The Ministry of External Affairs also confirmed that External Affairs Minister

S Jaishankar will represent Modi at the EAS. While Modi gave no reason for not going to Kuala Lumpur, Anwar Ibrahim noted that Modi informed him that he will be participating virtually as the Diwali festival “is still being celebrated at that time”. Ibrahim added “I respect that decision…”

It was widely felt that Modi would go to Kuala Lumpur if the India-US trade deal was completed prior to the EAS. Indeed, on October 22 morning, a financial newspaper implied that the deal had almost been done. It would involve the US reducing tariffs on Indian exports to 15-16% while India would gradually reduce its import of Russian oil and allow greater imports of non-genetically modified maize and soybean meal.

This report led to fairly widespread media reportage that developments on the trade deal front were such that Modi would go to Kuala Lumpur and meet President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the EAS. There was, however, no official reaction to these media reports.

Trump held a Diwali celebration at the Oval Office on October 22. Indian Ambassador Vinay Kwatra and Hindu members of his administration and leading Hindu US businesspersons were present.

Addressing the gathering, Trump mentioned that he had called up Modi to convey Diwali greetings. He also said that the two had talked about trade and Modi had assured him that India would reduce import of Russian oil, and that India also wanted the Ukraine war to end.

Trump went on to refer to a talk with Modi a ‘little while ago’ that there would be no India-Pakistan war. (Indian sources asserted that Pakistan did not figure during the Modi-Trump Diwali greetings call).

In his social media post, Modi did not refer to any of the points made by Trump, but to Diwali illuminating the world and uniting it against terrorism.

It clearly seems that Trump’s Oval Office comments led Modi to decide that his presence at the EAS could lead to an embarrassing exchange with Trump on the summit’s sidelines.

Hence, it would be best not to go, especially, as contrary to the media report, trade negotiations have still a distance to go. Modi also needs to avoid any controversy prior to the Bihar elections. Therefore, he has chosen to send Jaishankar to the EAS and will take part virtually in the India-ASEAN summit where Anwar Ibrahim is his ASEAN counterpart.

Modi’s decision not to go to Kuala Lumpur was in keeping with his earlier decision to skip the beginning of the new session of the United Nations General Assembly this year. That too ensured that he did not have to meet Trump in New York on any occasion. He has spoken to him on a few occasions telephonically and these conversations have led to different accounts of what came up between the two leaders. India has sought to convey its versions in a non-abrasive manner.

Thus, Modi’s diplomatic tactic in dealing with Trump seems to be to avoid face-to-face meetings and only have telephonic conversations.

He may consider this to be a valid way in dealing with Trump because of his oft-repeated claims which are at variance with the Indian position on Operation Sindoor and Russian oil purchases. However, it raises the question: was it wise of him to skip the Kuala Lumpur summits in the context of India’s relations with ASEAN countries and also the wider Indo-Pacific community? How would Modi’s absence in Kuala Lumpur be perceived by ASEAN leaders and Asian member-states of EAS?

Apart from the 10 ASEAN countries, EAS includes China, Japan, South Korea, India, US, Russia, Australia and New Zealand. Naturally, the Diwali pre-occupation reason will not cut ice because all EAS envoys in Delhi would have informed their capitals that the festival was over by October 22. Besides, Anwar Ibrahim would be personally familiar with the Diwali festival for it is a national holiday in Malaysia.

Modi has invested substantial diplomatic capital in enhancing India’s ties with ASEAN member countries. He renamed India’s ‘Look East’ policy as ‘Act East’ to indicate that India’s greater attention to its relationships with these states would include action on the ground.

The measures would include enhancing trade and two-way investments, security cooperation, people-to-people and cultural contacts and giving a greater impetus to implementation of projects.

All ASEAN countries have always wanted a closer connect with India. They welcomed Modi’s approach. Indeed, this was demonstrated when their leaders collectively accepted to be ‘chief guests’ at the 2018 Republic Day celebrations.

This was not only a stunning gesture on their part but also a confirmation of the maturing of India-ASEAN ties which began with India becoming a sectoral dialogue partner of the organisation in 1992. This was upgraded to full dialogue status in December 1995. The process of India-ASEAN summits began in 2002. A decade later, this relationship was raised to a ‘strategic partnership’ and in 2022 to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’. India has taken part in EAS since its inception in 2005. It also established a separate Mission to ASEAN in 2015.

India has to be conscious of China’s moves to comprehensively consolidate its relations with the ASEAN states. Its economic and commercial ingress has gone up substantially and so has its involvement in their infrastructural development through the Belt and Road Initiative.

In the face of Chinese pressures, these countries want reliable partners. India has to meet this reliability test through an ongoing highest political-level dialogue as well as its actions. Modi’s absence from Kuala Lumpur, for what the ASEAN leadership may consider for ‘extraneous’ reasons, would detract from what India wishes to accomplish in ASEAN.

Vivek Katju is former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs.