Why the unity of INDIA bloc is faltering

Formed to take on the electoral juggernaut of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) during the 2024 General Elections, the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) shook the BJP and the Narendra Modi regime, but it could not uproot it.

The organisationally strong and ideologically coherent BJP has been able to put its act together with convincing electoral victories in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi. Trapped in its own contradictions, the INDIA bloc, that began as a 28-party coalition, has appeared wandering without an aim since the 2024 General Elections ended.

Of course, the Lok Sabha got a recognised Opposition and a leader of Opposition after a decade. But the leadership issue of the organisationally weak Congress at its various tiers has remained unresolved and it has failed to fix its breached fortress. The other components of the bloc appear to be struggling to protect their local citadels rather than standing united to achieve convincing electoral wins.

The Haryana Assembly poll is a stark example of the lack of understanding among the coalition partners. Prepared to go under the INDIA alliance bloc, the AAP had initially demanded 10 seats. It later came down to five, but the Congress was agreeable to only three. Also, the AAP leadership thought that it was being offered seats in constituencies where the BJP was strong, reducing its chances of a win.

The prospects of the Congress-plus-AAP segment of the INDIA bloc are difficult to project, but perhaps an amalgamated cadre could have bridged the voter hiatus that led to the Congress’ defeat.

The alleged irregularities in the voting list that the ECI closed its eyes to would still have remained, but a composite alliance would have had better prospects.

The election in Maharashtra also exposes the error of judgment by each of the three partners — the NCP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and Congress. The partners ended up making an unviable seat distribution. The NCP was given lesser seats than it could conveniently win, the Shiv Sena took up more than it could have successfully contested, so did the Congress.

Tied up between Uddhav Thackeray, Supriya Sule (NCP) and local Congress leaders, the leadership issue, too, remained muddled.

In the Delhi elections, it was Arvind Kejriwal who was not prepared to contest in partnership with the Congress. Despite the fact that the party did not have a sufficient number of winnable candidates, Kejriwal announced a solo run even before a seat-sharing formula with the Congress could be worked out.

This irked Rahul Gandhi and other Congress leaders and they decided to contest the poll on all the seats despite minimal winnability. This harmed the AAP to such an extent that even Arvind Kejriwal lost the election. It was equally unwise for the Congress to celebrate the AAP's defeat. The BJP will surely use it in the future elections against INDIA.

The silver lining in this gloomy scenario is that various components of INDIA have supported the AAP. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah sarcastically summed it up well: “Aur lado aapas mein” (keep fighting among yourselves). The hope for the alliance to come together in the future elections is still alive. The results of the three Assembly elections, both in terms of the final results and the strategic approach, clearly indicate that the alliance is neither united nor coordinated. In order to make itself relevant to the country and poll battle-ready, INDIA needs to address the causes of its disunity.

Unity was sacrificed at the altar of consolidation of individual parties and leaders in their supposed strongholds. Arvind Kejriwal did not share the imagined strength of the AAP in Delhi with the alliance. Similarly, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) leaders in Maharashtra attempted to hold on to their bastions in a bid for the chief-ministerial throne and sacrificed the collective coalitional advantage.

The dilemma of the Congress is also noteworthy. Though Rahul Gandhi has put the alliance before the party in several instances, the party's continuing quest for its past glory is a hurdle in the way of alliance politics. Arvind Kejriwal was unreasonably rigid in Haryana and Delhi. Flexibility in organisational matters in contesting the elections in the alliance mode would have been more advantageous.

The elections in West Bengal are still a year away, but Mamata Banerjee has already announced that she would not have any alliance with the Congress. It would take some persuasion from Rahul and Akhilesh to climb West Bengal's electoral hill.

Ideological and programmatic vacuum are inherent to INDIA. The parties in the coalition, including the Congress, TMC, Samajwadi Party, CPM, CPI, NCP, Shiv Sena (UBT), RJD, DMK, JMM, AAP and JKNC, are distant from one another.

The Congress had attempted to revert to its previous self with the 2024 Nyay Patra (manifesto). The Samajwadi Party's ideological mooring is prosaic, so is that of the CPM and the CPI. The NCP and the TMC, offshoots of the Congress, are closer to it. While the state parties are stuck in their regionalism, the AAP has declared itself non-ideological and apes the BJP's Hindutva.

Apparently, building ideological coherence in INDIA under the circumstances is nearly impossible. However, this shortcoming can be overcome by forming a well-structured common programme, which can be easily understood by the voters.

Thus, both the organisational and programmatic issues deserve urgent attention. The leadership issue is closely linked to a cohesive organisation. The Congress, being a historical entity in this alliance, is seen as a threat by the others despite its current weak state. While the Congress must aim to restore and renovate its organisation, for now, it must project a non-threatening stance to the partners.