Why voters didn’t give BJP another chance

Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel and Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh have said, and they are right in a way, that in Karnataka, the Congress has won and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has lost. But it is Congress leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah who has described the outcome more accurately. He has said that the people of the state have voted against the maladministration and corruption of the BJP despite numerous visits by the PM and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

This is the third time in a row that the BJP has lost the electoral battle in Karnataka. It had been defeated in 2013 and 2018 too. In 2013, the Congress had a decisive majority. That’s why the party, led by Siddaramaiah, managed a full term. In 2018, the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) formed a coalition government; a year later, defections helped the BJP turn the tables on its rivals. The Congress is now back to the pole position of 2013.

It is also clear that the BJP has held on to its stronghold in urban Bengaluru, coastal Mangalore belt and the Hubballi area. It is in rural Karnataka, in the old Hyderabad-Karnataka areas of Raichur and Gulbarga, that the Congress maintains its majority. At the end of the day, the Congress is the clear winner and the people of Karnataka have shown that there is no ambiguity in their choice.

It would be hasty to assert that the defeat of the BJP in Karnataka is a prelude to its defeat in the 2024 General Election. This has been a purely local election, which is what it should be. The BJP, too, fought it as a local poll but it has been trying hard since 2014 to leverage the image of Prime Minister Modi to win the Assembly elections. It has, however, not been lucky. The party may have to abandon the ‘double-engine sarkar’ slogan, which intends to convey that a BJP government in the state would be better because there is a BJP government at the Centre. It is turning out to be a politically immature message.

The party lost the Assembly elections in Bihar, 2015; Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, 2018; West Bengal, 2021; Himachal Pradesh, 2022; Punjab, 2017 and 2022; and Delhi, 2015 and 2020. PM Modi is perhaps no longer the mascot for the BJP that he is being projected as.

The lesson is also clear for the Congress. It is not Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi Vadra who won the election for the party in Karnataka. It is the local leadership led by Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar which steered the party to victory. This should also alert the analysts that the Congress is not weak or strong on the basis of the leadership provided by the Nehru-Gandhis; it has an identity and strength of its own that goes beyond the much vaunted charisma of the family. This should give hope and courage to the Congress leaders that the party can stand on its own feet. This does not mean that the party and the coterie around the family will give up their naive belief in the mystique of the Nehru-Gandhis.

Leaders of the BJP are also aware that they cannot win elections on the basis of ideology alone, though PM Modi and others try to play it up as if their electoral survival depends on it. They know that local issues matter much more; the BJP harping on the contentious Hindutva ideology shows desperation that if other things fail, this should see them through. It might be argued that where they win, it is because of Hindutva, as in Assam, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, but when they lose, as in West Bengal, Delhi and Punjab, it is not due to Hindutva. But it is clear that even in states like Uttar Pradesh and Assam, people voted for the BJP not for the sake of PM Modi or Hindutva, as many of us have assumed to be the case, but because they do not consider the alternative good enough. And in places where they find an alternative, like in West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, they voted for the other party.

This should alert the Congress and other Opposition parties that it is not necessary to be an anti-Modi coalition or use an anti-Hindutva plank to defeat the BJP in 2024, but they have to show that they are strong on the ground in different states and that they speak in the same voice about the issues that are mostly economic and social rather than ideological.

The ideologically committed voters are a minority, while the majority keep their options open. One cannot say that the people of Karnataka voted for secularism of the Congress and rejected BJP’s Hindutva. Rather, they voted on the issue of local governance. It would be misinterpretation to view the Karnataka verdict as a victory of secularism. People are pragmatic and do not care much for ideology. Of course, each party needs to maintain its set of core beliefs, whether secular or communal. But people generally vote for parties on grounds other than belief systems. That is why all political parties make those cynical compromises to win elections and to be in power. Ideology is put on the back burner.