Centre rejects New York Times report on Covid toll as ‘outrageous’

New Delhi, May 27

The government on Thursday rejected as “baseless and outrageous” a New York Times report that estimates Indian Covid toll at 42 lakh in a worst case scenario, 13.3 times the official toll of 3,15,235.

Late reporting possible

It is possible to have missed some deaths, but NYT projections are outrageous.-  VK Paul, Niti Aayog

The report cites experts to present three scenarios. In the best case, they estimate real infections at 15 times higher than reported, which means 40 crore cases. It assumes infection fatality rate at 0.15 per cent, throwing up 6 lakh deaths whereas official IFR is 0.05 per cent.

The second scenario assumes that actual cases are 20 times higher (53 crore) and an IFR of 0.30 per cent (16 lakh deaths). The worst scenario estimates actual infections at 26 times (70 crore) and an IFR of 0.6 per cent (42 lakh deaths).

VK Paul, member, health, Niti Aayog, said the question of mortality concealment did not arise. “The NYT report is based on assumptions. We have a strong mortality tracking system which has stood the test of time. Adjustments of late reporting can happen in a large country. It is possible to have missed some deaths, but NYT projections are outrageous,” he said. “It can be argued that actual infections were higher than detected. That can happen anywhere. But on what basis did NYT exaggerate India’s IFR from 0.05 per cent to 0.3 per cent (three times) and 0.6 per cent (12 times),” said Paul.

Top virologist Shahid Jameel, however, argued that Indian Covid deaths were not being counted properly. — TNS