Save Indus treaty

THE landmark Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which has survived India-Pakistan wars and diplomatic tensions over the past 64 years, finds itself at a crossroads today. India has served a notice on its neighbour, seeking a review and modification of the treaty in view of ‘fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances that require a reassessment of obligations’. Since January 2023, New Delhi has repeatedly written to Islamabad to initiate talks on revising the World Bank-brokered treaty, but all this has merely been water off a duck’s back. Pakistan, which red-flagged its water crisis during a UN Security Council meeting in February this year, is banking on the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague to resolve the festering dispute over water-sharing.

River waters know no boundaries. Considering their mutual reliance on this precious natural resource, the two nations must realise that the IWT’s survival is integral to ensuring regional water security. Intransigence and one-upmanship have made a bilateral settlement elusive. India has unreasonably indicated that there will be no more meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission, which includes officers from both nations, till the two governments discuss the renegotiation of the treaty. This ‘Big Brother’ approach may prove to be counterproductive as Pakistan has managed to internationalise the issue and is portraying India as the uncooperative party. The established dispute resolution mechanism — which has the provision for neutral experts as well as the arbitration court — should be honoured by both countries. Every effort must be made to keep the IWT alive and relevant.

Amid its muscle-flexing over the Indus treaty, India must not lose sight of the Brahmaputra basin, which lacks a water management framework. This major river system has India, China and Bangladesh among the stakeholders. Delhi must keep a close eye on China’s proposed Great Bend Dam, which is expected to expand the country’s capacity to store and withhold/release water. Beijing’s ‘upper riparian’ status should not deter Delhi from insisting on multilateral cooperation.