Victory margins set to spring surprise

As the vote counting begins tomorrow, many prominent candidates in Haryana’s Assembly polls face high stakes. Despite exit polls favouring the Congress, several constituencies are expected to yield surprising outcomes.

This election, marked by intense campaigns from both the Congress and BJP, saw regional parties largely sidelined, with few exceptions. Yet, many seats remain too close to call, and experts foresee unexpected results in key constituencies.

“There are several Assembly seats that remain completely unpredictable,” remarked political expert Prof (retd) ML Goyal. “Strongholds of Haryana’s influential dynasties may be decided by razor-thin margins. Constituencies such as Adampur, Ellenabad, Uchana, Tosham, Sirsa, Ateli, Bahadurgarh, Rai, Gohana, Gharaunda, and Bhiwani are highly contested.”

Tough seats

Adampur | Ellenabad | Uchana | Tosham | Sirsa | Ateli | Bahadurgarh | Rai | Gohana | Gharaunda | Bhiwani

Margins below 100 votes

• 2014: Jai Tirath Dahiya (Cong) defeated Inderjeet (INLD) by 3 votes in Rai (Sonepat).
• 1982: Bhagmal (Janata Party) defeated Prabhuram (Cong) by 10 votes in Sadaura (Yamunanagar).
• 1996: Ramesh Chander (BJP) defeated Ramesh Rana (Samta Party) by 11 votes in Gharaunda (Karnal).
• 2005: Rekha Rana (INLD) defeated Jaipal Sharma (Cong) by 21 votes in Gharaunda.
• 1991: Virender Singh (Janta Dal) defeated Jaswant Singh (Cong) by 38 votes in Narnaund.

Margins over 50,000 votes

• 2005: Kiran Choudhry (Cong) won by 1,25,520 votes in Tosham.
• 2005: Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Cong) won by 1,03,335 votes in Kiloi (Rohtak).
• 2005: Savitri Jindal (Cong) won by 1,02,231 votes in Hisar.
• 2000: Ajay Chautala (INLD) won by 86,011 votes in Rori (Sirsa).
• 1986: Bansi Lal (Cong) won by 80,819 votes in Tosham (Bhiwani).
• 2009: Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Cong) won by 72,100 votes in Kiloi (Rohtak).

In Adampur, the Bishnoi family’s 56-year unbeaten streak is under threat, while INLD leader Abhay Singh Chautala is locked in a tough contest in Ellenabad. Similarly, Tosham and Uchana, the long-time bastions of the Bansi Lal and Birender Singh families, are seeing strong challenges.

The past electoral results reveal how close the contests can get. In 2014, Congress candidate Jai Tirath Dahiya clinched the Rai seat by just three votes. Gharaunda is also known for tough contests, with three elections decided by margins under 100 votes. On the other hand, landslide victories have happened as well, with former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda winning by over 50,000 votes in three separate elections. Kiran Choudhry holds the record for the largest victory margin, securing a win by over 1.25 lakh votes in Tosham in 2005.