Cancer deaths to rise by 75% in next 25 years; ageing among driving factors: Study

Yearly deaths from cancer could rise by nearly 75 per cent in the next 25 years to 18.6 million with a country’s economic growth and an increasingly ageing population being major driving factors, according to a global study published in The Lancet journal.

New cases of cancer are estimated to increase by 61 per cent to 30.5 million in 2050.

Researchers also estimated that since 1990, deaths from cancer increased 74 per cent to 10.4 million and new cases more than doubled to 18.5 million in 2023, with majority of those living in low and middle-income countries affected.

India was found to see a jump of 26.4 per cent in cancer rates between 1990-2023 — among the highest in the world. China was found to see a fall in rates by 18.5 per cent.

The team added that more than 40 per cent of deaths due to cancer around the world are linked to 44 risk factors which can be addressed, including tobacco use, an unhealthy diet, and high blood sugar, thereby presenting an opportunity for prevention.

“Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritised in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings,” said lead author Dr Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the US’ University of Washington, which coordinates the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

The GBD study looks at data from 204 countries and territories to discern trends and patterns in disease and quantify health loss and risk factors across places and time.

The researchers added that while overall death rates across the world fell by 24 per cent between 1990 and 2023, disparities in reduction rates were seen between high-and low-income countries.

Rates of new cases worsened in low-income (up by 24 per cent) and lower-middle-income countries (up by 29 per cent), underscoring the disproportionate growth occurring in regions with lower resources, the team said.

“Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources,” Dr Force said.

She added that greater efforts are required to reduce disparities in health service delivery — such as access to accurate and timely diagnosis, and quality treatment — in ensuring equitable cancer outcomes the world over.

The authors wrote, “The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30.5 million cases and 18.6 million deaths from cancer globally, 60.7 per cent and 74.5 per cent increases from 2024, respectively.”