Avalanche warning was already issued for Chamoli on Thursday

With agencies racing against time to rescue Border Roads Organisation workers who were trapped after an avalanche hit the remote Mana village in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli this afternoon, The Tribune has learnt that a yellow-level avalanche warning bulletin had been issued for this hilly district on Thursday evening.

DRDO’s Defence Geoinformatics Research Establishment (DGRE), the organisation tasked with mapping, forecasting and mitigation of landslides and avalanches to ensure safe movement of troops, had at 5 pm on Thursday (February 27) issued the yellow alert. This bulletin, uploaded on the National Disaster Management Authority portal for access by relevant agencies, was for 24 hours — 5 pm on February 27 to 5 pm on February 28.

Fatal avalanches

• Feb 2021: 80 killed, 200 missing in northern Chamoli
• April 2021: 11 died in Chamoli
• Feb 2022: 7 soldiers died in Arunachal’s Kameng sector
• Oct 2022: 16 died at Draupadi ka Danda (Uttarakhand)
• Feb 2023: 2 Polish skiers killed in Gulmarg
• April 2023: 7 killed in Sikkim

On Friday, DGRE issued a red alert for Chamoli and an orange alert for the other areas. Red alerts have also been issued for most upper reaches in Himachal Pradesh, Kargil, and Jammu and Kashmir amidst forecasts by the weather department of heavy snow in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

The Chamoli region has experienced several major avalanches in recent years. Scientists from the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology analysed satellite images and seismic data of the avalanche zone and found that the region was seismically active before the disaster hit.

It is currently unclear why the yellow warning bulletin went unheeded with sources saying: “A yellow alert advises caution but not complete suspension of movement or evacuation which is advised only if there is a risk level of red or black. An orange alert also calls for restricted movement on selected routes.”

The exact location of the avalanche and its exact time is hard to predict, say scientists.

On the rising frequency of avalanches in the Indian Himalayas, DGRE studies have found that in the past 25 years, winters in the northwestern Himalayas are getting warmer and wetter (more rainfall) with less snowfall. “More rainfall and increasing temperatures lead to a greater frequency of landslides and avalanches,” the studies say. —TNS