CEA Nageswaran sees India-US trade agreement by March 2026

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed confidence that India and the US could finalise a long-pending bilateral trade agreement by the end of the current financial year, even as geopolitical variables continue to slow the process.

In an interview to Bloomberg TV, Nageswaran said most trade-specific negotiations had already been settled, but the final breakthrough now depended as much on broader strategic developments as on bilateral issues.

“Right now it is difficult to put a timeline to it. We know through multiple rounds of conversations that most of the trade-related issues have been sorted out. This is as much a matter of geopolitical development as it is of trade,” he said.

Pressed on whether missing a year-end deadline would have economic implications, the CEA acknowledged a drag on market sentiment. “We have two and a half weeks to go. I’d be surprised if the deal isn’t sealed by the end of the financial year. I was hoping it would be wrapped up by November-end, but it has proved elusive. I agree it has affected investor sentiment,” he said.

His comments came on a day the government informed Parliament that India and the US were in talks to conclude a “mutually beneficial, multi-sector” bilateral trade agreement.

Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh said the two countries share a comprehensive strategic partnership spanning trade, energy, defence and technology, but Washington’s recent executive orders on migration, reciprocal tariffs and visas have created new operational challenges.

The US imposed reciprocal tariffs under national emergency provisions on July 31, 2025, followed by an additional 25 per cent duty on select Indian exports in August in response to India’s continued import of Russian oil. Several sectors, however, remain exempt, including crude and petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, electronics and IT services.

Singh said ministries were closely engaging US counterparts to mitigate the impact of the measures and consulting Indian exporters to assess emerging disruptions. Negotiations towards the trade pact, he added, were ongoing, he added.