Despite Modi-Xi bonhomie, no change in military posture in eastern Ladakh

Despite the recent thaw in relations with China, the Indian Army’s military posture in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is not expected to change for now.

Sources said the Army’s ‘winter deployment’ — which is just beginning — will remain in ‘equilibrium’ with the strength on the Chinese side.

The number of troops and the level of readiness is expected to be the same as last winter, largely because the ground situation along the boundary has remained unchanged since October 21 last year, when the two sides announced a ‘patrolling arrangement’. That arrangement led to disengagement of troops from two friction points at Depsang and Demchok.

The Army’s winter deployment of personnel, equipment and weapons along the LAC differs from that in the summer. In winter, snow covers the mountain passes and blocks natural routes, leading to curbed patrolling.

The LAC, which serves as the de facto boundary, had witnessed a massive Chinese build-up in April 2020. India mirrored the stance, deploying additional troops, artillery guns, tanks, rocket launchers, helicopters and UAVs. Though the situation has since eased, it has not reverted to normal or the pre-April 2020 status quo.

After the disengagement in October 2024, the next steps remain pending, keeping the Army cautious. India has proposed a ‘three-D’ stepwise approach to cool tempers along the LAC. The first ‘D’, disengagement, was completed in October 2024, involving the pullback of armed troops from eyeball-to-eyeball positions. The remaining two steps — de-escalation and de-induction — are the tougher part.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, on separate occasions in the past three months, have raised the issue of de-escalation with their respective Chinese counterparts.

Meanwhile, the next steps in border management were outlined last month in a joint document on August 19, after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in New Delhi.

On August 31, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Tianjin, where Modi emphasised the need for peace and tranquillity along the border areas to ensure the smooth development of bilateral ties.

“There was understanding on the need to maintain peace on the borders using the existing mechanisms and avoid disturbances to the overall relationship going forward,” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said after the meeting. “The two sides will arrive at an understanding on how these mechanisms for delimitation-related talks are to proceed,” Misri added.