IAF's declining combat power a real threat

The Indian Air Force Chief, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, flagging the need for making 35-40 fighter jets annually stems from a real threat of IAF’s combat power declining if immediate steps are not taken.

The delay on making the 83 contracted Tejas Mark-1A jets has raised fears. Public sector company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the maker of the Tejas , has said it will make 24 of these jets in the next financial year. In February 2021, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) placed a Rs 48,000-crore order for these 83 jets with deliveries scheduled to commence in March 2024. Not a single plane has been delivered so far.

Aging fleet

From 2029-30 onwards, the IAF’s Jaguar, MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 jet fleets -- all inducted in phases during the 1980s – are slated to retire in batches. These four types of jets are about 250 in number and operating on an extended life cycle.

These 83 jets are just to fill a part of the existing void. The real threat emerges from 2029-30 onwards when the IAF’s Jaguar, MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 jet fleets -- all inducted in phases during the 1980s – are slated to retire in batches. These four types of jets are about 250 in number and operating on an extended life cycle.

IAF needs new inductions. Programmes for procuring and manufacturing of new planes with better capabilities are running simultaneously on multiple fronts, but may not meet the needs or timelines.

Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (retd) says: "The statement of the Air Chief brings out the real urgency for urgent procurement of aircraft to prevent further depletion of squadron strength, which is very low indeed”.

So why the alarm bells now? Almost five-six years are needed to procure high-end military technology and this includes cost negotiations, contract signing, manufacturing of jets, aligning and mating right type of missiles and training of pilots, before the jets can be inducted for actual combat. The order of 36 Rafales is an example. India and France signed an MoU in January 2016 for the Rafale. The last lot of the jets arrived n 2022.

Among the projects in the pipeline are a ‘make in India’ by a foreign player is a key component of future plan. A RFI (Request for Information) to procure 114 multi role fighter aircraft (MRFA) has foreign makers interested. It will take at least 7-8 years from now for the first plane to come.

The second part of the Indian plan involves the advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA), proposed to be twin-engine 5th generation stealth fighter. Its first flight is scheduled in 2028, flight testing and validation will follow before production that is targeted for 2034.

Between the Tejas Mark 1A and the AMCA, the plan is to have a LCA Mark-2 – also known as the medium weight fighter (MWF). This is expected to see its first prototype fly by 2026 and start production by 2029.

Meanwhile, Director General of the Centre of Air Power Studies (CAPS) Air Vice Marshal Anil Golani says “the situation (delay in Tejas) is serious, should be a wake-up call for everyone”.

The IAF at present has 31 squadrons against the 42 mandated by the government to tackle a collusive threat from China and Pakistan.